Happy New Year. Just the Premier League and Championship today. I have not really looked indepth into the 'new manager' teams' matches. The English Championship looks really tough for me today. As you know I rarely research it because it is so competitive. But I had to research today.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
12:30 - Burnley v Aston Villa - 1.89 Burnley
- 1st goal: Burnley have scored first in 9/13 home matches against bottom-six teams while Aston Villa have lost 8/10 away matches. Aston Villa have conceded first in 6/10 away matches.
Burnley - 13th
- 3 losses, 2 wins, 3 losses 2 wins, 2 losses. Inconsistent of late.
- 3 losses in 4 at home.
- No draw in 13 and in 10 at home.
- All defeats at home v the top 9.
- All clean sheet wins at home v 10th and lower.
- 2-2 the last time these 2 met.
- 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Aston Villa - 18th
- 5 losses in 6 matches.
- 5 losses in 6 matches away.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Conceded last 10 away.
- All losses and a single draw away v 12th and higher.
- 18 of 22 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Aston Villa are poor travellers and are unlikely to win but this Burnley are one of those inconsistent sides. 3 losses in 4 at home BUT key for me...100% wins to nil v 10th and lower at home.
- Do note the strong 2nd half conceding by Aston Villa.
12:30 - Brighton v Chelsea - 2.02 Chelsea
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 14/20 Brighton home matches and they have drawn the first half in 7/10 home matches. Chelsea have won 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams.
- Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
- 3-3-2-0-2-0-2 goals scored at home recently.
- 50% 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 100% defeats v the top 5, the majority away.
- 2-0 loss to Chelsea already this season.
- 7 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- 2 consecutive away wins.
- 5 losses in 8 though, a poor end of November/December.
- No draw in 16 and in 10 away.
- Scored in their last 9 away.
- No 0-0 at halftime away.
- All wins away v 12th and lower conceding in each of those.
- Certainly wobbles for Chelsea under Fat Frank at the moment. 5 losses in 8 matches. If we look at the context of these losses, then we note that they tend to occur v the better positioned sides. Chelsea have won all away matches v 12th and lower this season, conceding in each of those wins.
- The bright spark for Brighton is whether they can score 2+ goals at home as they have done in 5 of their last 7 matches. Chelsea won the previous head to head and may prevail in a battle today. Interesting that the market has not even inserted them as odds-on favourites. I would lay any 0-2 lead by Chelsea.
15:00 - Watford v Wolves - 2.36 Wolves
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/12 Watford home matches. Wolves have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
Watford - 19th
- New manager for Watford so no point in looking at the seasonal form as a whole.
- Loss, Win, Draw, Win for Watford under Nigel Pearson. Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the 4 matches. 2-0 and 3-0 home wins under Pearson v Man Utd and Aston Villa.
Wolves - 7th
- Only 4 losses. 2 losses last 4 matches v Tottenham and Liverpool. The latter loss saw a reaction from FIFA as regards VAR. It was too 'forensic' in disallowing the Wolves equaliser which was a finely worked goal.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Conceded last 5 and last 6 away.
- 100% wins home and away v 16th and lower. Scored and conceded all aways v 9th and lower.
- 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
- New manager syndrome prevents me from being confident about this match. Watching brief I'm afraid. Clearly Nigel Pearson is impacting Watford positively. I love this Wolves side dependability though (note that they tend to score and concede away without necessarily losing).
15:00 - Southampton v Tottenham - 2.18 Tottenham
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Southampton home matches against top-six teams and in 9/10 Spurs away matches. Spurs have scored first in 11/17 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches.
- Saints fans must be happy with the form this Xmas. I have seen Le God in Guernsey twice this Xmas and I am sure he is contented. 4 wins, 2 losses and a draw since 30th November.
- 2 wins, a loss and a draw at home recently.
- 1-1-1-1 conceded in those matches.
- Conceded in their last 10 at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Only 2 home wins v bottom 2.
- Not scored that 2nd goal at home v the top 17.
- 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- We must maintain a look only at form under the Special(ish) One.
- WWLWWLWD under Mourinho (W=Win, L-Loss, D-Draw). 3 consecutive losses at halftime, coming back to remain unbeaten in 2 of those. That is an angle we used v Norwich latest, 1-0 and 2-1 down.
- No 0-0 at halftime under Mourinho.
- Win, Loss, Win, Draw away, both teams scoring, and Spuds scoring 3-1-2-2 goals.
- I could see both teams scoring here what with Ralph McTell getting this Saints side winning of late. They conceded last 10 and with Mourinho getting a tune out of the forward line, I would expect 2 goals from Spuds.
- Remember Spuds have lost at halftime last 3 matches. Note the comeback in 2 of those matches. A ready angle. Southampton, for all of their recent wins, have still failed to score that 2nd goal at home v the top 17. That may cost them unless they can rediscover the form which saw 2 goals v Chelsea.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market so says the form but we are under threat of possible changes in squad.
15:00 - Newcastle v Leicester - 1.63 Leicester
- 1st goal: Newcastle have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams while Leicester have scored first in 7/10 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 11/16 Leicester away matches.
Newcastle - 11th
- 3 losses in 4 matches.
- 2 wins in 3 at home.
- Scored in their last 7 at home.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
- Lost away to the top 2 this season. Unbeaten in 4 v the other top 9 at home.
- 7 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Leicester City - 2nd
- Ended a 2 match losing run with a win v West Ham which was all the more impressive given the wholesale changes to the team (the actual Ted Rodgers and Dusty Bin were picked up front in order to rest Vardy). The Brendan Rodgers gamble paid off. We must check team news today for Leicester.
- 2 recent losses came v Man City and Liverpool.
- 5 wins in 6 matches away.
- Scored in their last 7 away.
- 100% wins away v 8th and lower.
- 7/10 goals conceded away came 1st half.
- Leicester look well placed to win. Superb record v 8th and lower both home and away. Please watch for team news. Rodgers risked wholesale changes v West Ham but came out with a win.
- Newcastle have a a high % of 0-0 at halftime but not fulltime. Newcastle have a goal in them. Not sure if they can overcome Leicester - a full-time Leicester.
17:30 - Norwich v Crystal Palace - 2.54 Norwich
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Norwich home matches and +3.5 goals in 7/10 Norwich home matches. C Palace have won 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
Norwich - 20th
- Only 3 wins.
- 4 losses and 3 draws last 7 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- No win in 7 at home.
- Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 9 at home.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 2 home wins v 3rd and 11th are not the norm.
- 2-0 loss v Palace earlier this season.
- 10 of 16 goals scored at home came 1st half.
Crystal Palace - 6th
- Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
- 0-2-0-0-1 goals scored in recent away matches.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away (60%).
- Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
- On seasonal form, Palace have a solid unbeaten record home and away v 12th and lower. Norwich are conceding 2+ goals in their last 9 at home. So why are Palace 2.54 odds i.e the market is giving Norwich a chance here?
- That's the conundrum.
- Note the high % of 0-0 at halftime away for Palace. I would lay any 2nd half 0-0.
17:30 - West Ham v Bournemouth - 2 West Ham
- Match outcome: West Ham have won 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Bournemouth have lost 13/20 away matches. Bournemouth have conceded first in 13/20 away matches.
- New manager syndrome for West Ham. David Moyes, Football Genius, takes over so there is no point in looking at the season-long form.
- Bournemouth have only 1 win 9 matches and 2 wins in 14 matches. Those wins were only 1-0.
- They failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Another watching brief. I do have to insist on these with new manager matches. It does not mean you don't trade the match. Rather make sure you are reactive to the in-play stats.
17:30 - Man City v Everton - 1.29 Man City
- Match outcome: Man City have won 10/10 home matches against middle-third teams while Everton have lost 11/17 away matches against top-six teams. Man City have won by two or more goals in 14/16 home matches against middle-third teams.
- New manager syndrome precludes me from being ultra confident.
- What I must remind you is that Sergio Aguero is back for Man City and oh, how he has been missed.
- 0-0, 0-0, 1-0 win v Newcastle under Ancelloti. He's tightened that defence up but the football is unexciting, albeit avoiding the defeats.
- I would have to caution a watching brief here today but as I say Aguero is a huge boost and will be key in a very tight match.
20:00 - Arsenal v Man Utd - 2.62 Man Utd
- 1st half outcome: Man Utd have won the first half in 10/18 away matches and they have scored first in 13/20 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Arsenal home matches.
- Arteta has yet to show any signs of reviving this Arsenal side.
- I will not be researching this match. I have no way to read how Arteta will approach what has been an improving Man Utd side. Only 1 loss in 9 for United was, admittedly, a shock away loss v Watford.
- Only 3 clean sheets for Man Utd. All United away defeats saw them fail to score. Can this Arsenal side really keep a clean sheet? Not so sure.
- I would always caution being a reactive trader to these 'new manager syndrome' matches.
12:45 - Millwall v Luton - 1.67 Millwall
- 1st goal: Millwall have scored first in 9/13 home matches while Luton have lost the first half in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Luton away matches against middle-third teams.
Millwall - 11th
- Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
- 2-2-2 goals conceded at home recently ended with a clean sheet win latest.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- Scored last 18 and last 12 at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Only 2 home losses were 1-2 v 15th and 22th.
- 1-1 v Luton the last time these 2 met.
- 11 of 18 goals scored at home came 1st half.
- 9 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Luton - 23rd
- Only 2 wins in 13 matches came at home.
- 8 consecutive away defeats.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Conceded last 13 and last 13 away.
- Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 8 away matches.
- 2 0-0's at halftime away (15%).
- Luton just look terrible away from home that Millwall should take advantage. They are scoring regularly and Luton have kept only one clean sheet.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Possibility of 2 goals from the Lions today. Luton have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 8 away matches.
15:00 - Birmingham v Wigan - 2.1 Birmingham
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/18 Birmingham home matches and they have drawn the first half in 9/15 home matches. Wigan have lost 8/10 away matches against bottom-half teams.
Birmingham - 18th
- Only 1 win since 2nd November 2019.
- Conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 6 matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Conceded in their last 12 and last 6 at home.
- Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 at home.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home but no 0-0 fulltime.
- 3/3 wins at home v 21st and lower, scoring 2 goals at least.
- 71% of goals scored and conceded at home came 2nd half.
Wigan - 24th
- No win since 23rd October 2019.
- 4 recent draws ended with a loss last match.
- No win in 13 away.
- Failed to score that 2nd goal away v 15th and lower.
- Both sides are at the wrong end of the table but Birmingham have shown a level of consistency in scoring 2 goals and beating sides 21st and lower and I may hang my hat on that.
- Both sides have a high % of 0-0 at halftime but a solid conversion rate to NO 0-0 fulltime.
15:00 - Bristol City v Brentford - 2.08 Brentford
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Bristol City home matches against top-six teams and in 7/10 Brentford away matches against top-half teams. Bristol City have drawn the first half in 7/12 home matches against top-six teams.
Bristol City - 8th
- 4 defeats in 5 matches makes for a poor Christmas period.
- 2 losses last 3 at home.
- 1-1 last time these 2 met. only played 2 of 2nd-10th at home, those were 0-0.
- Failed to score that 2nd goal at home v the top 14.
Brentford - 4th
- Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
- 0-1-1-0 scored in recent away matches.
- No win away v the top 7. Beat 9th away.
- 2 top 10 sides. Bristol City have struggled to score 2 goals v the top 14. Is that their Achilles Heel? A poor Christmas for Bristol City too BUT then Brentford have no win away v the top 7 but did beat 9th. No clear cut angle here for me.
15:00 - Fulham v Reading - 1.8 Fulham
- Match outcome: Fulham have won 8/13 home matches while Reading have conceded first in 10/16 away matches against top-six teams. Reading have drawn the first half in 7/11 away matches.
Fulham - 3rd
- 4 wins in 5 matches at home.
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- Unbeaten at home v 13th and lower scoring 2+ goals in all bar 1 at home.
Reading - 14th
- 2 draws and then 3 wins.
- 4 consecutive clean sheets.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away - 50% of matches.
- Not beaten the top 6 home or away.
- 1-1 draw away v 2nd, 1-0 loss away v 4th.
- 10 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- Fulham look good at home recently and v 13th and lower where they tend to score 2 goals at least. If this pattern continues and if Reading continue to struggle for 2 goals v the top 4, then the result seems obvious.
15:00 - Huddersfield v Stoke - 2.86 both sides
- 1st half outcome: Huddersfield have drawn the first half in 9/12 home matches while Stoke have drawn 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. Stoke have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- 20th v 21st and 2.86 the favourite already has me looking elsewhere for my New Years' Day fix.
- 3 wins in 5 plays 2 wins in 5.
- 2 consecutive home 2-1 wins for Huddersfield.
- 6 losses in 7 away for Stoke.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home for Huddersfield is 46%.
- Angles? Nothing strong for me in this match. Strugglers don't make reliable.
15:00 - Nottm Forest v Blackburn - 2.12 Nottm Forest
- Match outcome: Nottm Forest have won 12/20 home matches while Blackburn have lost 6/8 away matches against top-six teams. Nottm Forest have scored first in 14/20 home matches.
Nottm Forest - 5th
- 2 consecutive wins after a run of 5 without.
- Failed to score in 2 of their last 4 home matches.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home (45%).
- All 4 defeats at home have come v the top 12.
- 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
- 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
- 8 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Blackburn - 13th
- Only 1 loss in 9 came last match.
- No win in 3.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Scored in their last 6 away.
- All defeats away v the top 7, 2-3-2-3 goals conceded.
- 8 goals scored away in the first 15 minutes of matches.
- If Nottm Forest lose at home, it does come v the top 12. Well....they play 13th today. Forest are strong 2nd half scorers. Note that if 0-0 or 0-1 at halftime.
- Blackburn have conceded 2+ goals v the top 7 away. Will that allow Forest a chance today? Forest, I remind you, if they lose, lose v top 12 sides at home.
- I am not wholly with any one side here today. They both have weak form.
15:00 - Preston v Middlesbrough - 1.93 Preston
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Preston home matches against bottom-half teams and in 7/10 Middlesbrough away matches against top-half teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/9 Middlesbrough away matches against top-half teams.
Preston - 7th
- 4 losses, 2 wins,2 draws and a loss recently.
- 4 wins and 2 losses last 6 home matches.
- Conceded in their last 9 at home.
- 2 0-0's at halftime at home (15%).
- Only played 2 teams of 9th-19th at home. A noticeable gap in form. And there they conceded 2 goals v 13th and 14th at home (Win and loss).
- 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
- 14 goals scored at home in the first half hour of the second half.
Middlesbrough - 16th
- 3 consecutive wins. Recent 0-2 win away at West Brom also caught the eye.
- 2 0-0's at halftime away (17%).
- Only 1 away win was that win v 2nd placed West Brom.
- 8 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- In what is turning out to be a typically tough Championship coupon, we see a big gap in form for Preston at home v 9th-19th (important as they play 16th today). With that gap in form, and Boro winning their only away match of the season in their last match and against 2nd in the league, there is too much clouding this match.
- A possibility to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market on the % but remember that gap in form for Preston.
15:00 - QPR v Cardiff - 2.18 QPR
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 QPR home matches and in 7/10 Cardiff away matches. QPR have lost 6/8 home matches against top-half teams.
QPR - 15th
- 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
- 2-2-3-2-0-1 goals scored recently.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- 2 0-0's at halftime at home (15%).
- All home defeats came v the top 12. 3-0 loss to Cardiff earlier this season.
- 18 of 26 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Cardiff - 10th
- Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
- 3 draws and a win last 4 matches.
- Scored in their last 5 away matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- Only 2 away wins v 5th and 6th.
- Scored 2 goals in 4 away matches v 11th and lower without winning.
- 12 of 18 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- Another match I am not too keen on. When QPR lose at home, it comes v the top 12. Cardiff are 10th. And this, a Cardiff who have only 2 away wins, strangely v 5th and 6th. Cardiff have scored 2 goals v 11th and lower on 4 occasions without winning. That might be an angle? Lay Cardiff if they lead 0-2.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market says the stats.
15:00 - Sheff Wed v Hull - 1.98 Sheff Wed
- Match outcome: Sheffield Wed have won 12/17 home matches against middle-third teams while Hull City have lost 6/9 away matches against top-six teams. Sheffield Wed have scored first in 12/20 home matches.
Sheff Wed - 6th
- 2 consecutive defeats.
- That ended a run of 4 wins in 5.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Only loss in 8 at home came last match.
- Scored in their last 11 and last 5 at home.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home but only 1 at fulltime.
- Lost 1-0 to Hull earlier this season.
- 10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Hull City - 12th
- 2-3-2-2-1 goals conceded away recently. Put an end to that worrying 2 goal run last match.
- Conceded in their last 5 away.
- A little unreadable away. Lost to 1st, beat 3rd, drawn with 4th, beat 5th....lost to 9th, 20th and 22nd (Huddersfield and Barnsley - localish derby?).
- 13 of 18 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- 12 of 18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Only 1 loss away for Hull v the top 5 catches the eye. Their goals conceded away recently also catches the eye, for another reason. Sheff Wed have failed to score only 3 times so may get a goal today. 2 consecutive defeats is something they'd be keen to end.
- If 0-0 at halftime, lay it 2nd half.
- No strong opinion I'm afraid.
17:15 - West Brom v Leeds - 2.4 Leeds
- +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 7/10 WBA home matches and +2.5 goals in 8/10 WBA home matches. Leeds have conceded first in 12/19 away matches against top-six teams.
- The top 2 in the Championship suggests to me a watching brief.
- West Brom have conceded in each of their last 12 at home. Leeds have scored in their last 11 matches.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away for Leeds and only 1 0-0 at fulltime. Lay any 0-0 2nd half.
- Angles? I cannot split these 2. Watching brief. Lay any 2nd half 0-0.