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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, December 20, 2017

SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA

18:30 - Getafe v Las Palmas - 1.79 Getafe

Getafe (9th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Losses at home v top 5 only.
  • Only played one of bottom 10.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Las Palmas (20th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away.
  • Not beaten top 10 away.
  • 13 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A gaping gap in Getafe's home form v bottom 10 so we really only have Las Palmas to rely on and they concede 2 goals + consistently away, have not beaten top 10 away and have kept only 2 clean sheets all season.
  • We must be with Getafe therefore.
  • Watch for 2nd half goals if none first half.

20:30 - Sociedad v Sevilla - 2.22 Sociedad

  • 1-1 last head to head.

Socieadad (10th)

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • 0-0 last match a big surprise on form (same as Sevilla 0-0 last match).
  • Failed to score in 2 goals now.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 7 at home.
  • No home 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2 of 3 home defeats came v top 4.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 v top 12.

Sevilla (5th)

  • 2 draws came 1st and last match.
  • 0-0 last match big surprise.
  • 5 losses and a 2-3 win in the last 6 away.
  • Like Sociedad, failed to score last 2 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Lost 4/5 away v top 4. Wins away v 6th, 7th, 9th.
  • Scored all away goals 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • These 2, with a reputation for goals, have suddenly stopped scoring.
  • So I am not totally confident today. On form, Sevilla should eye a positive result as they have only lost away to top 4.
  • The 0-0's last match for both sides put me off - I would have said both teams to score would be strong simply because they concede so often.
  • Do note Sevilla's 2nd half scoring.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:50 - Toulouse v Lyon - 1.85 Lyon

  • Lyon have won the last 5 head to heads.

Toulouse (17th)

  • Only 5 wins, 3 were 1-0.
  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home with 4 0-0's.
  • Not met top 5 at home but all defeats v top 6 this season.

Lyon (3rd)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 5 consecutive away wins.
  • Only away loss v PSG.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Toulouse are off the boil. Lyon love travelling and if this continues, they will score 2+ goals again and that should be enough to add to the 5 consecutive away wins.

19:50 - Bordeaux v Montpellier - 2.02 Bordeaux

  • 4-0 Montpellier and 5-1 Bordeaux in the last 2 head to heads.

Bordeaux (15th)

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • 8 defeats in 11 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 7 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No win v top 10.beat 12th and lower at home.

Montpellier (11th)

  • Unbeaten in 6 away.
  • 5 draws in 7 matches.
  • 0-1 wins away v 14th and 16th; 1-0 loss v 17th away and 1-1 v 19th.

Conclusions

  • Bordeaux are poor at the moment but have all wins at home v 12th and lower.
  • Montpellier are unbeaten though in 6 away matches. They have failed to score 2 goals away.
  • It is very tough to call. Poor form Bordeaux, good 100% wins v 12th and lower and plays 11th today who cannot score that 2nd goal.
  • Dare we lay Montpellier if Montpellier scores first?

19:50 - Paris St-G v Caen - 1.09 PSG

  • 100% win record PSG at home.
  • Caen have lost 3 away matches v top 5 without scoring.
  • 2+ goals scored by PSG this season in each home match.
  • As straightforward as the odds suggest.
  • PSG have conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches so let's hope Caen scores first.
  • PSG have led at halftime in 7 home matches.

19:50 - Angers v Dijon - 2.08 Angers

  • 3-1 Angers and 3-2 Dijon in the last 2 head to heads.

Angers (19th)

  • Only 2 wins came away from home.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets came in the wins.
  • No win in 8 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 8 at home.

Dijon (8th)

  • 6 wins in their last 9 matches. BUT 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 9 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only away win v 20th.

Conclusions

  • Poor home form for Angers. Poor away form for Dijon.
  • Both teams have conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Other than that these 2 are in poor form. I note Dijon win convincingly v 14th and lower.....at home.

19:50 - Marseille v ESTAC Troyes - 1.24 Troyes

  • 1-1 the last head to head May 2016.

Marseille (4th)

  • Good season to date and in with a shout for 2nd place.
  • Only 3 defeats. Lost last match away at Lyon.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 12 matches.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 1-0 leads at halftime.
  • 5 wins and a 1-1 at home v 8th and lower.
  • 12 of 18 goals scored at home  came 2nd half.

Troyes (14th)

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • All defeats bar 1 v top 15 away.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • This match should not end up 0-0.
  • Troyes really should not win today. They have all defeats bar 1 v top 15 away. Marseille are in good nick, tend to score first and worst case is a draw for them today on form.
  • Troyes should be opposed if leading.

19:50 - Lille v Nice - 2.72 Lille

  • The French Ligue 1 is tough enough without needing a 2.72 the favourite match!
  • 1-1, 1-1, 1-2 Nice in the last 3 head to heads.

Lille

  • No draw in 10 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 12 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • No draw v top 13, all defeats bar 2 wins.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Nice (6th)

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 was v Lyon.
  • 2 consecutive 1-2 wins away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Beat 17th 1-2 but lost away v 11th, 13th and 16th.

Conclusions

  • 2 losses, 2 wins, 2 losses, 2 wins, 2 losses for Lille. 2 wins now?
  • 2 consecutive home wins Lille, 4 consecutive wins Nice so very recent form good for these 2.
  • I would lay the late 0-0.I would lay the late score draw.

19:50 - Monaco v Rennes - 1.4 Monaco

  • Monaco tend to remain unbeaten in recent head to heads.

Monaco (2nd)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 13 goals scored in each half at home.

Rennes (7th)

  • Only 2 losses in 9.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded all 4 matches v top 5.

Conclusions

  • Rennes are clearly in good nick. Losses recently v free scorers Strasbourg and PSG should signal struggles against a Monaco putting together wins and scoring in their last 9 matches.
  • Rennes may score today but without winning. They did beat Marseille away 1-3 so have it in them to perform but generally Monaco's 3 consecutive wins sees momentum. They have only lost to PSG at home.
  • Lay any late 0-0.No 0-0 at halftime at home Monaco.

19:50 - Amiens v Nantes - 2.74 Amiens

  • Another French Ligue 1 match with a market wo cannot split these 2.

Amiens (13th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats after 3 consecutive wins.
  • 3 wins and a draw at home ended with a 1-2 v Lyon where Lyon scored first.
  • No 0-0.
  • 2 of 3 losses at home v 3rd and 4th.
  • Only 5 over 2.5 goals matches.

Nantes (5th)

  • 3 defeats and a draw last 4 away.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 9th and lower. 0-1 away v 11th and 14th.

Conclusions

  • No wonder the market is inconclusive. Amiens lost to 3rd and 4th, beat 6th at home but meet 5th. So what will the result be?
  • Nantes tend not to lose to 9th and lower  but have not scored that 2nd goal away v 11th and lower.
  • It suggests laying Nantes if Nantes score first.

19:50 - Guingamp v St Etienne - 2.02 Guingamp

  • 1-0 and 0-2 St Etienne wins in the last 2 head to heads.

Guingamp (12th)

  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 1st in the league.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All defeats bar 1 have come v the top 6.
  • 4 draws and a 1-0 at home v 11th and lower.
  • Not scored 2 goals in those matches above.

St Etienne (16th)

  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 away.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • Away wins 0-1 v 8th and 10th.

Conclusions

  • I like Guingamp's form as compared with St Etienne's only 2 wins in 15 matches.
  • We may see a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Guingamp have only been scoring the one goal a game v teams 11th and lower at home. 1-1 has been a frequent result.

19:50 - Metz v Strasbourg - 2.56 Strasbourg

Metz (20th)

  • Only 2 wins, one came last match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 10 of 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 at home and scored 1 goal max at home.
  • 1-1 v 7th, 1-2 v 8th.
  • Not scored a goal 2nd half at home.

Strasbourg (9th)

  • 4 wins and 2 draws.
  • Only 1 loss in 11 matches.
  • 2-0-2-3 goals scored away recently.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Not played bottom 4 away.
  • But 0-3 and 2-2 v 15th and 16th away.
  • 14 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Superb season top 10 for newly promoted Strasbourg.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Both teams concede heavily 2nd half so if it happens to be 0-0 at halftime, take it on.
  • I would favour Strasbourg here. Metz tend not to score 2 goals so look layable if scoring first.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Celtic v Partick Thistle - 1.12 Celtic

  • Excuse my french, but what the FECK went wrong with Celtic away at Hearts? They lost convincingly and ended their unbeaten run.
  • 0-1 only for Celtic last head to head.

Celtic (1st)

  • Only loss and failed to score last match.
  • Not sure what to make of that. Celtic were unbeaten.
  • Partick are bottom and Celtic have beaten all teams 9th and lower.

Partick (12th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • No away wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not met top 2 away but lost to them at home 0-1 and 3-4.
  • Lost 3-0 away v 3rd and 4th.

Conclusions

  • Celtic should be eyeing an easy win, even 3 goals. Partick were tight at home v the top 2 albeit in defeat but Partick lost 3-0 v 3rd and 4th away.
  • Let's put that Hearts emphatic loss down to an inform Hearts striker Kyle Lafferty.