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UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

20:00 - Atalanta v Paris St Germain - 2.04 PSG

  • No head to heads between these 2 sides.
  • This is being played in a neutral venue so no home advantage.
  • PSG's last 2 losses in the Champions League came at the hands of Manchester United and Dortmund.
  • PSG have scored in every Champions League as far back as soccerway.com's records go (December 2017).
  • A Jekyll and Hyde side, this Atalanta. Win and Loss v Dinamo Zagreb, Win and Loss v Shakhtar Donetsk, they did lose to, and draw with Man City.
  • Atalanta were emphatic against Valencia though. 4-1 and 3-4 wins.
  • We will expect a PSG goal and I think Atalanta's lack of Champions League experience is likely to see them flounder here. This is a one-off, one-legged match.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

18:00 - St Mirren v Celtic - 1.23 Celtic

  • With a 1-1 v Kilmarnock, this match v St Mirren becomes a must-win for Celtic already this season.
  • St Mirren lost 3-0 to Rangers latest and that really is the expectation against Celtic today.
  • Celtic have scored and conceded in their win and draw to date.
  • Neither side has had a 0-0 at halftime, albeit a sample of only 2 matches.

19:45 - Motherwell v Livingston - 2.16 Motherwell

  • 3rd last season, Motherwell have started poorly. 2 1-0 defeats v Ross County and Dundee United.
  • Livingston also lost their opening 2 matches v St Mirren and Hibernian.
  • LIvingston were unbeaten last 2 head to heads at home but lost the 2 recent visits to Motherwell.

19:45 - Ross Co v Kilmarnock - 2.56 Kilmarnock

  • The market cannot split these 2 sides.
  • An excellent, if efficient, start to the season for Ross County with a home 1-0 win v Motherwell and away 0-1 win v Hamilton.
  • Kilmarnock lost to Hibs 2-1 away but drew 1-1 with Celtic at home.
  • Contrasts early on. 1-0's v both teams to score. 3 and 2 goals in total before halftime in Killie matches this season.
  • 0-0, 1-0 Ross, 3-1 Killie in last 3 head to heads.

19:45 - Aberdeen v Hamilton - 1.9 Aberdeen

  • 4 wins in 5 head to heads for Aberdeen.
  • Only 1 match so far for Aberdeen, a 0-1 loss at home to Rangers.
  • Hamilton lost 5-1 v Celtic and 0-1 v Ross County.
  • Aberdeen were a good team last season and have the best of the recent head to heads. Enough to side with them today?

19:45 - Rangers v St Johnstone - 1.22 Rangers

  • Time to keep up the pressure on a Celtic dropping 2 points at Kilmarnock latest.
  • Rangers are yet to concede this season in a 0-1 win v Aberdeen and 3-0 win v St Mirren. The latter took some time to get going but they got there eventually.
  • St Johnstone drew 1-1 v Dundee United in their sole match of the season.

BELARUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - FC Minsk v Slavia Mozyr - 2.38 FC Minsk

  • An unappealing betting market.
  • Only 4 wins for Minsk since 5th April 2020.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 matches.
  • Minsk conceded last 9.
  • The reason why it's 2.38 the favourite is because FC Minsk are playing 11th today and they are unbeaten at home v 8th and lower and home and away v 11th and lower, even beating Mozyr 1-3 the last time these 2 met. So you see poor recent form but a beating of today's opponents and unbeaten form v 11th and lower.....hence 2.38 the favourite. Ordinarily, we'd oppose such poor seasonal form, but then....
  • Mozyr have scored and conceded in all matches v 9th and lower.
  • V 9th and lower, and Minsk are 14th, Mozyr have scored 2-3-1-3 goals. So if they find that scoring today, then I'd favour them, even if expecting both teams to score.

17:30 - Dinamo Brest v Slutsk - 1.27 Dinamo Brest

Dinamo Brest - 9th

  • 3 losses since 31st May came away from home.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches at home.
  • No draw in 8 at home.
  • Brest have scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower. 0-1 win v the Slutsk last time.
  • Scored and conceded at home v 11th and lower, losing only 1 match.

Slutsk - 12th

  • Only 1 win since 8th May 2020.
  • 7 losses and a win last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Conceded last 20 and last 10 away.
  • Weird form. Beating 1st, 5th and 8th away, but 100% defeats v 10th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • The Slutsk, if putting their best foot forward, are a threat away, beating 1st, 5th and 8th but the market expects their playing 9th today to go the way of the 100% defeats away v 10th and lower.
  • Slutsk have conceded last 20 matches. Remember that if they are keeping it tight. Brest have had a poor habit of scoring and conceding at home v 11th and lower but remain unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

18:00 - Malmo FF v Orebro - 1.31 Malmo

Malmo - 1st

  • 7 consecutive wins, 3 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Failed to score only in sole defeat.
  • Only 0-0 at halftime came in the first match of the season.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 3 at home.
  • Scored first in 6/7 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored home and away in all bar 1 match v 6th and lower.

Orebro - 10th

  • Only 4 wins. Won last away match 0-3 v Kalmar (went against the market expectation too!).
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 7. 1-1 v 2nd placed away.
  • 8/10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Malmo continue to score 2+ goals, then that is the obvious foundation to the win today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Malmo tend to score first at home so you might want to contemplate a halftime win for Malmo, but.....Orebro have conceded 8/10 goals away in the second half.

18:00 - Djurgardens v Mjallby - 1.56 Djurgardens

Djurgardens - 4th

  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Draw, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • 3-2-2 goals before halftime recently.
  • Scored and conceded last 3.
  • 2 home losses were 1-2 v 6th and 10th. Did beat 7th-12th inclusive away from home.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 5/7 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Mjallby - 8th

  • 3 score draws and a win last 4 matches.
  • Conceded last 8 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side away.
  • 8/9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Mjallby have not beaten a top 11 side. Is that damning enough? Djurgardens have been a little inconsistent with Draw, Win, Draw, Win, Loss at home.

CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE

11am - Shanghai East Asia v Wuhan Zall - 1.38 Shangai East Asia

  • 2 odds-on favourites today in the Chinese Super League, a league only 2 or 3 matches old.
  • 2 wins and a 1-1 draw for Shanghai East Asia. Only 1 home match was a 4-0 win.
  • Shanghai do tend to win head to heads but it was a 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • Win, Loss, Win For Wuhan Zall. The 2 wins came at home. Notably it was a very tight 0-1 away loss v solid side Beijing Guoan (see below - strong favourite).
  • Angles? Watch out for Wuhan Zall who were very tough to beat v Beijing Guoan. Shanghai East Asia have a sumptuous forward line - Hulk, Oscar, Arnautovic. They really struggled last match and equalised with a very late Oscar penalty. Remember that with what I said about Wuhan Zall v Beijing Guoan. You might even want to lay Shanghai East Asia at the off at odds on?

13:00 - Beijing Guoan v Hebei CFFC - 1.32 Beijing Guoan

  • 3/3 wins for Beijing Guoan 1-2, 1-0, 1-3 . Only 1 1-0 win at home.
  • 2-2, 4-0 loss, 2-2 for Hebei this season. The 4-0 loss for Hebei came v Shanghai East Asia.
  • 2-4-2 goals conceded by Hebei this season.
  • If we look at Hebei's concessions v Shanghai East Asia, this is the expectation for Beijing Guoan today. Will Hebei conceding 2 goals again?