Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a video at DRT Facebook. I may not be able to telegram today as I have a visa appointment.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

18:00 - Man City v Aston Villa - 1.25 Man City

Man City - 2nd

  • 5 consecutive wins, 3 at home.
  • No defeat in 9 and in 8 at home.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 8/9 at home.
  • Dropped points tend to come v the top 5.
  • 9 goals scored within the first half hour at home.

Aston Villa - 11th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 came away v Man Utd latest.
  • 1-1-3-1-1 goals scored away recently.
  • Scored in their last 8 away.
  • Loss away v 1st, beat 3rd away 0-1.

Conclusions

  • Aston Villa have a 1-1 and 2-1 loss away v Chelsea and Man Utd latest so may score today but not win.
  • Man City have twice failed to score at home in the first 20 minutes when these odds, but got at least a goal before halftime. You may want to back 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted in the halftime score market if Man City haven't scored by the 20th minute mark.

20:15 - Fulham v Man Utd - 1.53 Man Utd

Fulham - 18th

  • 5 draws ended with a 0-1 loss v Chelsea, Fulham were down to 10 men 2nd half.
  • 1-0-1-0-1-0 goals scored recently. 1-0-1-0-1-1 goals conceded recently.
  • 3 draws and a loss at home last 4 home matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 at home.
  • Not played the top 3 at home.

Man Utd - 1st

  • In 7 away matches, United scored 2+ goals but recently, they have scored 1-0 goals away v Burnley and Liverpool.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 12 matches and in 9 away.
  • 100% wins away v 15th and lower.
  • 8/11 goals conceded away came 1st half.
  • 15 of 22 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Fulham cannot score that 2nd goal, as has occurred recently, they limit themselves to a 1-0 win (they are unlikely to keep Man Utd out!) and 1-1. Man Utd are in excellent form and are keeping clean sheets themselves. They have 100% wins v 15th and lower.
  • Fulham have obviously improved markedly but may still not win.
  • Note Man Utd tend to score a lot 2nd half away from home.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

20:15 - Livingston v Celtic - 1.70 Celtic

  • 0-0 in the most recent head to head which was the last match. There was concern regarding the Celtic team and Covid.
  • So, for me, there is little for me to research.

SPANISH LA LIGA

18:00 - Getafe v Huesca - 1.95 Getafe

Getafe - 13th

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches came away v newly promoted sides.
  • 1-0-1-1-0-1-0 goals scored at home recently.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 0-1 loss v 17th, 1-0 win v 19th.
  • 75% of goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Huesca - 20th

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score last 2 matches.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • Conceded in their last 5 and last 6 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away, albeit 5 draws, v 14th and lower.
  • 12/18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Huesca are not without a chance if their unbeaten form v 14th and lower can extend one place up to 13th. Lots of draws though so they may be vulnerable if scoring first.
  • Getafe need to score more than their usual 1 goal to be comfortable. Argument to lay the first team to score but cover the 1-0 or 0-1?

20:00 - Real Betis v Celta Vigo - 2.15 Real Betis

Real Betis - 10th

  • Only 2 losses in 7 matches came away.
  • Draw, Win, Draw at home recently.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • All wins bar 1 have come v 14th and lower.
  • 8/11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Celta Vigo - 8th

  • 5 wins and a draw ended with 2 consecutive defeats.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away, only once fulltime.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v the top 6.
  • v 11th and lower, 5 draws, a win and a loss.

Conclusions

  • Celta Vigo this season have tended to lose only to the top 6. If we can rely on that, then this is the angle.
  • Betis tend to concede 2nd half so remember that.

20:30 - Villarreal v Granada - 1.50 Villareal

Villareal - 4th

  • Only 2 losses came away v Barcelona and Sevilla.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • Not played 3rd - 10th at home.
  • 6 goals scored at home 61st-75th minute.

Granada - 7th

  • 2 losses and a win last 3 matches.
  • 4 defeats in 5 matches away.
  • No draw in 7 and in 6 away.
  • All defeats away v the top 8.
  • 12/16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • There is a big gap in form for Villareal v 3rd-10th at home. But Granada have all defeats v the top 8 so we can infer that today. They concede mostly 2nd half and if winning away, win 0-1 so lay them if they score first but cover that 0-1 just in case.
  • I like Villareal this season and will keep faith in them throughout.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

17:30 - Schalke v Koln - 2.50 Schalke

  • Dodgepots v newly promoted. I'll follow the market and not pick a side here. In-play stats or not at all.

19:30 - Arminia Bielefeld v Stuttgart - 1.83 Stuttgart

  • Remember Crotone v Benevento? 2 newly promoted sides and a scoreline that was very unexpected.
  • Similar here in Germany.
  • 15th v 10th.
  • I will leave this to the in-play stats. Both sides will fancy their chances.

19:30 - Augsburg v Bayern Munich - 1.20 Bayern Munich

Augsburg - 11th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Not won in 5 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 7 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Lost v 2nd and 3rd this season.
  • 11/15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Bayern Munich - 1st

  • Only 2 defeats. Lost away to Mgladbach recently, scoring 2 goals.
  • Scored and conceded last 11 matches and last 8 away matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 7 goals scored away 31st-45th minute.

Conclusions

  • Bayern are scoring and conceding and are unlikely to have 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Expect at least 2 goals from Bayern Munich.
  • Augsburg concede more 2nd half.

19:30 - Freiburg v Frankfurt - 2.45 Frankfurt

  • 9th v 8th and a market that cannot split these 2, and for good reason. Freiburg's 5 consecutive wins ended with loss v Bayern Munich. Frank are on a run of 4 consecutive wins and only 2 defeats v Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg.
  • All of Freiburg's defeats have come v top 4 teams. Frankfurt's 2 defeats came away v 1st and 7th.
  • Angles? 2 sides brimming with confidence and not a weak link to be found. Hence the 2.45 the favourite! In-play stats or not at all.

19:30 - Leipzig v Union Berlin - 1.50 Leipzig

Leipzig - 2nd

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Loss, Draw last 2 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss came last match v Dortmund.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side but most of the matches came away.
  • 5/6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Union Berlin - 5th

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored first in 6/7 away.
  • Not played the top 7 away.
  • 8/9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are in excellent form. An element of the unknown with Union Berlin as they are yet to play the top 7 away so how on earth can we gauge how they'll play v 2nd?
  • Leipzig have not beaten a top 8 side yet but most of those matches came away.
  • Muddling form for me. Good form both sides. A market lurching markedly in Leipzig's favour.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Udinese v Atalanta - 1.8 Atalanta

  • From emphatic and readable v Cagliari to WTF? in their last match v Genoa, Atalanta's 0-0 was a huge shock.

Udinese - 15th

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • No win in 7 matches.
  • 6/8 goals scored at home by opponents.
  • All defeats at home when they met the top 13.

Atalanta - 6th

  • 5 wins and 3 draws last 8 matches.
  • Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win away recently.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches but did last match in their 2nd 0-0.
  • No defeat in 8 and in 5 away.
  • Only away loss came v 3rd.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Atalanta are starting to put in some strange performances. Emphatic one match, 0-0 the next against similar opponents. They remain unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower and are undefeated in 8. Faith in that at least?