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That Man City blueprint when 1.2 odds favourites or shorter continues! 0-0 at halftime, late 2nd half goal for a 1-0. Only in this case, Aguero was not the goal scorer! AC Milan won. It is a quiet day today. My only strong, albeit tentative, angle? Lay Barcelona in the 'to qualify' market at odds of 1.06.


20:00 - Liverpool v Barcelona - 2.52 Liverpool

  • Now is not a good time to be without Firmino and Salah! Liverpool must score the first 3 goals tonight in order to stay in this competition. If Barcelona score that away goal, and first, the tie will quickly extinguish as Liverpool will then need to score 5 goals.
  • Add to that the resting of key first team players for Barcelona at the weekend and it all seems doomed for Liverpool.
  • The value for me here is in laying Barcelona at 1.06 in the 'To Qualify' market. Remember what Man Utd did against Paris St. Germain. Tonight is the night for the 2nd string attacking unit to shine for Liverpool.
  • That is the only angle tonight which allows a low risk, high return play.


  • You saw last night with the Norrkoping match (ending 0-0) that a small sample of matches can lead to misleading conclusions. I will persist today in what is a quiet day. The Finnish Veikkausliiga is a good summer league, particularly if we latch onto HJK Helsinki.

16:30 - VPS v HJK Helsinki - 1.94 HJK Helsinki

  • 5 consecutive head to head wins for HJK should see them competitive and expecting the win today.
  • A loss and 4 draws for VPS this season suggests possibly laying VPS if they score first as they don't seem to be able to hold onto a lead .
  • 3 consecutive score draws for VPS.
  • HJK have actually played 2 matches more than VPS. 2 wins started the season but now HJK have seen 4 draws and a loss. 3 of the draws were 0-0. 2 0-0 draws and a loss away for HJK.
  • HJK are usually the Champions in this league but the early season form is as poor as VPS's.
  • Both sides' sole loss this season came v FC Inter (HJK did beat FC Inter as well). Both sides have drawn with KuPS, Ilves and SJK.
  • Little to excite me here. The head to heads seem compelling but HJK are in poor recent form.

16:30 - Ilves v Honka - 2.76 Ilves

  • Honka have not lost the last 4 head to heads, 2 were score draws.
  • Ilves are unbeaten this season, 3 wins and 2 0-0 draws.
  • 0-0 and 1-0 at home for Ilves.
  • Honka are yet to draw in 5 matches. 1-2 win, 0-3 win and 2-0 loss away for Honka.
  • 2-1-3-3-0 goals scored by Honka this season. 2-0-1-1-0 goals scored by Ilves this season.
  • A lack of congruity here. Ilves are yet to concede a goal but in head to heads, Honka have not lost ion 4 matches.
  • Little to work with but worth dipping a toe into Finland with the summer in mind.

16:30 - FC Inter v RoPS - 1.87 FC Inter

  • Win, Draw, Draw last 3 head to heads at FC Inter.
  • Both teams have scored in all FC Inter matches this season with just 2 wins. Last match saw the first home win for FC Inter, a comprehensive 4-1 win v HJK Helsinki which is solid form.
  • Same form for RoPS this season.A draw, 3 losses and 2 wins.
  • 2-2, 0-1 win and 2-0 loss away for RoPS this season.
  • Will both teams score for FC Inter? If we take their win v HJK Helsinki last home match as true form, then we must be with FC Inter.
  • But...caveat... only 6 matches played.