Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 22, 2015

Bayern Munich really made sure of it last night in a match where there was no real DRT. Missed a trick I suppose laying the 0-0 halftime score. PSG continued their woeful away form in the Champions League with a 2-0 loss to Barcelona. MK Dons and Preston were emphatic in victory . With the former, there was a chance to lay the 0-0 for the 2nd half, such was the need for goals!

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

  • Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

  • Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

  • Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

  • Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

  • Lay the underdog  scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

12pm -Shandong Luneng v Binh Duong  - 1.14 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the AFC Champions League

Shandon Luneng

  • Both teams have scored in 7 of their last 8 AFC matches.
  • A 4-4 draw last time out saw Shandon 1-3 down!
  • Have struggled at home in 2014 with a Draw, Loss, Loss, Loss , Draw

Binh Duong

  • No wins yet in the AFC
  • Lost 2-3 to Shandong in February after leading 2-1 - DRT city!!
  • A recent 1-1 with Joenbok Motors came care of a 90th minute goal.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both sides are poor in this competition but the market is emphatic. The 2-3 Shandong win in head to heads was anything but emphatic. They are expected to score 3+ goals today. Given their recovery from 2-1 down last time out, this could be a good DRT match.
  • As ever with 1.14 shots, we do expect a goal before halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as you can.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:45pm - Dundee v Celtic  - 1.32 away

Standout Stats

  • 8 Celtic wins in the last 9 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 1st in the SPL. Celtic have a 5 point lead over Aberdeen.

Dundee

  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 16 at home.
  • 1-1 draw at home and 2-1 loss away v Celtic this season.
  • Only 2 losses in their last 13 matches came away from home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 81% of home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Scored first in 10 of 16 home matches.

Celtic

  • Only 1 0-0
  • No defeat in 7 away matches, scoring in their last 13 away matches
  • Only 4 defeats all season.
  • 12 wins in their last 14 matches.
  • 11 clean sheets in their last 15 matches but conceded last 2 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 10 wins in their last 12 away.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Lay Dundee if they score first, and they could today. They don't tend to beat Celtic but do score against them this season
  • We cannot discount a draw, but given the need from Celtic, lay any late draw as they will be pushing for a win. This is a pivotal match for Celtic. If they lose, Aberdeen are only 2 points behind them.
  • This is the 1st of 2 matches v Dundee FC for Celtic in recent weeks, the 2nd is 1st May. They'll want to lay down a marker today.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:45pm - Livingston v Hibernian  - 1.62 away

Standout Stats

  • This year in the Championship Hibs have won 2-1, 0-4 and 2-1 when playing Livingston. Note the 0-4 occured in the last away trip for Hibs.
  • This is 10th v 3rd in the Scottish Championship.

Livingston

  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 matches and last 3 at home
  • Have conceded in their last 11 matches
  • Nice little run of a draw, 2 wins and a draw v Rangers. So could be a threat today v Hibs
  • Hearts recently only won 0-1 and 2-3 at Livingston.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Hibs

  • No draw in 10 matches
  • Scored in their last 8 matches away
  • 2 match winning streak
  • 7 wins in their last 10 matches. Recent defeats v Rangers, Raith and Queen of the South
  • Beat Hearts 2-0 at home last match
  • No 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A low profile match for me, this one. Livingston are obviously confident at home and have only just been beaten recently by Hearts, single goal in it.
  • Both teams could score today . Hibs should not lose so lay Livingston if they score first.

7:45pm - Monaco v Juventus  - 2.36 away

Standout Stats

  • A 57th minute Juventus goal was all that separated these 2 in Turin. That famed Monaco defence could not be breached from open play.
  • What are the permutations? Well, Monaco did not score an away goal, so, if Juventus score a single goal, Monaco need to win 3-1 to progress.
  • Real advantage Juventus today.
  • I think we should put the last Monaco home match in context. It was a deliberate 0-2 loss to Arsenal as Monaco progressed with that scoreline. Prior to this, 3 consecutive home clean sheets tells you all about Monaco's thought processes at home.
  • 89% of Monaco matches this Champions League ( CL) campaign have been under 2.5 goals.
  • 5 of Monaco's 7 goals have been scored in the last 1/2 hour of matches. I suppose this fits in rather well with a team keeping a clean sheet, then nicking the winner.
  • Juventus themselves have been adept at keeping clean sheets.4 clean sheets in their last 5 CL matches came v Malmo, Atl Madrid, Dortmund and Monaco.
  • The 3 goals scored away at Dortmund last away match were very eye-catching.
  • With Monaco keeping 89% under 2.5 goals, Juventus have kept 67% under 2.5 goals this CL.
  • 9 of 13 Juventus goals scored 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Advantage Juventus today as they did not concede an away goal. As I say, if Juventus score first, Monaco need to win 3-1 . Juventus could tolerate a 2-1 loss and still go through.
  • If Monaco score first, we are on parity here. AS the Juventus goal was only a penalty, this suggests these 2 sides are well-matched.
  • What chance another under 2.5 goals match? Perhaps back 0-0 pre match and hope this is a tight match at halftime.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:45pm - Real Madrid v Atl Madrid  - 1.92 home

Standout Stats

  • Atl Madrid are unbeaten in the last 9 head to heads. 1-1, 1-2, 2-2 for Atl Madrid in the last 3 visits to Real Madrid. Of course any of these scorelines is actually enough to see them progress in the Champions League.
  • A 0-0 last match does see advantage Atl Madrid with the away goal rule.
  • Looking strictly at the CL form, Real Madrid have slightly had the easier run-in. They have played the likes of Basel, Ludogorets, Liverpool and Schalke.
  • Real actually lost 3-4 to Schalke but that was after winning 0-2 away so context please!
  • 2/3rd of Real's CL matches have seen a clean sheet.
  • Atl Madrid have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 8 matches. The word "suffocation " springs to mind. In their last 4 CL matches, they have posted a 0-0, 1-0 loss, 1-0, 0-0. 78% clean sheets and 67% under 2.5 goals.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • It is rather compelling that Atl Madrid are unbeaten in the last 9 head to heads. If they score today, you feel that they will be tough to score 2 goals against. In Real's recent league match, Gareth Bale went off injured, there was no Benzema either.  The excellent Modric, who has been superb in midfield since his return, is also out for Real Madrid. These are 3 massive blows to Real tonight.
  • A value angle tonight? I would lay Real Madrid if they score first.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TENNIS My focus on the tennis will revolve around the "Obvious" bets which should not result in a shock result. 12: 30pm - Albert Montanes v David Ferrer  - 1.05 away Given this is in Spain, what chance a 0-2 set betting punt on David Ferrer? 1.2 for the 2-0 set betting is more appealing. 5 consecutive straight sets wins for David Ferrer includes 3 sets in the French Open. On only 1 occasion did Montanes post more than 3 games in a single set. This should be a cruise for Ferrer today.
  • David Ferrer should win 2 sets to nil as he has done on numerous occasions. Back David Ferrer or 2 sets to 1 if Montanes wins the first set .
2:15pm - Nicolas Almagro v Rafael Nadal  - 1.15 away - Rafa in Spain! Yes Please. 123rd v 4th in the world. Head to heads are 11 to 1 in Nadal's favour. Rafa has dropped at least a set in his last 3 clay matches. Almagro seemed to have a by in the first round here at Barcelona.
  • Rafa has dropped a set in each of his last 3 clay matches. Let's hope Almagro wins the first set. We can a) lay Almagro 2-0 set betting at lower odds, b) back Rafa 2-1 set betting c) back Rafa are much higher odds than the 1.15 pre match.
As I get more accustomed to researching tennis matches, I think I'll be able to spot some more potential "value angles in" for you. It all really revolves around waiting for the first set to finish. I find tennis trading is also idea predominantly on what I call "key points" Key points can be exemplied as
  • the strong favourite going a mini break down in a tie breaker.
  • strong favourite 0-40 down on serve when about to lose a crucial set.