A great ending to the Twitter chat yesterday as I put forward a back of St Mirren 0-1 down with 5 minutes left at odds of 12.5. They won 2-1. Ker ching! The in-play stats were overwhelming for St. Mirren and a 0-1 deficit was a real shock. I kept the faith. I hope you did too.
I hope to be on Twitter tonight @drtclub. No promises though as I am meeting a friend this evening. It is first leg Champions League. I like Celtic who have beaten Astana this time last year 2-1 at home so we have some very recent form. I like Zenit too. They look like a reliable team. Real Madrid and Barcelona should see more goals (if Barcelona can be bothered with this meaningless cup).
19:45 - Basaksehir v Sevilla - 2.28 Sevilla
- Basaksehir are the new kids on the block in Turkey so relative unknowns to the majority of fellow European teams.
- Basaksehir scored 5 goals in 2 matches against Club Brugge.
- Sevilla are a rare side. They ALWAYS take the Europa League seriously.There are here now in the Champions League. Recent losses came v Juventus and Leicester City in this competition.
- This is a 2-legged affair so away goals will impact tactics.
19:45 - Olympiakos v Rijeka - 1.59 Olympiakos
- Rijeka from Croatia are new to the Champions League. The New Saints and Red Bull could not trouble Rijeka.
- Olympiakos are Champions League regulars. Last season they played the likes of Dinamo Zagreb, Arsenal, Hapoel Be'er Sheva and Partizan.
- 0-2-0-0-2 goals scored by Olympiakos at home recently. I am not convinced that Oly are quite what they were. The market though thinks Rijeka are out of their depth.
19:45 - Celtic v FC Astana - 1.46 Celtic
- 4 consecutive clean sheets for Celtic v Linfield and Rosenborg.Celtic played the likes of Mgladbach and Barcelona last year.
- Kazak side Astana are an unknown quantity. Ask Rangers about taking an apparent weaker side for granted (knocked out by a Luxembourg side!).
- Celtic rather inevitably lost to Mgladbach and Barcelona at home and actually played Astana in August 2016 and won 2-1 at home.
- We should expect Celtic to cope with Astana today.
19:45 - Hapoel Beer Sheva v NK Maribor - 1.61 Hapoel
- Israel v Slovenia in this Champions League first leg.
- Hapoel Be'er Sheva have a 100% record at home in the Champions League.3-1-2-2-2 goals scored.
- 1-1-0-1 conceded by NK without losing lately in the Champions League.
- I do like Beer Sheva. They look accomplished at home and I will oppose any NK lead.
19:45 - Napoli v Nice - 1.31 Napoli
- Napoli were put in their place by Real Madrid in the Champions League last year. The teams they played prior to Real Madrid were much of a muchness.
- Napoli lost to Besiktas, drew with Dynamo Kiev, and lost to Real Madrid at home last 3 Champions League matches.
- Nice are new to the Champions League, a reward for a good season last year domestically.
- 1-1 and 2-2 draws v Ajax.
- The market expects Napoli to dominate tonight.
17:00 - Utrecht v Zenit St Petersburg - 1.73 Zenit
- I like Zenit. They look to be like a reliable team, at least so far in the Russian Premier League.
- Only 4 recent Europa League matches, for Utrecht, 3 were draws, 2 were 0-0's.
- Zenit are yet to draw in recent Europa League matches.
- Zenit got past Anderlecht and Bnei Yehuda 0-2 away win and 1-0 home loss.
- Zenit were professional enough but I know little to nothing about Bnei Yehuda.
- I would lay Utrecht if Utrecht scored first.
19:45 - Sheff Wed v Sunderland - 2.22 Sheff Wed
- Sunderland newly relegated. 1-1 and 1-3 Sunderland this season. The win over Norwich may be a suggestion that Sunderland has a relatively strong side from Championship standards.
- 1-0 Sheff Wed loss and 1-1 draw v QPR.
- Sheffield Wed have drawn 6/9 home matches against relegated teams.
- Top-six relegated teams have had -2.5 goals in 55% of away matches against bottom-half teams since 2012-13.
- No head to heads since 2007 of course and tough to find an angle BUT Can we trust Sunderland to score if they fall behind (they have scored and conceded without losing this season).
19:45 - Norwich v QPR - 1.81 Norwich
- QPR win, Norwich win last 2 head to heads.
- Norwich have won the first half in 8/10 home matches against top-half teams while QPR have conceded first in 12/18 away matches.
- QPR have lost 7/10 away matches.
- AN 88th minute goal and an own goal. Are Norwich blunt in attack? 1-1 and 1-3 losses for Norwich.
- QPR beat Reading 2-0 and drew 1-1 away at Sheff Wed.
- I am slightly concerned by Norwich who seem a little goal shy. I am fully aware that coming to conclusions after 2 matches is dangerous.
SPANISH SUPER CUP
22:00 - Real Madrid v Barcelona - 2.42 Real Madrid
- 0-0 at halftime when these 2 are playing is a gift from the betting gods that you must exploit. I put forward both teams to score or both teams to score and one team to score at least 2 goals in the first leg.
- 1-3 to Real Madrid from the first leg suggests Barcelona will ramp it up and go for the 0-2. I am not sure if there is an away goals rule in place as this is a 2 legged Super Cup. Expect goals again today. I am not sure of any one team's extreme need to win this glorified friendly though.