Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Are you up for a bit of the Torneio Otavio Pinto Guimaraes U20 league, or the Indian Super League (advertising standards may have to look into the use of the word 'Super')? No?, me neither. Slim pickings today.
The Spanish Copa Del Rey features a number of lower league sides. Kick-off there at 19:15. Italian Seria C is covered via soccerstats.com but the markets are illiquid.
We head back to Europe for the tennis so I will take a look at the coupons here in lieu of any football action.
If you are new to tennis, why not just check the results for these matches at Flashscore.com and see if you can see any angles into the matches. Rather like an underdog scoring in football, we have an underdog winning the first set. That is usually a good angle in. League Football returns this weekend so my time will be spent trying to cover as many of these matches.

ATP European Open 2018

As ever with the tennis, times are fluid.

Yuki Bhambri v Salvatore Caruso - 1.5 Caruso

  • 116th v 204th. I will leave this alone. Better to focus on players we know.

Gilles Simon v Mackenzie McDonald - 1.52 Simon

  • And Gilles Simon is just such a player.
  • No ranking details for McDonald. 89th Simon.
  • Simon good nick on indoor hard, winning in Metz. 2 3 set losses in Asia.
  • I would side with Simon here and lay McDonald if McDonald breaks early or wins the first set.

Jan-Lennard Struff v Feliciano Lopez - 1.64 Struff

  • 53rd v 36th.
  • Last head to head 2014.
  • This indoor hard leg, Struff lost to Thiem in St Petersburg, Shapovalov in Tokyo and had an easy opening here in Antwerp v Lestienne.
  • 3 3 setters in Tokyo suggests laying Lopez if Lopez wins the first set.
  • 6 defeats in 7 on hard for Lopez may suggest hard and, by inference, indoor hard is not his best surface?

Marcel Granollers v Cameron Norrie - 1.98 Norrie

  • The market has this at 50/50 and the simplest method here is to lay the first set winner in the hope the market is accurate that this will go to the wire.

Richard Gasquet v Jiri Vesely - 1.28 Gasquet

  • 31st v 62nd.
  • 4th seed Gasquet here in Antwerp.
  • Indoor hard seems to suit Gasquet. Quarters in Metz, losing to eventual winner Simon. Semi finals in Tokyo, losing to Japan's son Nishikori.
  • With 8 7-6 tie break sets in his last 7 Indoor hard matches, Gasquet is going to take any player who beats him to the wire.
  • 4 defeats in 6 for Vesely on hard and indoor hard.
  • I think Gasquet looks suited to indoor hard. Lots of tie breakers for Gasquet suggests he will only be beaten in a tie breaker. I expect the seed to win.

Vasek Pospisil v Milos Raonic - 1.29 Raonic

  • Canada v Canada so 1.3 to lay Raonic might be the play here with 2 players likely to know each other's game well.
  • 109 v 24th - on rankings we are with the market.
  • Last head to head 2014 a bit too long ago. Historically though it is 3-0 Milos on recent hard.
  • Vasek has needed qualifying for his Asian leg tournaments.
  • Alternate quarter finals for Milos, the last 2 coming on hard.
  • If you think Canada v Canada will be tight, lay Milos at 1.3.
  • The form does suggest though that the rankings are right here and Milos should go deeper into this tournament.

ATP Stockholm

Oscar Otte v Jurgen Zopp - 1.95 Otte

  • Best to leave this alone. 2 players I don't know and a market screaming to lay the first set winner.

Peter Polansky v Denis Shapovalov - 1.27 Denis

  • Peter Polansky sounds like a hard-nosed cop from the East Side. He is, though, a 139 ranked tennis player.
  • Playing 51st ranked Shapovalov today.
  • These 2 have met in 2017 Challenger tour events, semi and final and 1-1. The odds were nowhere near as emphatically in favour of one player as they are today.
  • Denis last 2 indoor hard tournaments saw quarter finals and semi finals.
  • Peter Polansky P.I. has been playing mostly on the Challenger tour.
  • The market looks right here. Strong form on the right surface for Denis.
  • Value seekers will lay Denis if he wins the first set based on head to heads (from 2017) seeing Peter win 1/2 matches.

John Millman v Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.62 Stefanos

  • 128th v 91st and I thought Stefanos' ranking would be a lot better in light of a number of eye-catching performances.
  • A quarter final in the US Open, beating only the FED, is a superb feat for Millman this year. He failed to get out of qualifying in Shanghai (jet lag?) and won in 3 sets here in Stockholm in his opener v a player ranked 719th. Not the best form after the US Open heroics.
  • Since a final in Canada on hard, Stefanos is LWLLWWLWWL (L=Loss, W=Win). Unable to get past that 3rd round.
  • I cannot quite get a handle on Millman. After the US Open he has been a bit flat. On that basis I would have to lay him if he wins the first set.
  • Stefanos has yet to get that WWW on hard in recent matches. This is his first match in Stockholm.

Jack Sock v Elias Ymer - 1.5 Sock

  • 4th seeded v wild card, Ymer is a Swede in Sweden and may suddenly play above any previous form he has shown.
  • 8th v 144th. The ranking say volumes.
  • Forking L. LLLLLLLWLLL (W=win, L=loss) for Jack Sock recently is really poor stuff. Not the performance of an 8th ranked player.
  • Ymer is a Challenger Tour player.
  • I would lay Sock if Sock won the first set just because he is in a long slump and plays a home player who may be galvanized above what his rankings might tell us.

Hyeon Chung v Denis Kudla - 1.45 Chung

  • 58th v 174th, Chung has been on the rise.
  • last head to heads 2016 - 2-1 for Kudla.
  • Got past the 2nd round only once in 8 tournaments, this is the 2nd round today. A chance to lay Chung if he wins first set?
  • In his lat 8 tournaments, Kudla has got past the 2nd round on 3 occasions.
  • We can delve deeper of course and analyse the rankings of the players these 2 have lost to, but that would take too long.
  • For me, Chung, albeit a quality player, has not been mustering a long run in tournaments and stumbles 2nd round. 2nd round here so I would lay Chung if Chung wins the first set (to create shorter odds lay). Argument for laying him at the off.