Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a quick review/preview video at DRT Facebook. Not a day for pre-match research, rather for in-play stats and reacting to events.

ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP

  • I am not necessarily going to research these matches but do note all matches have odds-on favourites.

18:00 - West Brom v Harrogate Town - 1.34 West Brom


19:00 - Ipswich v Fulham - 1.97 Fulham


19:45 - Leeds v Hull - 1.43 Leeds


19:45 - Bristol City v Northampton - 1.75 Bristol City


19:45 - Southampton v Brentford - 1.76 Southampton


20:15 - Everton v Salford City - 1.2 Everton


FRENCH LIGUE 1

20:00 - Paris St Germain v Metz - 1.28 PSG

  • 2 consecutive 0-1 losses for Paris St Germain v Lens and Marseille.
  • The market sticks with PSG with their unique and quarantined team.
  • Metz only won 1 away match v the top 15 last season.
  • PSG team news must be checked. If Metz take the lead, do lay Metz but cover the 0-1. I really cannot see a 3rd consecutive PSG loss.

5 Champions League qualifiers today won't get any research. Only one odds on favourite is Maccabi Tel Aviv who have already conceded 4 goals in 2 matches this season. 13 consecutive clean sheets began their season last season so any thoughts I had about a defensive Tel Aviv in all competitions has been thrown out of the water!
16:00, 18:00 and 19:30 are the kick-offs.
We also see Europa League qualifiers at 17:30 and 19:00. Not researching these either. Just be aware of kick-off times because if there are any angles, I can pass them on to you. The Russian Cup will enter this list to. Matches throughout the day and all away teams are odds-on favourites. All 3 of these competitions will generate our trading angles via the in-play stats.

SPL

19:45 - St Mirren v Celtic - 1.18 Celtic

  • Third time's a charm? Celtic have been these odds or lower in their last 2 matches and did precisely as per expectations i.e. 3+ goals scored.
  • With that in mind we should expect another emphatic win today, scoring 3 goals minimum.
  • St Mirren have failed to score in their last 2 matches and their wins were only 1-0 so if they score first, back Celtic +1 but cover the 1-0 scoreline. St Mirren's 3-0 loss to Rangers should be our template today. Celtic's last 2 matches have seen them score before halftime.

SWEDISH SUPERETTAN

18:00

IK Brage v GAIS - 1.82 IK Brage

Brage - 6th

  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • 3 home wins have seen 2/3 goals scored.
  • 6 goals scored first 15 mins of home matches.

GAIS - 12th

  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 12/18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals. Slightly favour Brage given GAIS simply can't win away.
  • Brage, if they score first half, score 1st 15 mins at home.

Jonkopings Sodra v Orgryte - 1.91 Jonkopings Sodra

Jonkopings - 3rd

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 at home.
  • 2 clean sheets in 3 matches.
  • Scored last 6 at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • 12/17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Orgryte - 7th

  • Only 1 loss in 10 came away.
  • 4 clean sheets last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches away.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Not played the top 3 away but lost away v 4th-9th.

Conclusions

  • Orgryte tend to lose away v the top 9. Any reason to expect a sudden turnaround v 3rd?
  • Orgryte did win the previous head to head but Jonkopings, with only 2 losses in 11 matches have the recent form so I would expect them not to lose.

Sundsvall v Akropolis IF - 1.93 Sundsvall

Sundsvall - 8th

  • 4 consecutive defeats, 3 came away.
  • Loss, Win, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (25%).
  • Only played 2 of the top 7 at home, losing to 1st and 5th. 1-1 v Akropolis earlier.
  • Not beaten a top 5 side.

Akropolis - 4th

  • Only 2 losses.
  • Lost last away match.
  • Failed to score only first match.
  • Scored last 8 away.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away (25%).
  • 6 draws and 2 wins home and away v 6th-14th.
  • 8/11 goals scored away came 1st half.
  • 8/11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • We might see both teams score but Akropolis have scored in their last 16 matches so lay Sundsvall if they score first.
  • Sundsvall are yet to beat the top 5 this season. Will that continue today.
  • With 25% 0-0 at halftime both sides, we have a 3/4 chance of seeing a goal before halftime so...lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market?

Halmstads v Umea FC - 1.56 Halmstads

Halmstads - 2nd

  • Only 3 losses.
  • Lost their last home match.
  • 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • 11/14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Umea - 14th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Unbeaten in 4 but 3 draws.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • 3 1-0 losses v the top 3.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal away v the top 13.

Conclusions

  • Umea might put up a fight but eventually capitulate in what may be a 1-0 defeat.
  • Umea struggle to score that 2nd goal away so lay them if they score first. Halmstads' recent clean sheets should ensure Umea score few. I am with the home side here.
  • Given so may under 2.5 goals matches for Umea you might want to back 0-0 pre match.

Degerfors v Dalkurd FF - 1.47 Degerfors

Degerfors - 1st

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • Scored first in 7/9 at home.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • Beat bottom 3 at home and play 4th bottom at home today.

Dalkurd - 12th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches away.
  • Conceded last 8 away.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Not beaten top 12 away.

Conclusions

  • The market is right here. Dalkurd may score but likely in loss. No win v top 12 away. Unlikely there will be a trade as Degerfors have scored first in 7/9 at home.