Patience required until the weekend it seems. Look at how many French Ligue 1 matches today see a 2.4 + odds favourite! The cup matches see trading angles via the in-play stats.
FRENCH LIGUE 1
4 teams in or around the 2.4 mark for the favourite tells us it's a tough old coupon in France.
18:00 - Monaco v Nice - 2.4 Monaco
- A Cote D'Azur derby. New manager Thierry Henry too clouds matters.
- Monaco are 2nd bottom currently. Nice are 8th.
- A couple of away wins for Monaco under Henry fizzled out with 2 defeats to nil and a 1-1 v Marseille in another Cote D'Azur derby.
- Monaco have scored 2 goals only once under Henry. I think he's thinking of having a run out.
- He still hasn't stopped the rot at home. Losses v Montpellier and Guingamp is really poor stuff.
- No home win yet for Monaco.
- Nice look far more robust at first glance.
- Only 1 loss in 9 for Nice did come last match 2-0 v Strasbourg.
- Nice, I have mentioned this before, look solid defensively, conceding 1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-2-0 in recent matches.
- 11 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches result.
- Nice are unbeaten v 11th and lower.
- Note this is a derby and form can be thrown out of the window. But on season-long form, Nice would be fancied not to lose. If their defense clicks, back 0-0 pre match and hope for Monaco's attack to falter and Nice's defence to click. I would have to lay Monaco if Monaco score first. Very rarely do Nice concede a 2nd goal.
18:00 - Nimes v Nantes - 2.44 Nimes
- 2.44 and 2 teams hardly the most reliable.
- 12th v 11th as well.
- 3 recent wins for Nimes ended with losses v Lille and Rennes, conceding 3 and 4 goals.
- Nimes are unbeaten at home v 9th and lower, but have not played 11th - 16th at home so a slight gap in form there.
- Only 1 loss home and away for Nimes v 9th and lower.
- 9 of 11 Nimes goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- Nantes failed to score in their 3 recent defeats. Rock solid at home of late, they faltered away with a draw and 2 defeats last 3 matches.
- 2 recent defeats have only been 1-0.
- Nantes have conceded in each of their last 9 away.
- Another side with inconsistent form away. Beat 6th, lost to 18th.
- I don't like Nantes unreadable away form. For me, I'd note Nimes tend to score 2nd half so if the match is 0-0 at halftime I would take a chance and take on that 0-0 2nd half.
18:00 - Toulouse v Lyon - 1.76 Lyon
- 14th plays 3rd today.
- Only 2 wins since 15th September 2018 for Toulouse. Those wins came in their last 2 away matches.
- They've conceded 2 goals at least at home in 3 of their last 4 home matches and that may leave them vulnerable to 3rd in the league.
- Only 3 clean sheets suggests that Lyon should make the breakthrough at some point.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home for Toulouse is 22% of matches.
- 3/3 defeats at home for Toulouse v the top 6.
- 8 of 10 goals scored by Toulouse at home came 2nd half.
- Opponents have scored first in 7/9 Toulouse home matches.
- Only 2 defeats in 15 for Lyon v PSG and Rennes.
- Lyon have scored and conceded last 4 away with 2 wins and 2 draws.
- 25% of away matches saw at least a goal before halftime.
- Lyon are unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
- 71% of goals scored and 64% of goals conceded by Lyon away came 2nd half.
- This looks a good opportunity for Lyon to record the win so react if Toulouse lead at any stage. They should not really as opponents tend to score first.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
18:00 - Guingamp v Rennes - 2.62 Rennes
- 20th v 7th and the natural inclination would have been to have Rennes as stronger favourites v bottom of the league so let's see if there is a reason why the market cannot really split these 2.
- Only 2 wins for Guingamp all season came away from home. 3 defeats in 4 at home recently.
- Guingamp have been competitive at home v the top 6 insofar as they have scored in 1-3, 2-4 , 0-1, 1-1, 1-1 scorelines. Will they score today v 7th?
- 13 of 17 goals conceded by Guingamp came 2nd half. We may see a defensive first half but a lack of class may tell eventually.
- 11 goals conceded last 1/2 hour so note that if Guingamp lead or it is a draw 60th minute.
- Rennes for their part are in great nick. So much so that I have just had to check out that I wrote the odds down correctly! I did.
- 4 consecutive wins and 4 consecutive clean sheets for Rennes really should spell trouble for Guingamp.
- Rennes have failed to score only once. So if they keep a clean sheet and score as usual, then hey presto, 3 points.
- Rennes have scored in their last 10 away matches.
- 1-2, 2-1, 1-2 for Rennes v bottom 5 away sees them conceding.
- 11 of 14 goals conceded by Rennes away came 2nd half.
- We must acknowledge that the market sees this as too tough to call. On season long form though, we'd be with Rennes. Note though that Guingamp tend to score v the top 6 albeit without winning. That is an angle if they do score today but will Rennes's 4 consecutive clean sheet wins continue today?
20:00 - St Etienne v Marseille - 2.38 St Etienne
- Another match in France and another set of odds suggesting a tough to call match.
- This is 4th v 9th.
- St Etienne remain unbeaten at home. 4 defeats this season came away from home.
- 6 wins in 7 at home sees a very confident St Etienne side.
- Rennes have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
- All St Etienne wins at home have come v 10th and lower. They have only played one of the top 9 at home, a 1-1 draw v 7th.
- Marseille have 3 draws in 4 matches. They have had some shockers away from home.
- On 6 occasions away, they conceded 2/3 goals. 3/3 defeats away v the top 5 - will that continue v a Rennes scoring 2 goals at home?
- 70% of goals conceded away by Marseille came 2nd half.
- We must acknowledge the market is cautious, probably because St Etienne have not done any winning v the top 9 at home so a slight unknown there. If we were to trust their recent 2 goals a game at home as accurate, then we would look at Marseille conceding 2+ goals in defeat v the top 5 and suggest another Rennes 2 goals match and possible win?
- The big concern, as I say, is a lack of Rennes matches v the top 9 at home.
ITALIAN SUPER CUP
17:30 - Juventus v Milan - 1.56 Juventus
- Juventus tend to score 2+ goals in head to heads wins v Milan and there is little to suggest any different today.
- A simplistic angle. I hope the Juventus first XI is shown. It is a good opportunity pre-2019's Seria A return for them to get a run out.
SPANISH COPA DEL REY
18:30 - Atl Madrid v Girona - 1.32 Atl Madrid
- 3 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.1-1 in their first leg match in this Copa.
- The market thinks that this draw sequence will end. Do you? If so, lay any late 0-0 or score draw. Atl Madrid were very efficient in a 1-0 win at the weekend at similar odds. They'll take that today.
- You may want to back 0-0 pre match. A strong 2nd half bias for Atl Madrid if they don't score first half.
19:30 - Sevilla v Atl Bilbao - 1.76 Sevilla
- A 1-3 win for Sevilla in the first leg was followed by a 2-0 Atl Bilbao win in the league so that adds some intrigue to this contest. If away goals are in play, a 0-2 today for Atl Bilbao will still not be enough.
- A match of context therefore. Sevilla can afford a 0-2 defeat and still progress. If Sevilla score, then it is tie over you'd think.
20:30 - Leganes v Real Madrid - 2.18 Real Madrid
- This is another tie where we need to take our cues from the first leg. A 3-0 Real Madrid win should be game over. Leganes must win 3-0 to continue the tie. A Real Madrid away goal will ensure qualification and an insurmountable task for Leganes. Remember that Real Madrid can afford a 2-0 defeat today and still qualify.
ENGLISH FA CUP
19:45 - Southampton v Derby County - 1.67 Southampton
- New manager syndrome for Southampton. What's his feelings on the Cup. Ordinarily, it's been a good exercise backing Premier League teams v English Championship sides.
- An exciting 2-2 saw Southampton lead 0-2 only for 2 quick goals in 3 minutes for Derby. The fact Saints scored 2 goals fits in well with a resurgence in attack in the Premier League.
- 2-2-0-2 goals scored recently by the Saints. They were unable to score v Chelsea in the FA Cup.
- Derby have not beaten a Premier League side in the FA Cup recently. Score draw best scenario. Expect same today.