Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Gaps in form can spoil momentum as we saw with Celta v Atl Bilbao last night. This is going to be a problem in researching Spanish La Liga, German Bundesliga and Italian Seria A, all of whom have had a Christmas Break....as do the French. These Europeans. Not as resilient as us Brits who will play through cold, blizzards, and too much turkey.
Australian Open qualifying is under way in the tennis. The Australian Open is the first Grand Slam tournament of 2019. The time difference makes it a hard to trade tournament for us.
Fear not, from the Monaco Open onwards, there are 3 Grand Slams and loads of quality tennis tournaments which suit UK time zones. I will be trading these on Twitter as I traditionally do. If I am able to follow the Australian Open, given my preferential time zone, I'll collect some screenshots for you.
Tennis, remember, is a great DRT sport.

ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP

20:00 - Tottenham v Chelsea - 2.3 Tottenham

  • The Liverpool team last night saw multiple changes. The big 3 up front were all rested.
  • I mention that because we may see multiple changes for both sides this evening.
  • Add in the fact that this is a London Derby, Chelsea have a relatively new manager, and it all points to in-play stats only.
  • Not for me this evening.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

18:00 - Nantes v Montpellier - 2.66 Nantes

  • 2 French Ligue 1 matches with favourites at odds of 2.6 and higher. You know what that means!
  • The away team has won each of the last 3 head to heads.
  • Last matches played on 22nd December. As I wrote above, we have to assume that form patterns will continue despite the long break obviously offering coaches a change to rectify weaknesses.

Nantes (14th)

  • Last match 22nd December was a 1-0 loss to PSG.
  • One of 2 losses in their last 8 matches, both defeats away defeats. 3 wins and a draw last 4 at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets is a worry.
  • Not played top 5 at home and did beat 6th 3-2.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Montpellier (4th)

  • 3 losses all season but 2 losses came within the last 5 matches, a run of only 1 win there.
  • Only 1 away loss.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 1-3-0-2-2-2-1 goals scored away v 8th and lower. That 0 was in a recent away loss. But the usual pattern is for a hint of 2 goals.
  • 0-0-1-2-1-1-1- goals conceded v 8th and lower away. A good defensive foundation.

Conclusions

  • Montpellier faltered at the back end of 2018 with only 1 win in 5 and 2 of their losses coming in those 5 matches. One loss saw them fail to score but that is rare v 8th and lower. They average 1.6 goals v 8th and lower. If that pattern continues, I think they could do enough to at least get a draw.
  • They meet a Nantes who would have preferred not to have seen this Winter haitus. 3 wins in 4 at home, only 2 losses in 8. They are yet to meet the top 5 at home so there is a gap in form there. With only 3 clean sheets, I think Nantes are layable if scoring first.

18:00 - Amiens v Angers - 2.84 Angers

  • A Winter Break and 2.84 the favourite. 'I'll get me coat' as they say on the Fast Show.
  • Angers won last season's head to heads without conceding.

Amiens (17th)

  • Ended last season with a win and draw, both teams scoring.
  • Tend to break runs of 2/3 losing with a win.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats ended last season.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Messy home form. Beating 8th and 9th, but losing to 19th for example. Both teams did score in all home matches v top 14.
  • 75% of goals scored and 71% of goals conceded came 2nd half.

Angers (15th)

  • A win and 4 draws ended last season.0-1-1-0-1 goals conceded so solid defensive response to a 4-3 loss v St Etienne.
  • Failed to score only 4 times.
  • No win in 4 away.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten away v 9th and lower.
  • 9 of 10 goals scored away came first half.

Conclusions

  • Angers got the best of Amiens last season and have the form to go unbeaten today. But remember a market like this suggests that any result could occur.
  • If Angers score, it tends to be first half. You may want to back 0-1 in the halftime score market if 0-0 after 20 minutes. With only 3 clean sheets, Amiens look likely to concede.
  • The Winter Break spoils the form lines but if the form lines continue, Angers should remain unbeaten.

The big boys are out in Greece in the Greek Cup. PAOK and Olympiakos away from home. 15:00 and 15:15 kick offs. In-play stats will reveal their attitudes to the cup.