Another quiet day today. Friday sees a return to league football. I am interested in Thiem's match. I think Thiem has the form in the head to heads despite ironically being in poor recent form to Busta cap in Busta's ass. Australia should not lose to Honduras but at 9am this is outside of most people's reach.

09:00 - Australia v Honduras - 1.63 Honduras

• Strewth mate, it's early.
• It is so difficult to gauge these 2 teams from different FIFA zones.
• Australia will be delighted with a 0-0 away at Honduras but will be wary as I think the away goal in inplay here in this 2nd leg.
• In World Cup qualifying Asia, Australia only lost to Japan. At home they were unbeaten scoring 2+ goals in 8/10 matches.
• Honduras scored and conceded in 6/7 world cup qualifiers concacaf and were unbeaten last 5.
• Only 1 win in 9 aways for Honduras suggests they may struggle on their travels, but what about against Asian opposition?
• The market expects Australia not to lose but realistically I cannot call this match.
• I do think home advantage may tip things in the Aussies' favour and would have to lay Honduras should they lead. With away goals rule in play, the Aussies would have to score 2 goals in reply.

ATP TENNIS - LONDON

14:00 - Grigor Dimitrov v David Goffin - 1.59 Dimitrov

• 6th v 8th in the rankings.
• 6-0 Dimitrov in head to heads ended as the Goff won in 3 sets in Rotterdam in 2017.
• That was the 3rd match in 4 head to heads in which both players won a set.
• I did not play these players' first matches in London. There were too many ???
• Dimitrov beat Thiem in 3 sets. This was a Thiem better ranked but in poor recent form.
• Nadal beat Goffin in 3 sets, 2 tie breakers first 2 sets. And as I said, this may be a slightly crocked Nadal (he withdrew from Paris) so the Goff's proximity to him has to be accounted for.
• Semis, quarters, finals and 2nd round Paris for Grigor. Quarters in Antwerp, semi finals in Basel and 2nd round Paris for Goffin.
• Goffin for me is hard to read fellow top 10 players.
• Dimitrov was strong favourite v Thiem but took 3 sets.
• Throughout the season, Goffin has had the ability to fight back from a set down. I would hope for that today and lay the first set winner today in what could reasonably be another 3 setter.

20:00 - Pablo Carreno Busta v Dominic Thiem - 1.34 Thiem

• Busta has busted into the top 10. Thiem is ranked 4th and lost to worst ranked Dimitrov last match.
• 4 most recent head to heads have all gone to Thiem. Note that in 3 of the last 4 head to heads, both players won a set at least.
• Thiem has been around these odds in the last 4 head to heads and won them all. Is that a good enough angle in?
• 6 losses in 7 for Busta sees him in poor form coming into his first ATP Tour Finals match.
• Theim himself has a run of 7 losses in 9 matches so as I pointed out in the Dimi game, he is in poor form.
• Head to heads are emphatic. Thiem simply wins when meeting Busta Rhymes at around 1.34 odds. Enough to side with Thiem today even if Busta wins the first set?