Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I would have loved to have done a live chat yesterday but sometimes the negative time difference makes that not possible. A Watford red card triggered 2-goal- Palace. I hope you noted that. Dortmund seem to have taken Ritalin. Suddenly they are all calm, winning 0-2, not conceding a squillion goals and then having to out-score opponents. Burnley scored their single goal but kept Stoke out. Wolfsburg - a score draw....what else?
Ross County led a 2 goal lead slip. Did you lay them at 1-0 and 2-0 given the research? I am keen to do a live chat this evening so will top up on strong coffee.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Swansea v Man City - 1.26 Man City

  • The Swans have scored in each of the last 8 matches and given City's recent habits, they may do so again.

Swansea

  • Only 3 wins all season. 1-0 latest v a poor West Brom. This will have Man City quivering in their boots....not.
  • Only scored 2 goals once at home and that ended in a win.
  • 5 over 2.5 goals matches only v Man Utd, Leicester, Arsenal and Watford....teams renowned for goals. So watch out tonight.
  • 4 1-0 losses and 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side.
  • 5 goals conceded last 15 mins of home matches.

Man City

  • All wins bar a draw.
  • 4 consecutive 2-1 wins.
  • 2 consecutive 1-2 away wins.
  • Scored in all matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 9 matches.
  • 2-3 v 18th and 2-1 v 19th so may be made to battle.

Conclusions

  • This could be another over 2.5 goals match for Swansea to add to their 4.
  • What chance another 1-2? It may be simpler this evening for City. Certainly Swansea are gettable if leading.
  • Swansea have conceded 5 goals last 15 mins of home matches so that is perfect for Raheem Sterling!

19:45 - Southampton v Leicester - 2.12 Southampton

  • 0-0 and 3-0 Southampton in the last 2 head to heads.

Southampton (11th)

  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 loss in 5 home matches.
  • Only 4 wins all season.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 9 team 0-1 0-1 1-1 v top 6 at home.

Leicester (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 8 matches now without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away albeit 7 draws.
  • Only lost to top 6 this season.

Conclusions

  • For me, Leicester's form is more compelling. Southampton are on a decent run but contextually, they have not beaten a top 9 home. That said, losing only 0-1, 0-1 v 2nd and 4th suggests a defensive bent.
  • But they lost 0-2 to a team like Watford, known for their scoring. And I would have to lump Leicester in with Watford here.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • With 2 consecutive 1-1 draws, I would be keener to lay Southampton if Southampton score first.
  • Leicester, remember, have lost only to the top 6 this season. At their best they win 0-2 or 1-2. Saints remember have only 4 wins all season so are more likely NOT to win.

19:45 - Newcastle v Everton - 2.44 Newcastle

  • 2 new managers makes this a tough match to research. I suppose we can do Newcastle but Everton are now under Big Sam so we should only really focus on his matches.

Newcastle (16th)

  • 6 losses and a 2-2 draw last 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 4-3-2-3-3 goals conceded recently. It's getting bad if West Brom are scoring 2 goals against you!
  • No 0-0.
  • No win v top 14 teams.

Everton

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 2-0 v Huddersfield and 1-1 v Liverpool for Big Sam so far.

Conclusions

  • Had it been David Unsworth in charge of Everton I would have fancied them to score 2+ goals today.
  • Big Sam is built on defence generally in his managerial career.
  • Newcastle are conceding for fun. Rafa surely must address this.
  • A tough match to read I'm afraid but I would have to favour Everton strictly if we note Newcastle have no win v top 14 teams.

20:00 - Tottenham v Brighton - 1.25 Tottenham

  • No recent head to heads.

Tottenham (7th)

  • Only 2 wins in 7.
  • Emphatic at home v Stoke when similar odds.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored only 1 goal in 5 at home this season so can blow hot and cold.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not played 6th-13th at home.
  • 7 wins and 2 draws home and away v 10th and lower.
  • 9 goals scored at home 46th-75th minutes.

Brighton (13th)

  • 3 losses in 4.
  • Only 4 wins.
  • Failed to score in 3 of last 4.
  • Not beaten a top 15 side.
  • Failed to score v top 12 away.

Conclusions

  • At their worst, Spurs score 1 goal at home and the fans get all nervous. At their best they put 5 past Stoke. There are no head to heads to work with as there was with Stoke.
  • The form tells us Brighton have trouble even scoring v top 12 away and home and away have yet to beat a top 15 side. That should be enough for a Tottenham failing to score in only 3 matches.
  • Tottenham are quick out of the blocks 2nd half at home so note that from a goal scoring perspective.
  • Worst case a draw for Spurs or a niggly 1-0.

20:00 - Man Utd v Bournemouth - 1.27 Man Utd

  • 1-3 United and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Man Utd (2nd)

  • A must win for Man Utd as they are realistically the only challengers to Man City.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches.
  • 100% win record at home ended by Man City.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • No home draw.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Twice as many 2nd half goals scored as first at home.
  • Scored first in 6/8 at home.

Bournemouth (14th)

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Unbeaten in 4 away.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side.
  • All defeats v top 7.
  • Yet to play top 5 away though.

Conclusions

  • United have followed every defeat this season with a win.
  • Bournemouth simply do not beat top 12 sides, that is what the form says. Further, they lose v top 7 teams, albeit they are yet to play the top 5 away.
  • United should be eyeing the win this evening. Do note that they tend to score twice as many 2nd half as first half so factor that in if 0-0 at halftime.

20:00 - Liverpool v West Brom - 1.24 Liverpool

  • 2-1 Liverpool and 0-1 Liverpool in the last head to heads.

Liverpool

  • Only 2 defeats came away.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 home draws. A sequence they would be keen to see end.
  • Failed to score only in those defeats.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home and at halftime at home.
  • Only played one of the bottom 8 at home, a 1-0 win v Brighton.
  • 5 clean sheets at home and not conceded a 2nd goal.

West Brom (18th)

  • New manager syndrome may elicit a sudden change in fortune. Alan Par(tridge)dew is at the helm.
  • Only 2 West Brom wins were 1st 2 matches of season.
  • Only 1 over2.5 goal match away under Pulis.
  • 1-1 draws away v Tottenham and Leicester. Note that these 2 are known for goals.

Conclusions

  • All form this season for West Brom is under the old manager. There is always a niggle that the new manager can engineer a positive result immediately. (Look at the impact Woy has made at Palace!)
  • Strictly on form, I see 2 Liverpool score draws at home which I expect to end and I would be laying any late 1-1.
  • Liverpool remain unbeaten at home and at halftime at home and have not concede 2 goals in a game. That should continue today.
  • I note West Brom's 1-1's away v Tottenham and Leicester which I suggest would be their ideal results today against a free-scoring Liverpool.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

17:30 - Hoffenheim v Stuttgart - 1.93 Hoffenheim

  • 5 consecutive head to heads with the Hoff scoring 2 goals ended last match 5-1 to Stuttgart.

Hoff (8th)

  • Become inconsistent as I mentioned last match.
  • Only 1 loss at home despite only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score only in their last 2 away matches.
  • Have scored in their last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 1-0 leads at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match v 5th-15th inclusive.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Stuttgart (14th)

  • All 5 wins came at home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 9 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Failed to score a 2nd goal away.
  • Lost all bar 1 away.

Conclusions

  • The Hoff are as reliable as an Arthur Daley/Derek Trotter partnership but in Stuttgart they have an opportunity to get back on track.
  • Stuttgart cannot score that 2nd goal away, lose all bar 1 draw, and Hoff have, despite poor recent form, lost only 1 match at home.
  • A slight concern is the Hoff's scoring and conceding pattern v 5th-15th inclusive home and away, and of course their recent inconsistency.
  • At their best I see a 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 kind of result. Stuttgart regularly concede 2+ goals away.

19:30 - Bayern Munich v FC Koln - 1.09 Bayern

  • 1-1 the last time Koln visited!

Bayern

  • 2 losses came away.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • 2+ goals scored at home.
  • 6 2-0 scorelines at halftime at home.
  • Not played bottom 3 yet.

Koln

  • No win.
  • Scored 2 and 3 goals last 2 games without winning.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2-2 v 3rd in league away.

Conclusions

  • Top v Bottom and Koln may have to wait for that first win. They have scored 5 goals in 2 matches without winning.
  • Bayern are expected to score 2 goals minimum today. I would back 2-0 halftime scoreline if 0-0 after 20 mins.

19:30 - Leverkusen v Werder Bremen - 1.51 Leverkusen

  • 3 consecutive Werder wins ended with a 1-1 last head to head. Both teams scored in those 4 matches.

Leverkusen (7th)

  • Unbeaten in 10 matches.
  • 3 score draws in 4 at home.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Clear home form. Score draws v 11th and higher, wins, scoring 2+ goals, v 13th and lower.

Werder Bremen (17th)

  • The enigma that is WB.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches now is a sudden improvement  given those are the only wins this season.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 6 matches which is the usual for WB.
  • Have lost all bar 1 v top 9 teams home and away. They beat Dortmund but to be honest my Sunday league side, with 5 hungover players, could beat Dortmund. That form is suspect.
  • Conceded 2 goals in all matches home and away v top 6 if we ignore the Dortmund win.

Conclusions

  • Werder continue to be a shadow of their usual readable selves. 3 wins in 4 now is eyecatching. I will ignore the Dortmund win as Dortmund have been dire in defence.
  • I am more drawn to the concession of 2 goals v top 6 and playing 7th that may continue today. Leverkusen are in great form, have scored in every match, and clearly win, scoring 2+ goals v 13th and lower.
  • That is how the form should pan out.
  • The niggle is the unreadable Werder who are suddenly winning, where before they could not.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in the hope that the Werder halftime pattern continues.

19:30 - Hertha Berlin v Hannover - 2.04 Hertha

Hertha Berlin (12th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches, 2 came away.
  • 3 losses in 4 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • All losses at home v top 6.
  • Only lost one match v 7th and lower.

Hannover (10th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 3 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 1-1 draws away v 11th and 13th.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I see a score draw on the horizon today. Hertha score draws away v 8th-13th inclusive. Hannover score draws v 11th and 13th.
  • Naturally both teams to score will appeal.
  • Strong 2nd half goals pattern Hannover if 0-0 at halftime.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Celtic v Hamilton - 1.15 Celtic

  • Rather inevitably, Celtic tend to win head to heads home and away.

Celtic

  • Still unbeaten. I missed a trick last match v Hibs as in head to heads Hibs had scored 2 goals in 2 matches v Celtic. 0-2 Celtic became 2-2!
  • Conceded in 5 home matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Have one 0-1 loss at halftime at home.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hamilton

  • Only 1 loss in 7 came at home v St Johnstone last match.
  • 2 away wins v Dundee and Rangers may give Celtic something to think about.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 away.
  • 11 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Celtic have had 2 1-1 scorelines at home v 2 teams above Hamilton in the league. An emphatic 1-4 win away though suggests an easy evening.
  • Do note the Hamilton 2nd half patterns. In contrast to Celtic leading in 5 home matches at halftime.
  • Celtic are conceding at home so note that. Our only hope for a trading angle is for Diddy David Hamilton to score first. I would back Celtic in that case.
  • If Hamilton score first and early first half, I would lay them in the halftime market.

19:45 - Hibernian v Rangers - 2.4 Rangers

  • 3 consecutive 3-2 Hibs wins in head to heads.

Hibs (4th)

  • Only 3 losses.
  • 2 score draws in 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime, none at fulltime.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Only 1 home win v top 9 teams.
  • 2-2 home and away v 1st and 2-3 win away v 2nd.

Rangers (2nd)

  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • 3 2-1 results in 4 matches, 2 wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 6 wins, a draw and a loss away.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • All wins away v top 10.

Conclusions

  • I neglected the Hibs head to heads v Celtic (scoring 2 goals) and at 0-2 down, Hibs drew 2-2.
  • I will not do that here! If Rangers lead 0-2, lay them!
  • Speculatively back 3-2 and 2-3. The odds will be big enough and tradable should we get the expected both teams scoring.
  • On form, Rangers should not be losing today despite the amazing head to heads.
  • Watch out for a 0-0 at halftime and take it on 2nd half.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Groningen v PSV - 1.43 PSV

  • 0-0 and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Groningen (12th)

  • Only 1 loss in 4 was v Feyenoord.
  • 4-0-3-2 scored recently.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Losses v 5th and 14th at home but a draw with inform AZ, wins v 6th and 7th and a 3-3 v reasonable Heerenveen is good enough home form.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

PSV (1st)

  • All wins bar 2 defeats = no draws.
  • Failed to score only in defeat.
  • Conceded in all bar 1 away match.
  • Emphatic wins home and away v teams 10th and lower.
  • Scored first in 6/8 away.

Conclusions

  • 2 draws in head to heads suggests Groningen like meeting PSV. But only 2 clean sheets for them this season means any draw will be a score draw.
  • PSV are in winning form v teams 10th and lower, and tend to be emphatic. They are conceding away from home so a hope Groningen score first so we get a nice trading angle.
  • Lay any late 0-0/ draw.
  • Any 0-0 at halftime can be taken on in the second half.

17:30 - Vitesse v Willem II - 1.67 Vitesse

  • 1-4 Vitesse and 0-2 Willem II in the last 2 head to heads.

Vitesse (7th)

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • Only 4 defeats and losing to the likes of inform AZ, PSV and Feyenoord.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only home losses v top 2.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Willem II (14th)

  • 3 score draws in 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • 4-0-3-3 conceded away recently.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • All defeats bar 1 home and away v top 13 teams.

Conclusions

  • On form, Vitesse should be eyeing a win, despite possibly conceding today. Willem II have been very generous, conceding 10 goals in 4 aways so will give Vitesse chances.
  • Vitesse only tend to lose to teams in very good form this season. Indeed at home they have only lost to the top 2.
  • Ideally, we expect a home win but note Vitesse have a poor conversion rate at home.

19:45 - Feyenoord v Heerenveen - 1.41 Feyenoord

  • 1-2 Heerenveen, 2-2. 1-2 Feyenoord in the last 2 competitive head to heads.

Feyenoord (5th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Unbeaten in 5.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Not played 8th-12th at home but beaten 10th, 11th, 12th away.
  • Only 3 home wins.

Heerenveen (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Beat PSV at home but have lost at home to 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th and play away v 5th.
  • Pretty good away v 8th and lower with 4 wins.

Conclusions

  • It is a roundabout argument for Feyenoord today. They have beaten 10th, 11th and 12th away from home. They play 9th today WITH home advantage.
  • Ditto Heerenveen who have lost, WITH home advantage to 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th and they play 5th AWAY from home today.
  • I like Heerenveen's form v 8th and lower and have exploited that for profit today but the fact is that they tend to lose v top 7.
  • I think Heerenveen have a goal in them. Feyenoord have only 3 home wins so are not the strongest 1.41 shots I have ever seen.

19:45 - ADO Den Haag v Roda JC - 1.76 ADO

  • 1-1, 2-2, 1-1, 4-1 ADO recent head to heads.

ADO (8th)

  • Only 2 draws were score draws.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 home wins v 10th and 17th.
  • Only 5 wins v 13th and lower.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Opponents have scored first in 7/8 at home.

Roda (18th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 7 losses in 8 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 and last 8 away.
  • No away draw.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All losses v 15th and higher away.

Conclusions

  • It is ADO by default really. Roda tend to lose away v top 15, conceding 2goals at least.
  • This is a rather limited ADO side though with only 2 wins at home but they have a 100% win record v 13th and lower.