Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. I have to attend a visa immigration meeting tomorrow which makes it difficult for me to do a Telegram today so apologies in advance. If I am up and about, certainly I'll telegram.


ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

18:00 - Burnley v Fulham - 2.84 Fulham

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 14/19 Burnley home matches against bottom-six teams and in 8/10 Fulham away matches. Burnley have conceded first in 9/13 home matches.
  • 2.84 suggests this is extremely tough to score. Above is football form labs' conclusion.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets for Fulham v goal laden sides in West Ham and Everton are interesting. The in-play stats were solid for Fulham in so far as they kept Everton to a single shot on target all match. So, I would ask you to watch out for this strangling of opponent's shots on target stats. Only 3 wins though for Fulham, albeit they won last away match v Everton 0-2.
  • If we look at the teams Burnley have lost to recently, Man Utd, West Ham (1-0 defeats), Chelsea and Man City (2-0 defeats), we can argue (as we did in the West Ham match) that Burnley are only losing to top notch sides. 7/11 defeats this season for Burnley came v the top 5. 3 of 4 defeats outside of the top 5 were only 1-0.
  • Angles? What do we make of 2 consecutive clean sheets for Fulham and a 0-2 win v Everton away latest? Defence was solid, strangling the life out of Everton. Fulham will have to be wary though as it takes a solid side to beat Burnley of late. They have lost to only top 5 sides recently so may shine v the struggling Fulham side?
  • A reminder that 2.84 suggests the market really cannot split these sides.

20:15 - Everton v Man City - 1.38 Man City

Everton - 7th

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches. A worrying 0-2 home defeat v Fulham last match follows a 3-3 v Man Utd.
  • 3 losses in 4 home matches now saw Everton fail to score.
  • They have conceded in their last 7 and last 5 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • v the top 5 at home, Everton have scored 1-1-1-0 goals.
  • 10/16 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Man City - 1st (25th Feb Champions League)

  • 11 consecutive wins, 5 away.
  • No defeat in 16 and in 5 away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 matches and last 4 away.
  • In 4/6 matches away v the top 11, Man City have dropped points.
  • 14/21 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Bayern, Porto all score draws coming from behind and in the Champions League with matches scheduled at the same time as Man City's. On that basis, the Curse of the Champions League may bite in play but the side could wriggle out unscathed.
  • Notable patterns? Everton have not scored that 2nd goal at home v the top 5. Man City have dropped points in 4/6 matches away v the top 11 but that may be trumped by the imperious recent form.
  • So....a la Porto and Bayern, might Man City be distracted in play but get out of it without a loss? Watch out.

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

  • First leg matches so really hard to research. React in-play. Yesterday's matches saw the away sides on top. Is that the trend? The away side to secure a goal or two?

20:00 - Porto v Juventus - 2.06 Juventus


20:00 - Sevilla v Dortmund - 2.4 Sevilla


SPANISH LA LIGA

18:00 - Levante v Atletico Madrid - 1.89 Atletico Madrid

Levante - 11th

  • Only 3 defeats in 17, 2 came away and one recently v Osasuna at home 0-1.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 6/8 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 11 and last 6 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Only 1 match played v top 4 at home, a 0-2 loss to 2nd.

Atletico Madrid - 1st (24th Feb Champions League)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 5 consecutive away wins. 2+ goals scored last 7 and last 5 away.
  • Scored last 10 matches.
  • 12/18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Atl Madrid are getting nearer to the Champions League and that usually heralds a slip up potentially. Their seasonal form does not suggest a shock here but you never know. Levante remember have scored 2+ goals in 6/8 matches but conceded in their last 11 matches. Atl Madrid should get a positive result here if scoring 2+ goals as they have done in their last 5 away matches.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:00 - Millwall v Birmingham - 2.2 Millwall

Millwall - 14th

  • Unbeaten in 6 matches. 2 consecutive wins.
  • Draw, Draw, Win at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, 3 at fulltime.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • Only 2 wins at home v 15th and 22nd.

Birmingham - 23rd

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches was a 0-1 v Middlesbrough.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away, 5 at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten away v 8th and lower.
  • All draws v 15th and lower away.
  • All 0-0's away v 17th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Birmingham are unbeaten v 15th and lower away but the majority of draws and all 0-0's v 17th and lower. 0-0 last head to head and a high % of 0-0's. Back 0-0 pre match to cash out as late as possible?

19:00 - QPR v Brentford - 1.98 Brentford

QPR - 18th

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 at home came last home match, a 1-0.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, only 2 at fulltime.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.
  • Not beaten top 5 at home.

Brentford - 2nd

  • Only 4 defeats. Lost their last match unexpectedly v Barnsley 0-2. Failed to score their usual goal before halftime and goals 2nd half. Blip? Or something terminal?
  • No defeat in 10 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away matches. Scored last 8 away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 away matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, only once at fulltime.
  • All wins v 17th-22nd home and away.
  • 15 goals scored away last 30 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Will Brentford really go 2 matches without scoring, indeed 2 consecutive defeats? I cannot see it although it is a mystery why they suddenly can fail to score after such a solid run.
  • Both sides again have a high % of 0-0's at halftime but do not expect it at fulltime. Both teams to score has a chance if Brentford are back to their best.

19:00 - Swansea v Nottm Forest - 2.12 Swansea

Swansea - 4th

  • Unbeaten in 8 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 and in 11 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, 3 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 home loss v 19th. 0-1 win last head to head.

Nottm Forest - 17th

  • Only 1 loss in 11 matches.
  • 2 draws and 3 wins away recently.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored in their last 6 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Not beaten home and away v the top 9.
  • All defeats away v the top 8 failing to score.
  • 9/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are in good recent form but Nottm Forest have lost all matches v top 8, failing to score. That is damning enough for me to side with the Swans today who are undefeated in 8 matches and in 11 at home.
  • Yet another match with a high % of 0-0's at halftime.

19:00 - Coventry v Norwich - 1.96 Norwich

Coventry - 20th

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, 5 at fulltime.
  • 1-1 last head to head.

Norwich - 1st

  • Only 5 defeats. Lost their last away match.
  • Failed to score in 3 consecutive matches and then scored 4 goals at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 17th and lower. only 1 loss away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • The league positions will obviously bias towards Norwich. Norwich are unbeaten home and away v 17th and lower.

19:45 - Barnsley v Blackburn - 2.68 Barnsley

  • Not researching this one.

20:15 - Bournemouth v Rotherham - 1.84 Bournemouth

Bournemouth - 6th

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Loss, Win at home.
  • Conceded last 4 at home.
  • 2-2 last head to head.
  • 17/25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Rotherham - 21st

  • Loss, Win, Win, Loss recently.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • Scored last 10.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Not beaten the top 7.
  • 13 goals in total last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Watch out for goals 75th+ minute. Bournemouth are in a slump but their opponents are yet to beat the top 7 so Bournemouth may get away with it today.
  • Second half goals bias.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

18:00

St Mirren v Hamilton - 1.71 St Mirren

St Mirren - 7th

  • Only 3 wins in 10 matches, 2 came away.
  • Draw , Win, Draw at home.
  • 7 goals conceded at home 16th-30th minute.
  • 0-1 win v Hamilton earlier.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 4th and lower.

Hamilton - 11th

  • 1-1 v Rangers and 4-1 win v Motherwell latest (but they always beat Motherwell!!).
  • Wins away v 5th, 9th (twice), and 12th.

Conclusions

  • Not a match to get the pulses racing. I cannot find a strong angle.

Celtic v Aberdeen - 1.53 Celtic

Celtic - 2nd

  • Only 3 losses.
  • 5 wins and a loss last 6 matches.
  • 2/3 losses came v Rangers.
  • Scored in their last 7 and last 3 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, 1 at fulltime.
  • 3-3 last head to head.

Aberdeen - 4th

  • Only 1 win away v the top 7.
  • 5 consecutive matches without scoring.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, 4 at fulltime.

Conclusions

  • If Aberdeen struggle to score, as they have latest, then that should seal their fate. Celtic have scored 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Aberdeen may get another 0-0 at halftime but I would not expect 0-0 fulltime.