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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

18:00 - Arsenal v Southampton - 2.20 Arsenal

Arsenal - 15th

  • 6 defeats, a win and a loss last 8 matches. Arteta Revolution is on. He is targeting the English Championship League title next season.
  • 4 consecutive home defeats failing to score in 3 of those.
  • No 0-0's at fulltime at home.
  • Absolutely bossed Burnley on the shots on target, off target and corners tally so signs of recovery.
  • Beat 6th and 20th at home 2-1.

Southampton - 4th

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 loss since 26th September came v Man Utd.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win away.
  • Failed to score only opening match.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • What an optimistic lot those market makers are, inserting Arsenal as favourites against a Southampton failing to score in only 1 match.
  • It has to be a watching brief for Arsenal at the moment. They were so close to a breakthrough v Burnley who they bossed in all statistical areas bar the scoreline.

18:00 - Leeds v Newcastle - 1.75 Leeds

Leeds - 14th

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches came away v Everton.
  • Scored in 6 of their last 7 matches. Hit the post 3 times in the 0-0 v Arsenal.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal at home v the top 15.

Newcastle - 12th

  • 2 losses and now 2 wins last 4 matches. Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not played 14th and lower away.
  • All 6 goals scored away came 2nd half and 5 of those last 15 minutes.

Conclusions

  • Leeds have an obvious goals threat and if only they had a striker like Aubameyang (er, scratch that), a striker with a finishing touch, they'd be putting match to bed. Their standout stat is their shots off target stats. That is their Achilles heel. Notably Leeds have not scored that 2nd goal at home which may trouble them today. If they lead, particularly going into the last 15 mins, lay them.
  • Newcastle tend to score 2nd half away from home.

18:00 - Leicester v Everton - 2.20 Leicester

Leicester - 3rd

  • All wins bar 4 defeats, 3 of which did come at home.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Of the 2 top 9 sides they have played, they have lost 3-0.
  • 3 home wins have come v 13th and lower.

Everton - 7th

  • Win, Loss, Draw, Win latest. Improvement upon a draw and 3 consecutive defeats previously.
  • Subtle hint of goalscoring trouble. Take away the 3 scored against Fulham, and Everton have scored 0-1-1-0-1-1 in other recent matches.
  • Conceded last 5 away matches.
  • Beat 1st away, drew with 2nd at home but lost to 4th away.
  • 6/8 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Everton have a subtle hint of Arsenal-like scoring trouble. Take away Fulham recently and it's 0-1-1-0-1-1 scored. They have made it work in 3/4 recent matches.
  • For me this match lacks strong form lines. Leicester have only played 2 of the top 9 and lost 3-0. Everton currently are a tad unreadable and if we rely on that potential scoring trouble, they could be layable if leading.

20:00 - Fulham v Brighton - 2.50 Brighton

Fulham - 18th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 1-1 v Liverpool latest down more to Liverpool's poor away form.
  • Scored in their last 4 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats have come v 6th-15th.
  • 5 goals conceded at home first 15 minutes.

Brighton - 16th

  • Only 2 wins did come away.
  • A draw and 2 consecutive defeats. Did also draw 1-1 with Liverpool away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats have come v the top 9.
  • Not played 14th or lower away.

Conclusions

  • The market expects a tough match. Both sides have only 2 wins. On seasonal form, Brighton have only tended to lose to the top 9 but have not played 14th or lower away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market so says the stats but these 2 are poor.

20:00 - Liverpool v Tottenham - 1.80 Liverpool

  • I will stick to leaving these high profile matches alone, suffice to say Liverpool have a 100% win record at home and will be glad to be back at Anfield, as they keep dropping points and picking up 1-1 draws away from home.

20:00 - West Ham v Crystal Palace - 2.10 West Ham

West Ham - 6th

  • London Derby. We saw what Palace did v Tottenham. Teams can raise their games in these Derbies, more so if a crowd was present.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 2 wins and a loss v Man Utd last 3 at home.
  • Failed to score only in the first match of the season.
  • Losses at home have come v 8th and 12th.
  • 6/7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Crystal Palace - 11th

  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Win away.
  • Only clean sheet came 1st match.
  • Conceded last 6 away matches.
  • v top 8 away, have lost to Chelsea and beat Man Utd.

Conclusions

  • Formlines can go astray in a London Derby. West Ham are scoring where Palace are conceding. Note that.
  • If West Ham are vulnerable to conceding, it is 2nd half.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Barcelona v Real Sociedad - 1.60 Barcelona

Barcelona - 8th

  • Atalanta, Everton, Man City, Real Madrid....and Barcelona. Sides under performing this season but the 4 mentioned sides have begun some kind of a revival, as has Barca.
  • 3 consecutive home wins, 2 consecutive home clean sheets. It was a bit huff and puff v Levante with a mid-2nd half 1-0 winner.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • Have lost to 2nd and 3rd this season.

Real Sociedad - 1st

  • 6 wins and 3 draws last 9 matches.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Unbeaten away.
  • 9/12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A real test as to whether Barca are on the come back trail. 3 consecutive wins but yet to beat a top 3 side this season. Lost at home to 3rd. Barca have scored in their last 6 at home so note that.
  • Sociedad are unbeaten away and must be respected but they are collecting draws now which might make them layable if leading today. They score a lot 2nd half.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

17:30 - Schalke v Freiburg - 2.4 Freiburg

Schalke - 18th

  • No win.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played 14th or lower at home.

Freiburg - 14th

  • 2 draws and a win last 3 matches.
  • Only 2 wins came 1st and last matches.
  • No win in 4 away matches.
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3/4 defeats came v the top 4.
  • Not played 12th or lower away.
  • 8/11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • These 2 are in poor form. I do note that all bar 1 of Freiburg's losses came v the top 4. Significant form?
  • The stats point to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Both sides are conceding. Both teams to score?

19:30 - Arminia Bielefeld v Augsburg - 2.60 Augsburg

  • I will leave this to the inplay stats. As I said in the last Arminia Bielefeld match, it is tough to evaluate matches where a newly promoted side meets a new side for the first time. And when the market agrees - with a 2.6 the favourite quote - I will take the hint.

19:30 - Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg - 1.33 Bayern

Bayern - 2nd

  • One of these 2 is unbeaten....and it's not Bayern.
  • 3 score draws in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home score draws.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored and conceded last 6.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3-3 and 2-3 win v the top 5 so far.

Wolfsburg - 4th

  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7/8 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Not played the top 7 away but score draws in 4/5 other away matches.
  • 5/7 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • This is a test for both of these sides who seem to like score drawing of late. It is certainly a tester for the Wolf, score drawing in all bar 1 away match and that is without yet meeting the top 7 away so credentials will be tested.
  • Bayern have score in every match.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market says the patterns.

19:30 - Hoffenheim v Leipzig - 1.61 Leipzig

Hoffenheim - 12th

  • Scored and conceded in 10/11 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Scored 2+ goals last 2 home matches.
  • v the top 9, only 1 win v Bayern Munich. Scored and conceded in all bar 1 of those matches.
  • 7/11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Leipzig - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win recently.
  • A loss and 2 consecutive score draws away.
  • Failed to score only in that defeat.
  • 100% wins v 10th and lower, albeit all bar 1 has come at home. Not played 11th or lower away.

Conclusions

  • Leipzig are yet to play 11th or lower away but are beating them easily at home. They play 12th today, a home side scoring and conceding v the top 9 but winning only 1, oddly enough a hugely surprising 4-1 win v Bayern Munich.
  • Hoffenheim do score and concede so note that particularly if they lead.

19:30 - Koln v Leverkusen - 1.67 Leverkusen

Koln - 15th

  • 2 wins and a draw latest, the wins came away. One was eyecatching v Dortmund.
  • In 5/6 home matches, have conceded 2+ goals.
  • Only clean sheet came last match.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Conceded 2 goals at home v the top 4 so far.
  • 9/13 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Leverkusen - 1st

  • Unbeaten this season. 7 wins and a draw last 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 4/4 wins v the bottom 5 - playing the last of those today.

Conclusions

  • Koln have their work cut out unless they can do another Dortmund-win miracle today. Leverkusen have franked form v the bottom 5 away, 100% win record.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:30 - Juventus v Atalanta - 1.85 Juventus

Juventus - 4th

  • A couple of Ronaldo penalties needed to see off Genoa but it was such a one-sided match.
  • Unbeaten.
  • Turning 1-1 draws into wins now. 4 recent 1-1 draws becomes 2 consecutive wins, conceding 1 goal.
  • 4 wins and a 1-1 at home.
  • 3/3 score draws v 6th-9th inclusive.
  • All 5 2nd half goals have come last 15 minutes of matches.

Atalanta - 8th

  • Entitled to beat Fiorentina with ease. But that comes after a run of 3 defeats, 2 draws and a win v bottom of the league. Can Atalanta be trusted yet?
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 2 losses and a 1-1 home and away v the top 7.
  • 8/11 goals scored away came 1st half.
  • 7/8 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Atalanta are one of a band of teams hugely and negatively impacted by the Champions League, domestic league schedule. It was a nice pipe opener to meet a Fiorentina who have trouble even scoring and get back on song with a 3-0. But this will be a different proposition. Juventus remain unbeaten and are scoring 2 goals again, turning 1-1 into wins. They score a lot last 15 minutes so remember that if 1-1 or if losing.
  • The jury is still out on Atalanta after their woeful recent run but I would be cautiously optimistic in Juve getting a result.

19:45 - Genoa v AC Milan - 1.40 AC Milan

Genoa - 19th

  • Kept Juventus honest at 1-1 until 2 late penalty concessions but really were outclassed, as they may be today.
  • Only win came 1st match.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded last 8 matches.
  • 3/3 defeats at home v the top 6.
  • 4 goals conceded last 15 minutes of home matches.

AC Milan - 1st

  • One of a handful of sides still unbeaten. And only just. 2-0 down v Parma they were an excellent trading option in getting back to 2-2 thanks to the left back!! No Ibrahimovic - well do check team news. His addition spells Sayonara for Genoa.
  • 5/5 away wins scoring 2+ goals. scored 2+ goals in every match (something I hope you remembered in that Parma match?).
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3/3 wins to nil v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • We expect an AC Milan win, scoring 2 goals and we expect an AC Milan to wriggle out of even a 2-0 deficit should that arise today. Confidence boosted if Ibrahimovic is on the team sheet.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on AC Milan, although they kept Juventus from scoring first half last match.
  • Likely a 0-2, 1-3, 0-3 scoreline if formlines are maintained.

19:45 - Inter Milan v Napoli - 2.10 Inter Milan

  • This match I'm afraid enters the derby(ish) category which I won't research. 2 monster Seria A sides clash. In-play stats for these matches.

19:45 - Parma v Cagliari - 2.25 Parma

Parma - 15th

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches came v Roma.
  • Led 0-2 away at AC Milan last match but that ended a 2-2. A good trading match.
  • 3 consecutive home draws, 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • Only home loss came v 3rd.

Cagliari - 11th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • No win in 4 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw last 3 away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • All 3 wins and a 2-2 came v 14th and lower, and in 3 of those matches, both teams scored 2 goals at least.
  • 9/14 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Parma's 0-2 lead v AC Milan deserves respect, given it came away from home. And they have only lose v Roma recently. But are on a 2 match 0-0 home sequence which I expect to end today.
  • I can make an argument for both sides today given that Cagliari have 3 wins and a 2-2 v 14th and lower and that Parma have just that one loss in 7 matches.

19:45 - Fiorentina v Sassuolo - 2.30 Fiorentina

Fiorentina - 17th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • No win in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 3/4 home matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 4 at home.
  • Not played the top 9 at home and have lost away to top 9 teams.
  • 67% of goals scored and conceded came away.

Sassuolo - 5th

  • Only 1 loss came v Inter Milan.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • 4-1-4-3-4- goals scored home and away v 12th and lower.
  • 9/12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Another absolute mystery to me why Fiorentina are favourite? I must respect the market as they do get it right a lot, but look at Sassuolo. Only 1 loss, scoring 3+ goals v 12th and lower, 5 clean sheets in 6 matches. What's not to like?
  • The question to answer is why the market thinks Fiorentina, a side failing to score in 5 of their last 6 matches, is favourite?

19:45 - Spezia v Bologna - 2.05 Bologna

Spezia - 16th

  • Only 2 wins came away.
  • 2 draws and 2 defeats last 4 matches.
  • v 10th to 15th away, Spezia are unbeaten!! Not played them at home though.

Bologna - 12th

  • No draw.
  • 2 wins, then 2 losses last 4 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • All 4 wins came v 11th and lower but 3 of those wins came at home.
  • Not played 15th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw if Bologna continue to avoid the draw?
  • Spezia are unbeaten v 10th to 15th away but Bologna have not played 15th and lower away so while we have an angle from Spezia, we have nothing to gauge Bologna by.

19:45 - Verona v Sampdoria - 2.15 Verona

Verona - 7th

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Excellent win away at Lazio latest.
  • Excellent win away v Atalanta too!
  • Only 1 home loss v 5th.

Sampdoria - 13th

  • 4 defeats and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 9/11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Verona are in rare old form and must be wanting to play away, having recently beaten Atalanta and Lazio away. On seasonal form, Verona will feel confident at home, particularly playing a leaky Samp, with just the one clean sheet.

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

17:00 - Haugesund v Bodo/Glimt - 1.67  Bodo/Glimt

  • it could be remiss of me to not mention Bodo/Glimt who have already wrapped up the title. But this is not stopping them scoring 2+ goals a game and usually before halftime. Please be aware of this stat. Maybe 0-2, 1-2 in the halftime market for you speculators?