DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 8, 2017
The English Championship. They should re-name it the Krypton Factor League. Tough puzzle to solve. But made easier when QPR, who love their 2-1's, deliver, and Fulham, who absolutely battered Leeds, managed to score late on for a 1.1 lay of Leeds. There were lots of 2nd half goals in the Championship. Is that the norm? It is not a league I tend to focus on.
Tonight sees 3 eminently tradeable matches. Unlike Arsenal and Napoli, in Barcelona and Dortmund, we have 2 teams who have been scoring absolute shedloads in their recent league matches. I might be up tonight (it is newsletter week!) so if up, I'll be on Twitter. It is a manageable set of matches so I hope you can share your shouts on Twitter @drtclub 19:45 start.
19:45 - Barcelona v PSG - 1.46 Barcelona
- Barcelona have been practicing scoring 4+ goals in their last 2 home matches in the Spanish La Liga. 6-1 and 5-0 would of course be perfect scorelines this evening, in order to address the 4-0 PSG lead.
- Arsenal could not do it. Barcelona certainly have the squad to do it.
- Note yesterday that those teams who needed to win, did win.
- Any other home win is at odds of 4.2 and the market doe think it has an excellent chance of coming in. So laying PSG to qualify at 1.11 is the value here. The market goes in-play.
- Hatrick scored yes is a market which goes in-play. 8.6 currently in an illiquid market. Surely in order to topple a 4-0, you'd expect the likes of Messi and Suarez to step up and score a couple of goals?
19:45 - Dortmund v Benfica - 1.38 Dortmund
- 1-0 Benfica from the first leg. Their job is clear. Score an away goal and score it first. This will then require Dortmund to score 3 goals in order to qualify.
- As with Barcelona, Dortmund have been flexing their scoring muscles with 3-3-6 goals in their last 3 Bundesliga matches. Coincidence or a deliberate act?
- 3-0, 3-1 and any other home win at odds of 10.5, 12 and 4.7 appeals to me today. It assumes that Benfica do not score 2 goals. You may want a 3-2 at 29 as a saver.
- 2-2-0-2-2-3 goals scored by Benfica away from home. Interesting!
- Unlike yesterday, we have 2 teams in Dortmund and Barcelona far more capable of overturning their deficits. I think we will see 2 tradeable matches unlike last night.
20:00 - Man City v Stoke - 1.24 Man City
- 4-0 and 1-4 in the last 2 head to heads in Man City's favour.
- Premier League, FA Cup then Champions League for Man City. Will we see some team changes?
- This is 3rd v 9th in the Premiership. A chance for City to go 2nd with a win today. Stoke are 5 points shy of that elusive 40 points and safety.
Man City 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- Scored in all home matches.
- Unbeaten at home v 2nd and lower.
- Have not conceded 2 goals at home outside of the top 4.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
- No over 4.5 goals at home.
Man City other stats
- 4 consecutive wins and have scored 2 goals at least in 10 of their last 12 matches.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Conceded last 4 home matches.
- 11 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Stoke 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 8 side home or away (all defeats v top 5 teams).
- Conceded 3 or 4 goals in defeats v top 5 teams.
- No away 0-0.
Stoke other stats
- 5 defeats in their last 6 away matches.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime in their last 16 matches.
- 8 goals conceded 31st-45th min away.
- It all points to Stoke defeat and the likely concession of 3 or 4 goals, depending on whether Pep Gladioli changes the squad in light of a busy schedule.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Given City concede 11 of 13 home goals 2nd half, logic suggests that they are the leaders if there are to be leaders at halftime.
- Let's hope for a 0-0 halftime as I would certainly load up on correct scores.