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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 9, 2021

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UEFA Champions League

20:00 - Dortmund v Sevilla - 2.20 Dortmund

  • Sevilla scored first and last in the first leg but 3 Dortmund away goals has them favoured today. Sevilla must score 2 goals at least today, 1 is not enough given the Dortmund 3 goal haul.
  • Dortmund go through in the easiest manner with a 0-0.

20:00 - Juventus v Porto - 1.44 Juventus

  • A 2-1 Porto win from the first leg sees Juventus with a precious away goal. So, Juventus need only a 1-0 to progress in the quickest manner and must not concede first.

English Championship

18:00 - Blackburn v Swansea - 2.70 Blackburn

Blackburn - 15th

  • A run of 7 without a win ended last match with a 0-2 away win v Millwall.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw at home recently.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, 2 at fulltime.
  • No win v the top 5. 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • 3/3 losses at home v the top 5.
  • 2 goals scored at home v 2nd, 5th and 6th and away v 4th.
  • 10 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Swansea - 3rd

  • Only 2 losses since 19th December 2020.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 away matches.
  • No draw in 8 and in 10 away.
  • Scored in their last 11 and last 5 away.
  • 100% wins v 13th-17th home and away.

Conclusions

  • The Swans lose very infrequently, have a 100% win record v 13th-17th and 4/5 wins recently away from home.
  • Blackburn did win their last match but that ended a really poor run. What may upset the odds? Blackburn have scored 2 goals v 2nd, 5th, 6th at home and 4th away and play 3rd today.

19:00 - QPR v Wycombe - 1.61 QPR

QPR - 16th

  • Only 3 losses in 12 matches but 2 losses last 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins ended with a loss last home match.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, 2 at fulltime.
  • 1-1 last head to head. v 15th and lower only 1 loss was a 0-1.

Wycombe - 24th

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
  • 76% of halftime scorelines away are either 0-0 or 1-0.
  • Not beaten the top 17 away.

Conclusions

  • Bottom of the league Wycombe are obviously layable. QPR have been in good form at home and despite a recent defeat, could bounce back against a Wycombe failing to beat any top 17 team away.

Dutch Eredivisie

17:45 - Venlo v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.95 Sparta Rotterdam

VVV Venlo - 15th

  • 5 consecutive defeats conceding 3 goals at least.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Loss at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • Conceded last 11 at home.
  • v 7th and lower at home, 2 losses v 8th and 17th were 1-2.
  • Scored and conceded all home matches v 7th and lower.
  • 22/32 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Sparta Rotterdam - 13th

  • No win in 8 matches.
  • No win in 4 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 14th and lower.
  • 9/13 goals conceded away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • These 2 are in poor recent form but Sparta notably are unbeaten away v 14th and lower.
  • Both teams to score has a chance here with Sparta not losing?

Portuguese Primeira Liga

21:45 - Braga v Guimaraes - 1.57 Braga

Braga - 3rd

  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • 8 wins and a draw last 9 home matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Only played one of the top 7 at home , 2-2 v 2nd.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • 10 goals scored away last 1/2 hour of matches.

Guimaraes - 6th

  • Only 1 win in 6 came last match.
  • Draw, Win, Draw, Draw, Loss away.
  • Not played the top 3 away but 3/3 losses v top 3 at home.
  • 9/14 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • The fact that Guimaraes are 3/3 in defeats at home v the top 3 suggests struggles today v a Braga unbeaten in 9 at home. Rock solid form.
  • Braga are strong finishers 60th minute+.

English League 1

19:00 - Bristol Rovers v Accrington - 2.50 Accrington

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/15 Bristol Rovers home matches against top-half teams while Accrington S have drawn the first half in 9/14 away matches against bottom-six teams. Accrington S have drawn 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.

19:00 - Charlton v Northampton - 1.95 Charlton

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 7/11 Charlton home matches and +2.5 goals in 9/14 Northampton away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 9/11 Charlton home matches.

19:00 - Crewe v Doncaster - 2.40 Crewe

  • 1st goal: Crewe have scored first in 6/10 home matches while Doncaster have conceded first in 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams. Doncaster have lost 8/12 away matches against middle-third teams.

19:00 - Ipswich v Lincoln - 2.62 Lincoln

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 15/20 Ipswich home matches and in 9/10 Lincoln away matches against top-half teams. There have been -1.5 goals in 7/8 Lincoln away matches against top-half teams.

19:00 - MK Dons v Blackpool - 2.50 Blackpool

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/18 MK Dons home matches and in 12/18 Blackpool away matches. Blackpool have lost 6/10 away matches against bottom-half teams.

19:00 - Peterborough v Hull - 2.62 Peterborough

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 15/20 Peterborough home matches and in 11/15 Hull City away matches. Peterborough have won 17/20 home matches.

19:00 - Plymouth v Wigan - 1.91 Plymouth

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 4/6 Wigan away matches against middle-third teams and -1.5 goals in 3/6 Wigan such matches. Plymouth have won 3/5 home matches against bottom-six teams.

19:00 - Rochdale v Shrewsbury - 2.20 Shrewsbury

  • 1st half outcome: Rochdale have drawn the first half in 7/10 home matches against bottom-half teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 15/19 Shrewsbury away matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 6/11 Shrewsbury away matches.

19:00 - Swindon v Oxford Utd - 2.00 Oxford

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/9 Swindon home matches against top-half teams and in 10/20 Oxford away matches. Oxford have won 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

19:00 - Wimbledon v Burton - 2.60 Burton

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 AFC Wimbledon home matches against bottom-half teams while Burton have drawn the first half in 9/12 away matches. AFC Wimbledon have drawn the first half in 11/17 home matches.

19:45 - Fleetwood v Gillingham - 2.15 Fleetwood

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 11/13 Fleetwood home matches and in 6/8 Gillingham away matches against bottom-half teams. Gillingham have conceded first in 11/16 away matches.

19:45 - Portsmouth v Sunderland - 2.62 Sunderland

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Portsmouth home matches against top-six teams and in 5/7 Sunderland away matches against top-six teams. Portsmouth have drawn the first half in 5/8 home matches against top-six teams.

English League 2

19:00 - Bolton v Cambridge - 2.15 Bolton

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/13 Bolton home matches and in 7/11 Cambridge U away matches. Bolton have drawn the first half in 9/17 home matches.

19:00 - Carlisle v Grimsby - 1.61 Carlisle

  • Match outcome: Carlisle have won 5/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Grimsby have lost 9/11 away matches. Grimsby have conceded first in 9/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

19:00 - Crawley v Salford - 2.25 Salford

  • Match outcome: Crawley have won 5/8 home matches against top-half teams and they have scored first in 12/20 home matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 12/18 Salford away matches.

19:00 - Forest Green v Morecambe - 2.37 Forest Green

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Forest Green home matches against top-six teams while Morecambe have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams. Morecambe have lost 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.

19:00 - Harrogate v Colchester - 1.83 Harrogate

  • -1.5 goals: There have been -1.5 goals in 10/13 Harrogate Town home matches and -2.5 goals in 6/9 Colchester away matches against middle-third teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 11/13 Harrogate Town home matches.

19:00 - Leyton Orient v Stevenage - 2.40 Leyton Orient

  • 1st half outcome: Leyton Orient have drawn the first half in 6/9 home matches against bottom-half teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Stevenage away matches. Stevenage have lost 7/11 away matches against middle-third teams.

19:00 - Mansfield v Cheltenham - 2.60 Cheltenham

  • 1st half outcome: Mansfield have drawn the first half in 9/15 home matches against top-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Cheltenham away matches. Mansfield have scored first in 7/10 home matches.

19:00 - Newport v Bradford - 2.40 Newport

  • 1st half outcome: Newport have drawn the first half in 9/12 home matches while Bradford have drawn 4/7 away matches against top-six teams. Bradford have drawn the first half in 5/7 away matches against top-six teams.

19:00 - Port Vale v Oldham - 2.40 Port Vale

  • 1st goal: Port Vale have scored first in 6/9 home matches against bottom-half teams while Oldham have conceded first in 8/11 away matches. Oldham have drawn the first half in 8/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.

19:00 - Scunthorpe v Exeter - 2.10 Exeter

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Scunthorpe home matches against top-half teams while Exeter have drawn the first half in 5/9 away matches against bottom-half teams. Exeter have conceded first in 6/10 away matches against bottom-half teams.

19:00 - Southend v Tranmere - 2.20 Tranmere

  • 1st half outcome: Southend have drawn the first half in 9/12 home matches while there have been -2.5 goals in 8/15 Tranmere away matches. Southend have lost 10/16 home matches.