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More Champions League qualifiers, and a Europa League qualifier. Chinese Super League too and a 3rd placed play-off (leave alone?) in Africa.

AFRICAN CUP OF NATIONS

20:00 - Tunisia v Nigeria - 2.58 Nigeria

  • The dreaded 3rd placed play-off. About as appealing as being stuck in a lift with Piers Morgan. I won't research this match given that this is not the match that these 2 sides wanted to play. These are also top 3 ranked sides in the tournament.

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUALIFIERS

  • I like using FIFA rankings to differentiate teams in Internationals and to give us a gauge. We don't have a rankings system for teams in leagues throughout Europe so it is very difficult to gauge teams. Our focus therefore should be to the market, the first leg result and the in-play stats.

17:30 - FK Riga v Dundalk - 2.44 Riga

  • 2.44 the market suggests caution.
  • 0-0 from the first leg. With the away goal rule in place, it is advantage Dundalk.
  • Latvia v Republic of Ireland.

18:00 - Qarabag Fk v Partizani Tirana - 1.29 Qarabag

  • 0-0 from the first leg. As with the above match, it is advantage Tirana on the away goal rule.
  • Azerbaijan v Albania.
  • The market is clearly in Qarabag's favour. Qarabag will be eyeing 2 goals I'm sure here to insure against an away goal concession.

18:00 - Rosenborg v Linfield - 1.15 Rosenborg

  • 0-2 Rosenborg from the first leg. No surprise at all. Norway v Northern Ireland. A first half and second half goal scored by Rosenborg.
  • The market expects Rosenborg to compound the aggregate result, 2/3 goals is expected of Rosenborg.

18:00 - AIK v FC Avan Academy - 1.17 AIK

  • 1-2 Avan Academy from the opening leg is a surprise, given the market quote for AIK today.
  • There's a lot more to this scoreline. Avan scored first via a penalty.Then there was a 13th minute AIK red card.
  • So watch out for dominance from the Swedes AIK today if 11 v 11.

18:30 - Ludogorets v Ferencvaros - 1.75 Ludogorets

  • 1-2 Ferencvaros from the first leg. Ludogorets have an away goal.
  • A wide open 2nd leg. And a match for the shortlist. Bulgaria v Hungary.

19:00 - Piast Gliwice v BATE Borisov - 2.02 Piast

  • Piast scored first in the first leg. 1-1 it ended. 89th minute BATE red card did not affect the outcome.
  • Poland v Belarus.
  • Slight BATE advantage with the away goal rule.

19:00 - CFR Cluj v FC Astana - 1.76 CFR

  • 0-1 Astana from the first leg. They did not concede an away goal. If they score an away goal today Cluj will need to score 3 goals.
  • Romania v Kazakhstan.
  • It was a 68th minute goal from Astana.
  • Cluj must eye a convincing home win in order to account for an errant away goal.

19:15 - NK Maribor v Valur - 1.39 Maribor

  • 3-0 Maribor from the first leg, all away goals and a clear dominance from the Slovenians. They need not win today, only avoid a 0-3 defeat or higher!

19:15 - FK Sutjeska v Slovan Bratislava - 1.47 Slovan

  • 1-1 from the first leg.
  • Slovan scored first 82nd minute. FK equalized 90th minute.
  • The market is firmly with the away Slovakians.

19:45 - Celtic v Sarajevo - 1.18 Celtic

  • Celtic conceded first but replied by halftime. 1-3 it ended. Obviously the Scottish Champions are the better team and a side expected to go deep into the Champions League.

UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE QUALIFIERS

17:00 - Chikhura Sachkhere v Fola Esch - 1.8 Chik

  • A messy first leg. Fola Esch opened the scoring with a penalty. Chikhura equalized and won with an 86th minute penalty.
  • I have no interest in this match unless the in-play stats reveal.

CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE

12:35 - Shenzhen FC v Chongqing Lifan - 2.52 Shenzhen

  • Wholly unappealing betting market.

Shenzhen (14th)

  • Only 1 win since 31st March.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No win in 9 matches.
  • All wins have come at home albeit v 12th and lower.
  • 1-0 loss v Lifan earlier this season.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Chongqing (7th)

  • 3 draws, 2 wins, 2 losses last 7 matches.
  • 2-4-4 goals conceded last 3 away matches.
  • A side who can concede, and score, heavily away. 4-1 loss to 2nd, 2-3 wins v 3rd and 5th. Then 3-1 defeat to 9th and 3-3 v 15th.
  • 17 of 19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Shenzhen look weak and have only won v 12th and lower at home. Chongqing though look equally as bad. 2-4-4 goals conceded last 3 away matches. They have impressive wins 2-3 v 3rd and 5th but then contrarian 3-1 defeat v 9th and 3-3 v 15th away.
  • Guess what? It's 2.52 the favourite for a reason!!
  • I would certainly lay the 0-0 2nd half if 0-0 at halftime.

12:35 - Shanghai East Asia v Hebei CFFC - 1.35 Shanghai East Asia

Shanghai East Asia (3rd)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 10 wins in their last 11 matches.
  • 6 wins in their last 7 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • All wins and 1 0-0 home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 15 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Hebei (12th)

  • Only 1 win in 4 came last home match.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • 2+ goals conceded in their last 5 away.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • Another clear cut affair it seems revolving around the home side scoring 2+ goals it seems.
  • Shanghai tend to avoid draws so note that and note Shanghai score a huge proportion of their goals 2nd half.
  • We expect a home win.

12:35 - Beijing Guoan v Beijing Renhe - 1.11 Guoan

Beijing Guoan (2nd)

  • Beijing 'ah Go on go on father, have a cup of tea' look to be reliable week in and week out.
  • This is a Beijing derby as you can see but the market seems convinced form will overcome.
  • All wins bar 2 away defeats.
  • Failed to score only once away.
  • 9 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored in those 9 wins.
  • Beat Renhe 0-1 earlier this season.

Beijing Renhe (16th)

  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • 2+ goals conceded in their last 5 matches and last 4 away.
  • Conceded last 8 away.
  • 16 of 20 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I cannot see any surprises today despite this being a local derby. Guoan should score 2 goals at least and that should revolve around a winning result.
  • Note Renhe could keep it tight first half but concede 2nd half as they do.

12:35 - Wuhan Zall v Jiangsu Suning - 2.46 Wuhan

  • Unlikely we'll find an angle with 2.46 the favourite but I'll research.

Wuhan Zall (5th)

  • Only 2 losses last 8 matches.
  • Last 3 wins did come away from home.
  • 5 of 7 defeats have congregated v top 4. But did lose to Jiangsu 2-1 earlier this season.
  • Unbeaten at home v 10th and lower.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Jiangsu (9th)

  • 3 losses and a 2-2 last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded last 12.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • Only away win came v 14th.
  • 2+ goals conceded in all bar 2 away matches.

Conclusions

  • I would give a hesitant nod towards Wuhan Zall given they are unbeaten at home v 10th and lower. A large proportion of their defeats came v the top 4.
  • Jiangsu too have only 1 away win v 14th. They tend to concede 2 goals as well away. Do remember 2.46 the favourite suggests a toughie. There is a good argument for Wuhan Zall.

12:35 - Luneng v Tianjin Quanjian - 1.41 Luneng

Luneng (4th)

  • Only 5 defeats.
  • The last 4 defeats came away.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 home matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2-4 win v Tianjin away this season.

Tianjin (15th)

  • Only 1 win.
  • 4 score draws in 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches.
  • No win in 10.
  • Conceded last 11 and last 8 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 matches and last 5 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • We must be with the home side. A draw is best case for Tianjin even if scoring. We should expect a home win.
  • You may want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given the expectation for goals.