Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 7, 2017

No angles yesterday as Chelsea scored the first 2 goals and Sevilla scored first v Alaves. I wanted West Ham and Alaves to score first. Today's Coupon is a toughie. We have Champions League 2nd legs and the tough-as-boots English Championship. Ordinarily I would not research or trade the English Championship so enter the research with that thought! Barnsley look the more solid v QPR; Burton have not beaten a top 15 team; I am very taken by Fulham's scoring at home and that is enough to side with them if Leeds score first; Rotherham are relegated - right? Great opportunity for Brighton today; 3 home losses v 3 away wins - side with Huddersfield today?; top 5 Reading v Newcastle a toughie but Geordies have scored 2+ goals in 8 of their last 10 - outscore Reading today?
I will actually be up for these matches this evening just to see if my research can translate into profits in a league I usually dismiss (Note I have not researched the other matches). I'll see you on Twitter if you are about at 19:45.

19:45 - Napoli v Real Madrid - 2.42 Real Madrid

  • 3-1 Real Madrid from the first leg of this Champions League match.
  • Napoli need a 2-0 in order to progress. Note that as it is likely to impact tactics. Napoli MUST score first and must keep a clean sheet.
  • Real Madrid will embrace a 1-0 or a 0-0 today and still go through. If Real Madrid score, this should end the tie.
  • Both teams have scored in Real Madrid's last 7 Champions League matches.
  • Both teams have scored in Napoli's last 7 away Champions League matches.
  • I fear for Napoli today. They keep conceding, Real Madrid keeps scoring.
  • Angle in? Not sure I have one. Napoli must keep a clean sheet so back 0-0 pre match?

19:45 - Arsenal v Bayern Munich - 2.08 Bayern Munich

  • 5-1 Bayern Munich from the first leg. Arsenal require a 4-0 win in order to progress.
  • Arsenal have scored 6-3-2-4-1 goals in recent Champions League matches but teams like Ludogorets are not in the same league as Bayern Munich. It does show, to the ever-optimistic Arsenal fan, that Arsenal have goals in them.
  • Arsenal must keep Bayern Munich from scoring. Bayern themselves can afford a 3-0 defeat but that will be too close to a 4-0 defeat for them to tolerate I think.
  • Arsenal did beat Bayern 2-0 in 2015 but Bayern have scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches away.
  • Again, what is our trading angle in? Just because this is a high profile match, if there is no trading angle of attack, the match can be enjoyed from a watching brief OR traded via in-play stats.

19:45 - QPR v Barnsley - 2.14 QPR

  • 2-3 QPR and 3-2 Barnsley in the last 2 English championship head to heads.
  • This is 16th v 11th in the English Championship.

QPR 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

QPR other stats

  • 4 2-1 scorelines in their last 5 matches - 2 wins and 2 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 11 matches.
  • 5 2-1 scorelines in their last 6 home matches.
  • Conceded in all but 1 match at home v top 10 teams.

Barnsley 100% stats

  • Unbeaten away v 17th and lower - now will that stretch to 16th and lower? We shall see.
  • All clean sheets away v 17th and lower.

Barnsley other stats

  • Only 2 0-0's away.
  • 70% of halftime scores were 0-0 or 1-0.
  • All defeats bar 1 away came v top 10 teams.
  • 17 of 25 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would note the 2-1 scorelines for QPR which suggests to me to lay QPR if QPR score first. Barnsley form looks more solid.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Sheffield Wednesday v Burton - 1.66 Sheff

  • 3-1 Burton in the last head to head. The market expects a sudden turn around tonight.
  • This is 6th v 19th in the English Championship.

Sheffield Wednesday 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 16th and lower.
  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Sheffield Wednesday other stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No draw in 7 matches and in 5 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 home 0-0.
  • Only 1 draw at home.
  • 11 goals scored last 15 mins of matches at home.

Burton 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 15 team away.
  • Not won to nil away.

Burton other stats

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's away.
  • Only 2 away wins.
  • 11 goals conceded in their last 15 minutes away.

Conclusions

  • Burton won the last head to head but that does seem an anomoly. Burton have not beaten a top 15 team today and our expectation is for that to continue today.
  • Note 2 consecutive 0-0's away for Burton. I would look at that ending today.
  • Note late late goals scored (Sheff) and conceded (Burton). The absolute ideal for us? A 0-0 coming to the 75th minute! I would look at a late goal in that case.
  • Sheff Wed should remain unbeaten today.

19:45 - Fulham v Leeds - 1.86 Fulham

  • 3 consecutive 1-1's in head to heads. I tend to oppose sequences like these and will add that to my conclusions today.
  • This is 7th v 4th in the English Championship and we could see a tight match today with 2 in-form sides.

Fulham 100% stats

  • Scored in all home matches v top 16 teams.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Fulham other stats

  • In 6 of their last 7 matches, Fulham have scored 2+ goals.
  • 2-2-0-2-1 goals conceded in their last 5 matches so need to score those 2 goals!
  • 5-2-2-1-2-3-3-3 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • Only 1 defeat at home v top 12.

Leeds 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No draw away v top 12.

Leeds other stats

  • Scored and conceded last 7 away matches.

Conclusions

  • I will lay any late 1-1 scoreline and hope head to head 1-1 sequence ends.
  • With Leeds we expect both teams to score. On form, I would want Leeds to score first in order to lay them with some confidence (If Fulham continue to score the shedload they are scoring at home of late).
  • An argument for a 3-1 today, and 3-2 but that is speculating and not really trading. Based on Fulham scoring 3 goals in each of their last 3 home matches and for both teams to score.

19:45 - Ipswich v Wolves - 2.78 Ipswich

  • I will be leaving these matches until the end. 2.78 favourites tells us these are too tough to call.

19:45 - Bristol City v Norwich - 2.56 Norwich

  • As above.

19:45 - Birmingham v Wigan - 2.24 Birmingham

  • 1-1 in the last head to head saw Wigan equalise in the 90th minute.
  • This is 17th v 23rd (of 24) in the English Championship.

Birmingham other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 14 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 home matches.
  • 2 wins v bottom 3 at home.
  • 19 of 26 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Wigan 100% stats

  • No draw v 16th and lower away.
  • All away defeats were by a single goal.

Wigan other stats

  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.

Conclusions

  • Bitty, unreadable, form for both sides leaves me wanting to avoid this match unless there is an in-play stats angle.
  • One point to note. If Wigan are to lose, will it continue to be by one goal?

19:45 - Rotherham v Brighton - 1.52 Brighton

  • 3-0 Brighton in the previous head to head.
  • This is 24th v 2nd in the Championship.

Rotherham 100% stats

  • Must be resigned to relegation.
  • All 4 home wins by 1 goal.
  • No 0-0.
  • No draw v top 14 sides.
  • All defeats v top 7.

Rotherham other stats

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 15 matches.
  • 16 goals conceded last 1/2 hour of home matches.

Brighton 100% stats

  • Beaten all teams 19th and lower home and away.

Brighton other stats

  • 2 consecutive defeats surely to end today?
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • 13 goals scored away last 30 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Unmotivated v Motivated today. Relegated v Automatically promoted?
  • Brighton should end a 2 match losing sequence. They have beaten all teams 19th and lower.
  • Watch out for late goal action last 30 mins, particularly with Brighton scoring late.
  • Lay any late draw.

19:45 - Nottm Forest v Brentford - 2.74 home and away teams

  • The market cannot split these teams.

19:45 - Derby v Preston - 2.04 Derby

  • 0-0 and 0-1 Derby in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 9th in the Championship.

Derby 100% stats

  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Derby other stats

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 3-3-3-0-2 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • 11 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 4 wins, a 0-0 and a 0-2 at home v top 8.2-0-0-2-0-0 conceded in those matches.
  • A massive 9 goals scored at home 61st-75th minutes.

Preston other stats

  • Only 5 defeats in 27 matches.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Only 1 win away v top 15 sides.

Conclusions

  • I would say 5 defeats in 27 matches suggests a solid performance from Preston but then they have only 1 away win v top 15 sides.
  • Derby are solid v top 8 teams (and they play 9th today).
  • I am going to give this one a miss. I can make a cogent argument for either side.

19:45 - Huddersfield v Aston Villa - 1.99 Huddersfield

  • 1-1 in the last head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 13th in the Championship.

Huddersfield 100% stats

  • No draw at home v top 16 teams.
  • All home wins by 1 goal (10) and 2 goals (2).
  • No over 4.5 goals at home.
  • No 0-0.

Huddersfield other stats

  • Only 2 defeats in 16 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 4 wins in their last 5 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 home matches.

Aston Villa 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 4 team.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Aston Villa other stats

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 5 away defeats ended with a win last away match.
  • Only 3 away wins.
  • Failed to score in 9 of 12 away matches v top 15 teams.

Conclusions

  • Aston Villa are poor away from home with only 3 away wins but they are in good ultra recent form with 3 consecutive wins.
  • Huddersfield have a confident air at home. I would lay any late draw.
  • Do not expect a 0-0.
  • Only 3 home losses v only 3 away wins. I must be with Huddersfield today. Will they avoid another draw v top 16 teams?

19:45 - Blackburn v Cardiff - 2.84 both sides

  • Another match whose betting market is telling us to avoid it! The market cannot split the teams.

20:00 - Reading v Newcastle - 2.04 Newcastle

  • 4-1 to Newcastle earlier in the season. Both of the big 2 are away from home with Brighton, on the face of it, having the easier assignment.
  • This is 5th v 1st so this will be a test for Newcastle.

Reading 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v top 12 teams.

Reading other stats

  • 4 wins and a 0-0 in their last 5 home matches.
  • 2/3rd's of halftime scores either 0-0 or 1-0.
  • Scored in all home matches so far v top 12 teams.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Newcastle 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Beaten 2nd, 3rd and 4th away.
  • Not conceded in both halves away.

Newcastle other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss away v top 16 teams.

Conclusions

  • This could be a toughie for the league leaders. Reading are unbeaten v top 12 teams.
  • Newcastle though are in rare old form and have beaten the top 4 away from home. They have scored 2 goals at least in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • It is that latter stat which tells me to lay Reading if Reading lead (and they may do as they tend to concede mostly 2nd half). Newcastle tend to score and concede of late but may just outscore Reading.