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A limited number of matches. The German Bundesliga match is the most readable for me. Second leg Champions League matches were full of goals. Similar expected tonight?

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:30 - Manchester City v Arsenal - 1.34 Man City

Man City

  • 2 losses recently came away.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 at home.
  • Scored last 9 at home and scored 2+ goals last 5 at home.
  • Losses at home v 5th and 6th.
  • 0-3 win v Arsenal last head to head.

Arsenal

  • Only 1 loss under Arteta came v Chelsea.
  • 3 consecutive wins now.
  • 3 0-0's in their last 4 matches at halftime.
  • 4/4 draws away under Arteta.

Conclusions

  • New manager for Arsenal but the market has readily dismissed the recent 3 consecutive wins for Arsenal.
  • Man City are scoring 2+ goals in their last 5 at home but De Bruyne is a big miss.
  • The odds look far too short for me given the Arsenal unknown - Arteta v his old club.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

19:45 - St Mirren v Hearts - 2.42 Hearts

St Mirren - 11th

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • A win and 3 draws last 4 home matches.
  • 9/13 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
  • 0-0 and 5-2 loss v Hearts already this season.
  • Unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.

Hearts - 12th

  • Only 2 losses in 9 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches, losing only one.
  • Only 2 away wins.
  • 10/12 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Only beaten Hibs away.
  • 2 0-0's away v the bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • I don't normally research matches with a market like this. The form side is Hearts with only 2 losses in 9 matches, scoring and conceding in 6/7 losing only one match.
  • St Mirren though are unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.
  • Now you know why it is constantly a waste of time researching these matches. No strong angles.

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

20:00 - PSG v Dortmund - 1.67 PSG

  • 2-1 Dortmund from the first leg. All goals came in the second half. Haaland scored both Dortmund goals. Neymar scored the PSG goal.
  • In home CL matches for PSG, their losses recently came v Real Madrid and Man Utd.
  • 3 consecutive home wins to nil including a win v Real Madrid.
  • Dortmund have lost 3 of their last 4 away CL matches v Tottenham, Inter Milan and Barcelona. Their win...v Slavia Prague.
  • I fear for Dortmund today on that basis. Contextually, they can tolerate a 1-0 defeat and will be in the driving seat if scoring first.
  • PSG must simply score first today. I do not like Dortmund's struggles away in the CL. But will they simply play today's match as a 2nd half after a 2-1 first half lead?

20:00 - Liverpool v Atletico Madrid - 1.61 Liverpool

  • The market is emphatic here. A 1-0 Atletico Madrid should be undone in this second leg. Liverpool did concede first at home mid week but ended up winning by halftime. They must score first today.
  • Liverpool are unbeaten at home in the CL since 2014 and by extension are unbeaten at home in the CL under Jurgen Klopp.
  • They have conceded last 3 at home which they DO NOT want to do today.
  • 2-4-4-2-1 goals scored at home recently. 1-1 last match at home (they DO NOT want that today either!).
  • A rather sloppy 2-2 draw v Sevilla at the weekend for Atl Madrid is music to Liverpool's ears.
  • What is also music to Liverpool's ears is the Danny Dyer away form for Atletico Madrid in the CL. Only 2 away wins in 12 came v Monaco and Lokomotiv Moscow. That will have Liverpool quaking in their pink boots...............NOT!
  • 3 losses in 4 away came v Juventus twice and Bayer Leverkusen.
  • Atletico failed to score in 4/6 away v Dortmund, Club Brugge, Juventus (twice).
  • This Atletico Madrid form is very poor in the CL isn't it? The Liverpool 1-1 v Napoli last home match in the CL cannot be repeated today.
  • They must eye 2+ goals has occured in the 4 matches at home in the CL prior to that Napoli 1-1 draw.
  • Remember, a 0-0 does for Atletico Madrid today.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

17:30 - Mgladbach v Koln - 1.75 Mgladbach

  • Asian handicap: B. M'gladbach have won by two or more goals in 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while FC Koln have lost by two or more goals in 6/10 away matches. B. M'gladbach have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Mgladbach - 5th

  • Only 2 defeats in 9. Lost last home match v Dortmund but prior to that, 8 wins and a draw at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Scored last 11 at home.
  • 25% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 6th and lower.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.

FC Koln - 10th

  • 8 wins and 2 defeats last 10 matches.
  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 away matches.
  • 3-1-2-2-1-3-3-2-2 goals before halftime in recent matches.
  • Scored last 10 matches.
  • No draw in 11 and in 8 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Intermittent wins away v 8th, 12th, 13th, and 18th.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Mgladbach are fancied to bounce back. They are unbeaten home v 6th and lower. It must be said that Koln are in excellent form but contextually the highest positioned side they have beaten away has been 8th in the league.