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Day 2 of the Champions League and it is interesting that the market cannot discount Ajax, who have pulled off good results v the likes of Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. Man Utd v Barcelona is a hum dinger.
Fresh in my memory though is the mauling Messi gave to the boys from Tottingham. Unlikely Ole has met anyone this class yet during his current reign. I will nod tentatively towards Barcelona today. You know my thoughts on the English Championship but there are a few matches in which the market has taken a position.
Do remember that there are a few relegation threatened sides playing today. Could they 'do a Frosinone' today and buck the form?

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

20:00 - Ajax v Juventus - 2.38 Juventus

  • Due deference to Ajax that the market thinks that Juventus are not shorter priced favourites.
  • Last head to heads were in 2010.
  • Ajax have had an excellent run this campaign with eyecatching draws against the likes of Bayern Munich and a win v Real Madrid.
  • They are capable.
  • Juventus may be without Ronaldo and that is a big miss if this is a tight match. Team news necessary for Juventus who I personally expected to be shorter odds.
  • 2 consecutive away losses for Juventus v Young Boys and Atl Madrid. They did beat the likes of Tottenham, Man Utd and Real Madrid away.

20:00 - Man Utd v Barcelona - 2.04 Barcelona

  • The last 4 head to heads between these 2 were in friendlies or pre-season competitions.
  • New manager for Man Utd.
  • Under Ole, Man Utd came from 0-2 down at home in a first leg, to PSG, and won 1-3 at PSG in the second leg.
  • In 2 consecutive matches in the league for Barcelona, Messi and Suarez have both scored 85th+ minute goals to salvage matches.
  • Remember when Messi visited Tottenham? He wreaked havoc.
  • This will be fun but I don't have a strong angle into the match. I personally favour Barcelona.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

Another round of Championship matches. Caveat - I am only researching because it is a quiet day and not necessarily as a ringing endorsement to trade this league. Today, though, there are some short priced favourites which should make for more readable matches.

19:45 - Hull v Wigan - 2.24 Hull

Hull (12th)

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • Only 2 losses in 7 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 8 wins in 10 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime since 1st December 2018.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 10 home matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 13th and lower.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar one of those matches.

Wigan (19th)

  • Only 3 wins in 21 matches came at home.
  • No win in 18 away, conceding in those 18 away.
  • 9 losses and a 2-2 away v top 11.
  • 13 of 18 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Hull are to be favoured here and could score 2 goals.
  • Wigan, if they score, will score first half more than 2nd half.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if you can - only 1 0-0 at halftime since 1st December 2018 for Hull.

19:45 - Millwall v QPR - 2.04 Millwall

Millwall (20th)

  • Only 3 wins in 13 matches.
  • London derby of sorts.
  • Won their last home match v West Brom.
  • Scored in their last 8 matches.
  • Millwall are unbeaten at home v 4th-10th at home. Then no wins at home v 11th-17th.
  • 11 goals conceded at home in the last 15 minutes of matches.

QPR (18th)

  • Only 1 win in 16 matches.
  • No win in 8 away matches - conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 6 away matches.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 19.
  • Beat Millwall 2-0 earlier this season.
  • Unbeaten v 21st and lower.

Conclusions

  • A London derby so note that.
  • Note too the lowly status of these 2. Bayern v Dortmund this is not!
  • Millwall ended an indifferent run with a win v West Brom at home and they are unbeaten at home v 4th-10th at home but no wins v 11th-17th at home. Inconsistent and unreliable form leads me to be a little cautious.
  • QPR though are conceding for fun. And with Millwall scoring in their last 8 matches, QPR should concede again.

19:45 - Birmingham v Sheff Utd - 2.28 Sheff Utd

Birmingham (17th)

  • 5 consecutive defeats ended with a win.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home (45%).
  • Unbeaten at home v the top 4, albeit 2 draws and a win.
  • Lost to 5th, 6th, 7th at home.
  • 0-0 last head to head.

Sheffield United (3rd)

  • Only 2 defeats since 22nd December 2018.
  • 7 wins in their last 9 matches.
  • 8 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (35%).

Conclusions

  • Sheffield United look solid and their defence looks solid. I am not sure why their odds are not shorter. Is it because Birmingham happen to be unbeaten v the top 4 at home. I do note the 2 draws and would look to Sheff Utd not to lose (not discounting the draw).
  • You may want to back 0-0 pre match given the high % of 0-0's at halftime. You could back 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 and profit triply if 0-0 at halftime.

19:45 - Rotherham v Aston Villa - 1.78 Aston Villa

Rotherham (22nd)

  • 3 losses in 5 matches.
  • 2 wins in 3 at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet since 27th October 2018.
  • Conceded in their last 10 and last 14 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 at home.
  • Not beaten the top 8 home or away.
  • 2-0 loss to Villa earlier this season.

Aston Villa (6th)

  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 2 + goals scored in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Not actually beaten a side 18th and lower away.
  • 15 goals scored away last 30 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • What is with Aston Villa v 18th and lower away? No win. That is important because they are playing 22nd today.
  • I am, though, drawn to this solid 6 win run for Aston Villa, which may end that struggle they have away v 18th and lower.
  • Remember Rotherham do not tend to keep clean sheets and have not beaten the top 8 home or away so, for me, are layable if scoring first.

19:45 - Brentford v Ipswich - 1.51 Brentford

Brentford (14th)

  • No win in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 7 wins and 2 draws at home v 15th and lower.
  • 1-1 draw earlier this season.

Ipswich (24th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Won their last away match v Bolton.
  • 3 1-1 draws and a 1-2 win last 4 away.
  • Conceded in their last 20 away.
  • 2 away wins v 13th and 23rd.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, we look to oppose Ipswich BUT....they have conceded last 4 away without losing. It does suggest laying Ipswich though if they score first.
  • Despite poor recent form, Brentford, this season, have 7 wins and 2 draws at home v 15th and lower.
  • Are you with recent form (Brentford struggle to score - Ipswich unbeaten 4 away) or seasonal form (Brentford likely to win).

19:45 - Norwich v Reading - 1.39 Norwich

Norwich (1st)

  • Only 3 defeats since 2nd September 2018.
  • 8 consecutive wins, 5 at home.
  • Scored last 21 matches.
  • 100% wins at home v 17th and lower.
  • 3/4 goals scored in all bar one of those matches.
  • 15 goals scored at home last 15 minutes.

Reading (21st)

  • Only 4 wins in 13 matches.
  • 3 of those wins came at home. All of those wins saw both teams score.
  • 100% defeats v the top 4 home and away.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal away v the top 10.
  • 21 of 30 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Norwich should continue their 100% win record at home v 17th and lower.
  • Reading have been winning while conceding of late but do have a 100% loss record v the top 4.
  • Watch out for 75th+ minute goals from Norwich.

SWISS SUPER LEAGUE

17:45 - Luzern v Young Boys - 1.87 Young Boys

Luzern (6th)

  • Only wins since 1st December 2018 came twice v St Gallen and twice v Grasshopper.
  • Recent home loss v Basel was 0-1 and that is usually a good yardstick for what to expect v Young Boys.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not beaten the top 3 at home.
  • Beat Young Boys 2-3 away, lost 2-3 at home to them.

Young Boys (1st)

  • Only loss this season was a 2-3 away v ......Luzern.
  • 14 wins and 3 draws since that defeat.
  • 4 90th minute winners within the last 7 matches so watch out if 2-2 again!
  • Scored in every single match.
  • No defeat in 13 away.

Conclusions

  • I cannot see Luzern winning today. A recent 0-1 loss at home to Basel attests to that conclusion.
  • Young Boys patterns? Tend to score before halftime. If not, tend to score 90th minute winners.
  • Remember the Young Boys have scored in every match this season. I kept the faith with 100% scorers Basel and Werder Bremen at the weekend and they obliged!