As with yesterday, we were successful in focusing on the few and not the many (Maritimo scoring first half, Oss over 2.5 goals etc). So today, here's what I will focus on - I would expect a Monaco goal; I would lay Fiorentina if Fiorentina score first; Bayern beat Wolfsburg 1-3 recently in the cup - enough to expect Bayern not to lose today?
18:00 - Montpellier v Monaco - 1.97 Monaco
- Monaco tend to win the most recent head to heads, scoring emphatically as well.
Montpellier 100% stats
- Unbeaten at home v teams above them in the league - Montpellier are 13th, Monaco are top.
Montpellier other stats
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- No defeat in 7 at home.
Monaco 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- Unbeaten home and away v teams 11th and lower in the league.
Monaco other stats
- Failed to score only once.
- Only 3 defeats.
- Scored in their last 17 matches.
- 91% over 1.5 goals away.
- This might be a battle for Monaco today. Montpellier actually beat PSG at home and are unbeaten v top 10 at home.
- But then Monaco are unbeaten v teams 11th and lower in the league.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Do expect a Monaco goal. They are prolific at home, yes, but have also scored in their last 17 matches.
- Other than that, it would be no great surprise were Montpellier to get something, such is their home form.
18:00 - Caen v Bordeaux - 2.62 Caen
- 1-0 Caen and 0-0 in the last 2 French Ligue 1 head to heads.
Caen 100% stats
- No home 0-0.
- No home match with exactly 4 goals.
Caen other stats
- 3-3-3 scored in their last 3 home matches.
Bordeaux 100% stats
- No away match with a 1-0 or 0-1.
Bordeaux other stats
- 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
- Bitty away form - no pattern to it.
- A match making no appeal. I cannot get any strong trading angles. Remember, just because I research a match it does not mean I have to play!
- I will leave the match up. It may offer you an angle.
19:45 - Roma v Fiorentina - 1.66 Roma
- This is Italian Seria A Fiorentina won the last head to head 1-0.
Roma 100% stats
- No draw at home.
- All wins at home.
- No home match with 2 goals exactly.
Roma other stats
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- 7 wins in 9 matches.
- 3 clean sheets in 4 matches were 1-0.
- 19 of 28 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Fiorentina 100% stats
- No away 0-0.
- No draw at halftime away.
- 4 defeats out of 4 away v top 9 teams saw both teams score.
- If Roma are to win today, they will have to outscore Fiorentina as Fiorentina tend to lose but score in defeat v the top 9.
- No draw for Fiorentina at halftime so lay the 0-0 in the haltime score market.
- I would lay Fiorentina if Fiorentina score first.
19:45 - Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg - 1.22 Bayern
Bayern overall form
- 9 consecutive wins ended with a draw last match.
- 11 wins and 3 1-1 draws in their last 14 home matches.
Bayern Cup form
- Not lost a cup match since August 2012.
- Last home cup defeat was in March 2011.
Wolfsburg overall form
- 3 consecutive wins ended with 2 defeats recently.
- Only 3 wins in their last 9 away matches.
Wolfsburg cup form
- 8 wins in 9 cup matches. The loss? 1-3 v Bayern Munich.
- 6 consecutive away cup wins.
- Interestingly it seems both of these sides are up for the cup. Tellingly, Wolfsburg's defeat was v Bayern most recently in the cup.
- Is that enough to side with the home side today?
- Lay Wolfsburg if Wolfsburg score first.
19:45 - Greuther Furth v Mgladbach - 1.62 Mgladbach
- 2 Bundesliga meets Bundesliga in the German Cup.
Greuther Furth overall stats
- 2 wins last 3 matches.
- No draw in 7 home.
- 4 wins in 6 matches saw both teams score.
Greuther Furth cup stats
- Beat Mainz 2-1 recently - another top flight Bundesliga side - care of a 90th minute winner so an element of luck.
Mgladbach overall stats
- Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
- After 5 consecutive defeats away, win, 0-0, 2-3 win last 3 matches away.
Mgladbach cup stats
- Only 1 loss in 17 matches was a 3-4 v Werder Bremen.
- 7 wins, a draw and a loss in their last 9 cup matches.
- It looks as if the Bundesliga side Mgladbach have solid cup form, enough to side with them today. Furth did beat Mainz 2-1 recently. Do we read anything into that? It was a late 90th minute winner.
19:45 - Wigan v Norwich - 2.46 Norwich
- I will research this as it is a league match (as opposed to the Cup we face in Germany).
- I must say, an English Championship match with a 2.46 favourite would ordinarily be swerved! We shall see what the stats reveal.
Wigan 100% stats
- Wigan are 2nd bottom in the league.
- Not beaten any top 12 teams at home. Norwich are 7th.
- Failed to score at home v all top 10 teams.
Wigan other stats
- No draw in 8 at home.
- All defeats at home v top 8 - 4 of those defeats were 0-1.
Norwich 100% stats
Norwich other stats
- 4 wins in 5 matches.
- Scored and conceded home and away v bottom 4 sides.
- Strange to see the market dismiss 7th placed Norwich v 3rd bottom Wigan.
- Both teams could score today. 2-1 / 1-2 are the scorelines that tend to prevail for Norwich v bottom sides so I would back these as a trading angle.
- Lay any late draw.
- Caveat - this is ordinarily a match I would avoid!
19:45 - MK Dons v Oldham - 1.89 MK Dons
- 0-2 MK Dons win in the last head to head.
- This is English League One. I rarely venture here but in light of so many cup matches, I thought I would include the odd league match as form is more readable.
MK Dons 100% stats
MK Dons other stats
- Unbeaten in 5 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at home.
- Only 3 home wins. Oldham are 4th bottom. MK Dons lost against 3rd bottom and 2nd bottom.
Oldham 100% stats
- No over 4.5 goals match away.
- Not scored in both halves away.
Oldham other stats
- 7 0-0's at halftime away.
- Only 3 away wins, 2 were 0-1 v bottom 3 sides.
- Another match I can happily wave goodbye to. I thought an odds on favourite might produce an angle for me, but no.
- Can we trust a home side whose form is no inconsistent that they lose to bottom 3 sides?
- I am not going to research the other lower league English match.
20:00 - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.63 Barcelona
- 1-2 to Barcelona from the first leg in this Spanish Copa Del Rey.
- Atl Madrid need a 0-1 today. 2-1, 2-1, 1-1 for Barcelona the last 3 times Atl Madrid visited.
- Back 1-1 pre match?
20:00 - Paris St-G v Lille - 1.25 PSG
- Monaco are still gettable at the top of French Ligue 1 for PSG.
PSG 100% stats
- No defeat at home.
- All wins at home v 7th and lower without conceding - Lille are 12th.
- Scored 2+ goals in those wins.
- Not conceded in both halves at home.
PSG other stats
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- 91% over 1.5 goals at home.
Lille 100% stats
- Not conceded in both halves away.
Lille other stats
- Only 2 defeats in 10.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away.
- Only 2 away wins.
- 1-1 v 3rd and 1-2 v 4th away. Only lost 0-1 to PSG at home.
- 11 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- On form, PSG should be scoring 2 at least and winning to nil. That's if the Lille who drew 1-1 v 3rd and beat 4th 1-2 away don't turn up.
- We might see a sturdy Lille in the first half, but as with Oss last night (I hope you profited!), expect 2nd half goals. Huge concessions 2nd half.