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Little to get our teeth into today. Largely Asian leagues. I chose China as it is amply covered at www.soccerstats.com. Friday onwards will more than make up for this apparent quiet day.

CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE

11:00 - Shanghai East Asia v Guangzhou R&F - 1.36 Shanghai

  • 1-1, 1-2 Guang, 2-5 Shanghai in the last 3 head to heads.

Shanghai East Asia (3rd)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 8 home matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 3 home matches.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 2+ goals scored at home v 7th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Guangzhou R &F (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets and failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No win in 4 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches away v top 11.
  • 2-2 and 4-5 win away v 1st and 4th.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score today looks a good starting point. I would note Guangzhou's positive unbeaten results away v the top 4. Their recent form though suggests they will not win.
  • An argument for Shanghai to score 2 goals at least but the worry is that they lost to near bottom side Dalian recently without actually scoring.
  • The value? Is in laying Shanghai at such short odds IF you discount R & F's recent poor form and focus on their away form v top 4.
  • Lay any late 0-0 here.

12:35 - Tianjin Quanjian v Tianjin Teda - 2.26 Tianjin Quanjian

  • Local derby? My Chinese geography is not the best.
  • 3-0 Q, 4-1 Ted, 3-2 Ted. Teda have the better of the last 2 head to heads in goal-laden matches.

Tianjin Quanjian (8th)

  • 6 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 7.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 matches and last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • A winning run v 7th, 9th and 10th at home. Lost 3-2 to Ted away this season.

Tianjin Teda (6th)

  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 10 matches and in 5 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side away.
  • 3 away wins v 10th, 11th and 14th.

Conclusions

  • This looks like a local derby so form may be thrown out of the window.
  • Neither side's 0-0 tells us to lay any late 0-0 or lay any 0-0 appearing 2nd half.
  • Expectation is for 3+ goals today. I would look to back 3-2/2-3 from a trading angle given the hope Teda up their game for the derby and continue to avoid draws.

12:35 - Jiangsu Suning v Chongqing Lifan - 1.58 Jiangsu

  • 1-2 Chong, 1-2 Jiang, 4-1 Chong in the last 3 head to heads. Another set of head to heads with lots of goals.

Jiangsu Suning (5th)

  • Only 5 defeats.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches since 6th April.
  • No defeat in 7 home matches.
  • Only home loss v 1st in the league.
  • 1-0 and 3-1 at home v 14th and 16th.

Chongqing Lifan (15th)

  • Only 4 wins contrasts with only 5 defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches and last 5 away matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Losses away to 2nd, 3rd and 4th, did beat 5th 1-2.

Conclusions

  • Lifan did beat 5th away but that was only 1 of only 4 wins. On that basis, we are with the market and Jiangsu not to lose. They did beat 2 of the bottom 3 played at home. They only lost to 1st in the league.

12:35 - Shandong Luneng v Hebei CFFC - 1.58 Shandong

  • 5-4, 1-2 and 2-3 Shandong in the last 3 head to heads.

Shandong Luneng (2nd)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • No defeat in 12 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only loss at home v .....16th!
  • Tend to score 2+ goals at home.

Hebei (11th)

  • Only 5 wins. Did win their last home match.
  • No win in 3 away.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • Based on Hebei's form v top 7, we would not expect them to win today. A simple angle v a Shandong side in solid unbeaten form, albeit scoring and conceding.
  • So if Shandong concede, do not expect them to lose.

12:35 - Beijing Renhe v Changchun Yatai - 2.36 Beijing

  • 2-2 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Beijing Renhe (12th)

  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • Not played 9th-13th at home.
  • 2 home losses v 3rd and 7th.

Changchun (10th)

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 6 away.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • Wins exclusively v 13th and lower. 1-1 v Beijing earlier this season.

Conclusions

  • Changchun may have a chance here. They tend to remain unbeaten v lesser lights.
  • Then there is an argument for Beijing as well, hence the....2.36 the favourite quote.

13:00 - Henan v Guangzhou FC - 1.31 Guangzhou

  • 5 consecutive Guangzhou wins in head to heads.

Henan (13th)

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats v the top 5. 2-1 or 1-0 defeats so keeping it tight.

Guangzhou FC (4th)

  • 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Lost away to 10th, 12th and 14th.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • What is with Guangzhou FC and teams 10th and lower away? 3/3 defeats. They meet another today who tend to lose 1-0 or 2-1 v top 5.
  • The value is in laying Guangzhou at such short odds. If they struggle again v 10th and lower away and IF Henan continue to keep tight matches v top 5, we might get some action.
  • The market though expects another 2 goals at least from Guangzhou.

13:00 - Shanghai Shenhua v Guizhou HF Zhicheng - 1.61 Shanghai

  • Shanghai lost the last time Guizhou visited.

Shanghai Shenhua (7th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 home loss v 3rd.
  • Wins v bottom 3 were 1-0, 2-1, 0-1. Tight.

Guizhou (16th)

  • Bottom of the league.
  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 13 and last 9 away.
  • Intriguingly beat 2nd away but losses v 1st, 4th, 5th and 6th saw them conceding 3+ goals.

Conclusions

  • Realistically Guizhou should be conceding 3+ goals today. Their win v 2nd away is a stickler. Shanghai tend to concede and let's hope they concede first to afford us an angle - to lay Guizhou if Guizhou score first.
  • Do expect Guizhou to concede - only one clean sheet all season.
  • Do note, yet again in China, we have a strong favourite limping over the line v bottom sides. 1-0, 2-1, 0-1.

UEFA SUPER CUP

20:00 - Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid - 2.62 Real Madrid

  • Post Ronaldo Real Madrid will be tough to read here. The market agrees with me. Domestic Super Cups have been rather readable. Barcelona v Sevilla for example saw Sevilla score first and Barcelona reply.
  • This is best left to the in-play stats.