Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A busy evening and a reasonable shout for a live chat. We are getting to that tricky part of the season where relegation threatened sides must do what is necessary in order to accumulate points. Faith in the form?
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7709159098095642114
is the link for the webinar this evening. 19:45. There are enough matches kicking off at the same time for me to warrant a live chat. I will try and tweet advices during the live chat.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Bournemouth v Man Utd - 1.77 Man Utd

  • 1-1 and 1-0 Man Utd last 2 head to heads.

Bournemouth (11th)

  • 10 point cushion to the relegation zone is not enough mathematically. A win today should nail it with 16 available points remaining.
  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 13 of the last 15 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 8 at home.
  • 9 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (41%).
  • Lost home and away to all top 4.
  • 18 of 25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 18 of 28 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Manchester United (2nd)

  • 5 consecutive wins ended with a coupon busting 0-1 loss at home to West Brom.
  • 16 points the gap with 15 points available. City are ChampionsTottenham and Liverpool can still catch United in 2nd place.
  • Recent losses to Tottenham and Newcastle away were followed by 2-3 wins v Palace and Manchester City.
  • Far more vulnerable away. Losses v 4th, 5th, 10th and 15th.
  • 2-2-0-4-1-3-4-1-2-2 goals scored away v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • A strong 2nd half bias from Bournemouth. So if 0-0 at halftime, I would back over 2.5 goals 2nd half.
  • Bournemouth tend to score and concede so lay them in they score first.

FRENCH CUP

20:05 - Caen v PSG - 1.19 PSG

  • The French Cup is best dealt with in-play. Our natural inclination is towards PSG. My research focus would rather be on League matches rather than cup matches.

GERMAN CUP

19:45 - Schalke v Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.87 Schalke

  • This is the German Cup and, as above, my preference is a focus on league football today. In-play stats will reveal if the market is accurate here.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Benevento v Atalanta - 1.63 Atalanta

  • 1-0 Atalanta the last time these 2 met.

Benevento (20th)

  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently. They are relegated but giving fans at home a great time.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (38%).
  • Did beat 9th at home but yet to beat any top 8 side home or away.
  • 15 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Atalanta (8th)

  • A loss and 2 draws last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 10 away matches was v Juventus.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Atalanta should not lose today but could concede such is the show Benevento are putting on at home. Even if Benevento lead 2-0 I would still be laying them.
  • Atalanta do have a worrying number of 1-1's v bottom sides away which is why I stated they 'should not lose' today.

19:45 - Crotone v Juventus - 1.36 Juventus

  • 2 consecutive Juventus 3-0 wins in head to heads.

Crotone (18th)

  • 6 losses in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 11 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All losses home and away v top 4 without scoring.
  • All losses at home v top 6 without scoring.

Juventus (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats all season.
  • Unbeaten in 19 matches and in 10 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away (38%).
  • 18 wins and a 0-0 in matches home and away v 10th and lower.
  • 18 goals scored last 1/2 hour of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Juventus should be eyeing a win to nil here given Crotone's form v top 6 at home and top 4 home and away.
  • I did lay the 0-0 halftime score last Juve match (44th minute). Their % this time away is slightly higher so I may not today.

19:45 - Fiorentina v Lazio - 2.72 Lazio

  • Beware the odds. 2.72 the favourite suggests this is tough to call.
  • 3-2 Fiorentina and 1-1 Lazio last 2 head to heads.

Fiorentina (7th)

  • 6 clean sheets in 7 matches. Could not break down SPAL 0-0 it ended despite Fiorentina utterly dominating.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (38%).
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home.

Lazio (3rd)

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came v Juventus.
  • 3-2-2 scored last 3 aways.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (19%).
  • Beat Juventus away from home but that was the only away win v top 8 teams.
  • Scored and conceded away in 10/11 matches v the top 14.
  • 22 of 37 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Fiorentina are keeping clean sheets but are yet to beat a top 9 side. Lazio are scoring - 3-2-2 last 3 away but have only 1 win v top 8 away.
  • Fiorentina wins recently I note have been to nil. They may not be capable of that today. Lazio have scored and conceded in 10/11 v top 14 so on that basis I would lay Fiorentina if they lead.
  • Fiorentina may find it hard to keep a clean sheet today. Slight risk given their 6 clean sheets in 7 but I note Lazio's scoring.

19:45 - Napoli v Udinese - 1.19 Napoli

  • Napoli tend to win head to heads, albeit the last 2 were 1-0 wins.

Napoli (2nd)

  • An eminently winnable game for Juventus tonight needs a response in kind from Napoli.
  • 7 wins in their last 8 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (31%).
  • Only 2 defeats this season came at home v top 4.
  • 3 goals scored pervades the home wins v 8th and lower.

Udinese (13th)

  • 9 consecutive losses now conceding 2 goals. I did point this out in the weekend research just gone. A good way to lay that 1-1!
  • That's 5 away defeats too conceding 2 goals.
  • 100% defeats home and away v top 4.

Conclusions

  • Udinese cannot shut shop and conceded 2 goals yet again at the weekend. They could be conceding 3 goals today (hooray they're thinking - at least we won't concede just 2!) if Napoli click at home as they do v teams 8th and lower.
  • Plenty to motivate a Napoli win. 6 points between Udinese and relegation. They are living off past efforts but continuous defeats will see big problems.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in the expectation for goals and in light of Udinese's 12% 0-0 at halftime away stat.

19:45 - Roma v Genoa - 1.48 Roma

  • 3-2 Roma and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Roma (4th)

  • No win in 3.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss recently at home. The Champions League may have affected concentration there.
  • 3rd place is realistic this season.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (31% of matches).
  • All home defeats came v top 9 teams.
  • Scored first in 10/16 at home.

Genoa (12th)

  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches since 29th October 2017.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 away.
  • Loss, Loss, draw last 3 away.
  • 12 0-0's at halftime last 16 matches and only 3 0-0's fulltime.
  • 11 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Failed to score in all bar 1 match away v the top 13.

Conclusions

  • If you don't score, you won't win! That's the case with under 2.5 goals experts Genoa away v the top 13.
  • Roma have been poor at home of late but they only tend to lose to top 9 teams.
  • A 0-0 at halftime would not surprise but I would take it on 2nd half. You might want to back 0-0 pre match and cash out at halftime if Genoa consent to defend as they tend to!

19:45 - Spal v Chievo - 2.18 SPAL

  • 2-1 Chievo in the last head to head.

SPAL (17th)

  • 2 bottom 5 sides today = RELEGATION SIX POINTER!
  • Unbeaten in 7 matches but 5 consecutive draws is not maximising this unbeaten run.
  • 0-1-0-1-1-0 goals conceded recently and kept the likes of Juventus and Fiorentina to 0-0.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Losses at home v 14th and 15th, draws at home v 18th and 19th.

Chievo (16th)

  • Only 2 wins in 18 matches came at home.
  • 9 consecutive away defeats.
  • No win in 12 away.
  • Conceded in their last 11 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (44% of matches).
  • Lost 1-0 away to bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • Relegation six pointer as I say, can introduce an element of the unknown.
  • Strictly on form and recent form, SPAL look as if they keep it tight and are unlikely to concede 2 goals, so therefore lay Crotone if Crotone score first.
  • We could see 0-0 play out for a while based on SPAL recently. Back 0-0 if you want pre match and hope it remains 0-0 long enough to cash out for profit.

19:45 - Sampdoria v Bologna - 1.95 Sampdoria

  • 3-1 Sampdoria and 3-0 Bologna last 2 head to heads.

Sampdoria (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 came away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (43%).
  • v 5th and lower at home, only 1 loss.
  • 20 of 31 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Bologna (11th)

  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 away.
  • Conceded in their last 11 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away (40%).
  • No 0-0.
  • All wins bar 1 came v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Sampdoria should not lose. Solid v 5th and lower at home. bologna only 1 win v teams above them in the league.
  • Stick with this form reading and react as necessary if Bologna score first?

19:45 - Torino v AC Milan - 2.36 AC Milan

  • 2-2 and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.

Torino (10th)

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No draw in 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (19%).
  • All defeats bar 1 came v top 7 teams.
  • 12 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.

AC Milan (6th)

  • Only 1 loss in 14 matches was v Juventus.
  • Scored in their last 7 away matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away (25%).
  • All defeats bar 1 have come v top 9.
  • 16 of 23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Torino should not be winning today. All defeats bar 1 v top 7.
  • AC Milan have only been beaten by Juventus recently and that is strong form. Yes, all defeats bar 1 came v top 9 but where does 10th placed Torino fit there?
  • I will take a chance and favour AC Milan which means opposing any Torino lead.

19:45 - Verona v Sassuolo - 1.96 Sassuolo

  • 1-0 Sassuolo and 0-2 Verona last 2 head to heads.
  • Verona need points - 2nd bottom. Sassuolo are 4 points above the relegation zone.

Verona (19th)

  • 4 losses in their last 5 matches without scoring.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home though. There is hope. 2 of the recent wins at home were 1-0.
  • No draw in 16 and in 13 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (19%).
  • 1-0 wins at home v 14th, 16th and 20th.

Sassuolo (15th)

  • 5 draws in 6 matches, unbeaten.
  • All those draws were score draws.
  • A win and 2 score draws last 3 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away (38%).
  • v 13th and lower away, 4 wins and a draw.

Conclusions

  • 1-0 seems to be the calling card for Verona v 14th and lower. Sassuolo though are score drawing, so yes, if Verona score, they could nick a 1-0 but it seems to me that Sassuolo score.
  • Lay Verona if Verona score first?

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - AZ v Vitesse - 1.63 AZ

  • 2-1 Vitesse and 1-2 AZ last 2 head to heads.

AZ (3rd)

  • 3 matches remain for AZ and they are 5 points shy of 2nd spot.
  • Only 3 defeats since 15th October 2017.
  • In 7 of their last 8 matches, AZ have scored at least 2 goals.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (47%).
  • All defeats bar 1 this season came v the top 4.
  • 93% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • 23 of 30 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Vitesse (6th)

  • Only 2 wins in 8, although one was v Ajax.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • Beat Ajax away but lost to 1st, 4th and 5th.

Conclusions

  • Quite a high 0-0 percentage before halftime for AZ so take on any 0-0 2nd half. 93% over 1.5 goals tells us 2+ goals is the norm with their home matches.
  • On form, AZ could score 2 goals today and that should be enough against a Vitesse tending to lose to the top 5 (despite beating Ajax (2nd) home and away this season).

 

17:30 - Roda v PSV - 1.31 PSV

  • 2 consecutive PSV wins to nil in head to heads.

Roda (16th)

  • 3 wins in a row ended with a loss last match.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 12 at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals at home in their last 5 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (33%).
  • 3/3 losses home and away v top 2.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of 8 matches v top 10 at home.

PSV (1st)

  • 10 points gap to 2nd place. 3 matches remain. I don't need the phone the lovely Rachel Riley from Countdown to tell you PSV are the Champions.
  • 13 wins, a draw and a loss last 15 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 9 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 100% wins home and away v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • PSV have won the title. Foot off the gas today? Not sure how to read them. Strictly on form, this is a 2/3 goal win from PSV but ' am I bovvered?'

18:45 - Excelsior v Heracles - 1.86 Excelsior

  • 2-2 last head to head.

Excelsior (10th)

  • Scored and conceded 5 of last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 13 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (27%).
  • Not beaten a top 12 side at home - 5 of the defeats were 1-2.

Heracles (11th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away ( 27%).
  • Only 1 away win v 16th.
  • 14 goals conceded away in last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Excelsior home wins come v 13th and lower. Heracles are dire away. Only 1 win.
  • Not the best of form for Excelsior but default to them based only on Heracles' poor away form? Lay Heracles if Heracles score first.

19:45 - Sparta Rotterdam v NAC Breda - 1.89 Sparta

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met.

Sparta Rotterdam (17th)

  • 3 matches remain but they must all be wins for Sparta.
  • 2 wins at home was halted by Ajax. Sparta still scored 2 goals there so there is a touch of ultra recent form.
  • Only 4 clean sheets all season so really need to score 2 goals to win.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Wins at home v 12th, 13th, 14th and 18th augur well for today.

NAC Breda (15th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 1-1 and 1-0 away v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are not safe from relegation.
  • Strictly on form, Sparta are in ultra recent winning form, and have a solid wins record v 12th and lower. That would lead me towards the home side getting a positive result.
  • I would lay NAC if NAC scored first.

19:45 - Willem II v Feyenoord - 1.71 Feyenoord

  • 5-0 and 3-0 Feyenoord last 2 head to heads.

Willem II (14th)

  • 7 points clear of the bottom 3 with 9 possible points remaining.
  • 3 wins in 5 matches.
  • 20 of the last 21 matches have seen at least a goal before halftime.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v top 10 at home bar 2 wins v 1st and 5th.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in all bar 1 match at home v top 10.

Feyenoord (4th)

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of those 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • A lot more temperamental away losing to 1st, 2nd, 6th, 12th and 15th.
  • 4-2-1-4-0-2 goals scored away v 7th-13th.
  • 17 goals scored away in the first half hour of matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Willem II recent run and Feyenoord's recent scoring run.
  • Clearly Feyenoord are more temperamental away but are on a hot run of recent form. Is that enough to convince you to stick with them not to lose today? A feeling though that their race is run as far as place advancement in the league is concerned.

SPANISH LA LIGA

18:30 - Espanyol v Eibar - 2.4 Espanyol

  • 1-1 and 3-1 Eibar in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Espanyol have a 9 point cushion to the bottom 3. That should be enough.
  • Eibar? 40 points should be enough shouldn't it?

Espanyol (16th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in those 4 matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Win, Draw at home - points at the right part of the season.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss v 10th and lower at home BUT only scoring 1-2-1-0-0-0-4 goals.

Eibar (12th)

  • 4 losses and 2 draws last 6 matches.
  • 3 losses last 4 away.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away (40%).
  • Draw, Win, Win, Loss, Draw, Win, Win away v 13th and lower.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A win today should allow either side to put one foot in the safety zone.
  • Espanyol are going on an unbeaten run at home just at the right time but then Eibar have an excellent record away v 13th and lower.
  • That, folks, is the reason for a 2.4 favourite. The market cannot split the sides. I, too, can make an argument for either side.
  • A high % of 0-0's at halftime.

18:30 - Valencia v Getafe - 1.52 Valencia

  • 1-0 Getafe in the last head to head.

Valencia (4th)

  • A realistic top 2 berth available with 18 possible points to work with.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • 8 wins and a draw ended with a loss to Barcelona.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime in the last 16 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • 100% wins at home v 7th and lower.
  • Led at halftime at home in 10/16 matches.

Getafe (10th)

  • 5 losses in the last 8 matches.
  • 3 losses in the last 4 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away is nearly 50%.
  • Not beaten the top 9 away.

Conclusions

  • On form, Valencia should be eyeing the win today. 100% win record v 7th and lower at home v a Getafe with a 100% winless record away v top 9.
  • 47% 0-0's at halftime away scares me off but Valencia have had only 2 0-0's at halftime at home and within their last 16 matches.

20:30 - Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao - 1.25 Real Madrid

  • 1-2 Real Madrid and 0-0 last head to heads.

Real Madrid (3rd)

  • Only 1 loss in 14 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (25%).
  • 10 wins and a 1-1 draw at home v 7th and lower.
  • 23 goals scored first half this season.

Athletic Bilbao (13th)

  • Only 3 wins in 14 matches.
  • 4 consecutive 2-0 defeats away ended with a win latest.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 3/3 losses away v the top 4.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. 75% home and 81% away chance of a goal before halftime.
  • The market is certainly not expecting another 0-0. It does look like a 2/3 goal haul for Real Madrid today and that's my angle into this one if Bilbao score first.