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I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and see you throughout the day on Telegram. Revenge mission for Sevilla the standout today.


UEFA Champions League

20:00 - Bayern Munich v Lazio - 1.33 Bayern Munich

  • It's Sayonara Lazio. 1-4 Bayern first leg. Lazio will go through with a 0-4 tonight in the simplest way. 2 losses and a poor win v Crotone, last gasp goal, since the Bayern mauling does not augur well tonight.

20:00 - Chelsea v Atletico Madrid - 2.20 Chelsea

  • 0-1 Chelsea from the opening match. A precious away goal. 0-0 therefore is all that Chelsea need in order to progress in the simplest manner. Atl Madrid will go through with a 0-2 scoreline and remember.....they do have Luis Suarez. But Chelsea have 4 clean sheets and 2 0-0's since the first leg match.

English Championship

19:00 - Nottingham Forest v Norwich - 2.00 Norwich

Nottm Forest - 17th

  • No win in 4.
  • Failed to score, or concede, 2 goals last 8 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, 4 at fulltime.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.
  • Not beaten top 9.
  • 20/29 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Norwich - 1st

  • Look very reliable. Came from behind last match to win. 8 consecutive wins.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 2+ goals last 4 away matches.
  • 100% wins v 18th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • Norwich look very reliable. Forest may test Norwich's ability to score that 2nd goal. They have not scored or conceded 2 goals in 8 but are playing a real form side in Norwich. I cannot see anything other than a Norwich positive here.
  • 1st goal: Nottm Forest have conceded first in 10/20 home matches while Norwich have won 5/7 away matches against bottom-half teams. Norwich have scored first in 4/7 away matches against bottom-half teams.

19:00 - QPR v Millwall - 2.45 QPR

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 QPR home matches and in 14/18 Millwall away matches against middle-third teams. Millwall have drawn the first half in 10/16 away matches against middle-third teams.

19:00 - Wycombe v Barnsley - 1.83 Barnsley

Wycombe - 24th and bottom

  • 4 consecutive defeats to nil ended with a win 1-0 v Preston latest.
  • Win, Loss, Win at home recently. 2 1-0 wins.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home, 3 at fulltime.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.
  • Have beaten 5th and 8th at home.

Barnsley - 6th

  • 8 wins and a 0-0 last 9 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • 3 1-2 wins v the bottom 4 away.

Conclusions

  • A Wycombe win is likely to be 1-0 but if they score first I will lay over 1.5 goals to cover and back Barnsley in the +1 market. I like Barnsley's form and 1-2 win sequence away v the bottom 4.
  • 1st goal: Barnsley have conceded first in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams and they have lost 5/10 such matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 12/18 Wycombe W home matches.

19:45 - Birmingham v Reading - 2.25 Reading

Birmingham  -21st

  • Only 3 wins since 12th December 2020.
  • Conceded at home last 11.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.
  • 1-2 win last head to head. Also 0-0 away v 3rd and 1-0 win v 4th at home interesting but that was the only home win v the top 12.
  • 11 goals conceded at home last 15 minutes.

Reading - 5th

  • 3 wins and a 1-1 latest.
  • Those wins saw clean sheets.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 away was a 1-0 v bottom side Wycombe.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away, only 4 at fulltime.
  • v bottom 4 only managed 1 goal in a match max away.

Conclusions

  • A spattering of good results for Brum v the top sides but the fact remains only 1 win at home v the top 12. If Birmingham score first, as with Wycombe, lay the over 1.5 goals and back Reading +1. Reading in good ultra recent form.
  • 1st goal: Birmingham have conceded first in 7/9 home matches against top-six teams and they have lost 9/11 home matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 11/17 Reading away matches against bottom-six teams.

19:45 - Blackburn v Bristol City - 1.83 Blackburn

Blackburn - 14th

  • Need Shearer and Sutton. Only 1 win last 10 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, only 2 at fulltime.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.
  • Unbeaten at home v 6th-13th.
  • 10 goals scored last 15 mins at home.

Bristol City - 12th

  • 3 consecutive away wins breaks 3 consecutive away defeats and 2 consecutive home defeats.
  • 3 goals scored in each away win recently.
  • No draw in 23 and 15 away.
  • 4/4 wins away v 8th-13th.

Conclusions

  • Bristol City are inconsistent but 3 consecutive away wins scoring 3 goals breaks a hell of a loss of defeats. Can they keep this away form going. If so, they are favoured v a home side with only 1 win in 10.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Blackburn home matches against middle-third teams. Bristol City have won 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

19:45 - Sheffield Wed v Huddersfield - 2.70 Sheffield Wed

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/14 Sheffield Wed home matches and in 5/7 Huddersfield away matches against bottom-six teams. Sheffield Wed have lost 5/8 home matches against bottom-half teams.

Spanish La Liga Primera

18:00 - Sevilla v Elche - 1.40 Sevilla

Sevilla - 4th

  • 7 wins and 2 defeats last 9 matches.
  • 2 losses and a win last 3 matches.
  • 6 wins and a loss at home recently.
  • One loss recently was a 2-1 away loss v Elche and that was definitely down to Sevilla team changes with Champions league in mind.

Conclusions

  • I will end the research here. With such a recent head to head, and under extenuating circumstances, I sniff a Sevilla revenge mission with what will be a First XI from kick off. That was NOT the case in the recent away loss v Elche.
  • Match outcome: Sevilla have won 12/16 home matches while Elche have lost 8/11 away matches. Elche have conceded first in 8/11 away matches.

Italian Serie A

14:00 - Torino v Sassuolo - 2.50 Torino

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.
  • Match outcome: Torino FC have lost 7/10 home matches against top-half teams and they have conceded first in 7/11 such matches. Sassuolo have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.