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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 17, 2018

In research, league football trumps cup football. I will research the French Ligue 1 matches first as the form should be well-founded. I will do a shortlist at DRT Facebook today to sort the good candidates from the less-clear candidates.

19:45 - Swansea v Wolves - 2.42 Swansea

  • Well, fancy that! Another 0-0 early January sees this replay today. I get the impression that a majority of teams involved in the Fa Cup do not seem to want to progress in said Cup.
  • The first leg was very tight in-play stats wise. 11 shots to 10 and 6 corners to 4 (I look at corners as corners signal attacking intent).
  • A match I cannot fathom I'm afraid. I would, if I was a Wolves manager, get out of the FA Cup distraction and focus solely on retaining 1st place in the Championship. Similarly, as a new Swansea manager (caretaker manager) I would seek to retain my Premier League berth rather than FA Cup glory.

19:45 - Wigan v Bournemouth - 2.38 Wigan

  • 2-2 from the first match. Yes, I couldn't believe it. Not a 0-0?
  • Wigan led 0-2 in that match. Bournemouth scored 2 2nd half goals, one in the 92nd minute.
  • 63% possession Bournemouth.
  • 10 corners to 5 Bournemouth.
  • 16 shots to 5 Bournemouth.
  • That's 2 consecutive 2-2 draws now for Bournemouth and a feeling (although it may have been because they were playing at home) that Bournemouth are up for a fight!
  • I will give a gentle nod towards Bournemouth this evening and take on any Wigan lead, yes, even another 2-0 lead.

19:45 - Chelsea v Norwich - 1.29 Chelsea

  • Premier League v Championship.
  • Another FA Cup match which finished 0-0 early January.
  • All I have to work with is the inplay stats for that first leg to get a glimpse into the attitude of Chelsea.
  • 5 corners to 3 Chelsea.
  • 56% possession Chelsea.
  • 16 shots to 7 Chelsea.
  • The attacking 5 for Chelsea were not first team players.
  • Team news is important here. We saw with Leicester yesterday (similar odds) that the inclusion of first team players (particularly in attack) paid dividends.

18:00 - Lille v Rennes - 2.18 Lille

  • The home side has tended to go unbeaten in head to heads. Coincidence or strong pattern?

Lille (15th)

  • 4 defeats in their last 10 matches all came away from home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Not played 7th-11th inclusive at home.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Rennes (10th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats albeit v form sides PSG, Monaco and Marseille.
  • Failed to score only 4 times this season.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded away v teams below them.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If 0-0 halftime I'd expect goals 2nd half.
  • 100% both teams to score record for Rennes away v teams below them in the league so note that too if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Apart from that, the form for these 2 is unreadable.

18:00 - Guingamp v Lyon - 2.26 Lyon

  • Guingamp are unbeaten in 3 of the last 4 head to heads.

Guingamp (7th)

  • 4 wins and 2 0-0's last 6 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets last 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All defeats bar 1 have come v top 6 (mostly away from home).
  • Lyon won 2-1 earlier this season.

Lyon (3rd)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 4 2-1 scorelines in their last 6 matches. Failed to score that 2nd goal last match despite coming from behind.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive 1-2 wins away.
  • 6 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 away matches.
  • Only away loss v PSG.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2 teams in good immediate form.
  • Watch out if 0-0 at halftime. Guingamp tend towards that at home. Certainly goals 2nd half.
  • Lay Guingamp if Guingamp score first (and they have scored last 9 at home). Lyon love their 1-2's and recently have come from behind not to lose.

18:00 - Toulouse FC v Nantes - 2.8 Toulouse

  • A market which does not appeal. Toulouse looked untrustworthy in their match v St Etienne last time out.
  • A draw and 2 wins for Nantes in the last 3 head to heads.

Toulouse (19th - 2nd bottom)

  • 6 losses in 7 matches now.
  • 2 1-2 losses in their last 3 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • All defeats v top 6 but scored in 5 of those 6 defeats.

Nantes (5th)

  • 6 1-0 and 2 2-1 wins this season. Tight when they win.
  • 2 1-0 wins in their last 3 matches.
  • PSG only beat them 0-1 last match.
  • Only scored 2 goals once away.
  • No away 0-0.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away - 50% of away matches.
  • 4 1-0 wins and a 2-1 home and away v bottom 5.

Conclusions

  • If Toulouse score as they tend to do, albeit in defeat, v top 6, then that scuppers a Nantes 0-1 doesn't it? 1-2 if Nantes are to win?
  • If 0-0 at halftime I would not be concerned. I would look to at least a goal 2nd half.
  • Toulouse did dominate St Etienne last match but simply fell flat infront of goal. Were they to score first today I would have to lay them.

18:00 - Angers v Troyes - 1.87 Angers

  • 3-0 Troyes in their 2017 head to head.

Angers (18th)

  • Only 3 wins. 2-1 last match at home a rarity.
  • Only 1 loss in 4. A sniff of a recovery?
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 4 0-0's at halftime.
  • Conceded in their last 11 and last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 1-1 at home v 15th, 0-1 v 19th and 0-1 v 20th. Struggle v Strugglers?

Troyes (17th)

  • 8 defeats in 11 matches. 3 wins were at home.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Angers might not get their own way here. Troyes are unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower. Does that not count for anything?
  • Strugglers, we have seen this season, are unreliable types.
  • On form though we'd lay any late 0-0. Troyes have no draw in 11 and Angers no 0-0.

18:00 - SC Amiens v Montpellier Herault SC - 2.34 Montpellier

Amiens (16th)

  • 5 consecutive defeats, failing to score in 4 of those matches.
  • 3 consecutive 1-0 defeats.
  • No 0-0.
  • Have beaten 6th, 9th, 13th and 15th at home.
  • Draw 1-1 with Montpellier earlier this season.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Montpellier (8th)

  • Only 2 losses in 15 matches.8 draw though.
  • No defeat in 7 away.
  • 0-1, 0-1, 1-1, 1-0 away v 14th and lower. Struggles v the strugglers.
  • Not conceded 2 goals though away v 13th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • Another match I don't want to take sides in. I tend to research all matches, it does not mean all matches are readable or of interest.
  • Amiens are winning v mid table teams at home despite recent defeats. Defeats have been 1-0 recently too.
  • Montpellier have had 3 1-0's and a 1-1 v 14th and lower away. Not for me.

18:00 - Metz v St Etienne - 2.6 Metz

  • 2-2 and 3-1 St Etienne in the last 2 head to heads.

Metz (20th)

  • Only 3 wins. 2 draws and 2 wins now in 4 matches. Improvement.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 14 of 21 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

St Etienne (14th)

  • Only 2 wins in 14, one was a win at home v Metz.
  • No win in 6 away matches.
  • conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • 2 away wins were 0-1 v 9th and 10th.

Conclusions

  • St Etienne did beat Metz with ease at home. But that was one of only 2 wins in 14 matches.
  • Metz are suddenly building an unbeaten run.
  • Oh boy! Another unreadable match. Next please!

20:00 - PSG v Dijon - 1.1 PSG

  • 1-3 and 1-2 PSG in the last 2 head to heads.

PSG (1st)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 10 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of those 10 wins.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • Scored first 9/10 at home. Led at halftime 8/10 at home.

Dijon (10th)

  • Last 5 wins came at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 9 away.
  • 3-3-1-4-2-2-2-2-1 conceded away.

Conclusions

  • PSG should be scoring 2/3 + goals today.
  • PSG could even lead at halftime so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • When these last met, it took PSG until the 70th minute to score. Note that today if 0-0 late in the 2nd half. I would even back 2-0 with 20 mins to go if 0-0 at 70th minute.

18:00 - Atletico Madrid v Sevilla - 1.46 Atl Madrid

  • The Copa Del Rey is a two-legged affair. My argument therefore, particularly for the away side, is that they get a 2nd bite of the cherry if losing or drawing today.

Atl Madrid

  • Recent form home and away - 11 wins in 13 matches. Solid stuff.
  • Recent form home - 6 consecutive wins.
  • Copa form home and away - 2 draws and 3 wins to nil.
  • Copa form at home - only 1 draw in 23 matches. Something to work with?Have been vulnerable at home losing recently to the likes of Celta Vigo, Las Palmas and Barcelona.

Sevilla

  • Recent form home and away - poor recent form, only 2 wins in 8 v Cadiz in the cup.
  • Recent form away - only 3 wins in 12 - 2 of those wins came in the Copa v lower league opponents.
  • Copa form home and away - only 1 loss in 18 matches was v Real Madrid - 4 consecutive wins albeit v Catagena and Cadiz.
  • Copa form away - perhaps tellingly, failed to beat Real Madrid and Barcelona. Can Atl Madrid be lumped in with those 2?

Conclusions

  • If you read the research at the weekend you'd know that Sevilla away from home are simply dire. Very strange as they were 6th in the league and it's the same players who play at home!
  • I would lay any late draw based on Madrid.
  • I think this is a match to favour the home side. Solid at home and the best defence, statistically, in the league (yes they may play some squad players).
  • Lay Sevilla if Sevilla score first.

18:00 - Valencia v Alaves - 1.31 Valencia

Valencia

  • Recent form home and away - a draw and 3 consecutive wins. A return to form after a quick run of defeats.
  • Recent form home - only 1 loss in 12 matches saw 10 wins.
  • Copa form home and away - 3 wins and a draw last 4.
  • Copa form at home - only 3 losses since 2006. They like the cup, at home!

Alaves

  • Recent form home and away - 7 wins and 2 losses in 9 matches.
  • Recent form away - WLWLWLWL recently (W=Win, L=Loss).
  • Copa form home and away - only 1 loss in 13 matches was v Barcelona. Admittedly playing lower league sides.
  • Copa form away - only 1 loss in 7 matches.

Conclusions

  • Alaves have decent form and decent cup form, albeit the cup form is v lesser league sides. Valencia's cup form at home cannot be ignored. I must be with Valencia today.

20:00 - Espanyol v Barcelona - 1.36 Barcelona

Espanyol

  • Recent form home and away - 3 wins and a draw last 5 matches includes a 1-0 home win v Atl Madrid.
  • Recent form home - only 1 win in 4 at home was that win v Atl Madrid.
  • Copa form home and away - only 3 wins in 13 matches. 2 wins in 3 matches v Tenerife and Levante.
  • Copa form at home - only 1 win in 4 matches was a 3-2 v Tenerife.

Barcelona

  • Recent form home and away - unbeaten since 20th August 2017.
  • Recent form away - only Real Madrid and Juventus have beaten Barca away since August 2017.