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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 7, 2015

So, did you lay Birmingham 0-2 up before halftime ? My research told you Birmingham haven't won at halftime away this season. Halftime score? Bournemouth 2- Birmingham 2. This is where the big money was yesterday. Why? Bournemouth's equaliser was in the 45th+ 2 minutes of the first half!! I do hope you filled yer boots.

6pm - Monaco v Montpellier  - 1.72 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 and 0-1 Monaco in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 7th in French Ligue 1. Monaco go equal on points with Marseille in 3rd if they win today.

Monaco

  • Only 2 losses in 22 matches.
  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • 11 clean sheets in 15 matches but have conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 7 consecutive home clean sheets ended with a 1-1 at home v St Etienne latest.
  • Only 2 losses at home v 13th and 17th.
  • Against top 8 at home, Monaco have drawn 5 of 6 matches with 3 0-0's, a 1-0, and 2 1-1's . Against top 11 at home, add a couple of 1-0 wins to these .
  • 20% over 2.5 goals at home
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home is nearly 1/2 of home matches.

Montpellier

  • Only 1 draw in 11 matches was a 0-0
  • Inconsistent away. 0-0 v 1st, 5-1 loss v 2nd and 0-2 win v 3rd says it all.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away is 50% of matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Head to heads suggest Monaco revert to defensive tightness and nick it 1-0. Matches at home v top 11 suggests the same. 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 likely scorelines if this Monaco turns up!
  • Montpellier are that most dangerous of teams. Look at their away results v top 3. Totally inconsistent.
  • Faith in Monaco today and that solid defence?
  • I would not lay 0-0 halftime score . I would keep faith in a goal in this match so would lay the 0-0 in the 2nd half, as late as possible.
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6pm - Wolfsburg v Freiburg  - 1.33 home

Standout Stats

  • 4 Wolfsburg wins in their last 5 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 14th in the Bundesliga.
  • This is the German Cup

Wolfsburg

  • Only 1 loss in 24 matches in all competitions.
  • 9 consecutive home wins scoring 2+ goals in all competitions.
  • In their last 13 cup matches, only Dortmund and Bayern Munich have beaten them
  • 5 consecutive home cup wins.

Freiburg

  • 2 consecutive wins but before these, only 2 wins in 8 matches. Inconsistent in all competitions.
  • Just lose away to Wolfsburg 3-0 in the league. Part of a run of 3 in 4 matches where Freiburg failed to score away from home.
  • Only 2 losses in the cup since 2012 . 3 consecutive wins v Eintracht Trier, 1860 Munich and Koln.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 away cup matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Well, Wolfsburg won 3-0 in Freiburg's last away match. Since then Freiburg have won 2 matches. But that piece of form is compelling as it was so recently.
  • Wolfs at home are excellent and only tend to lose in the cup to the cream of the crop in the Bundesliga.
  • I expect Wolfsburg, if playing their first team, to prevail so will oppose any Freiburg lead today.
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7pm - Twente v Zwolle  - 1.75 home

Standout stats

  • this is a Dutch Cup match and I am none too keen to research it or trade it apart from a logical play towards goals if this is 0-0 for a short while
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7pm - Atl Madrid v Sociedad  - 1.34 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 Madrid wins ended by Football Genius David Moyes and a 2-1 home win for Sociedad in the last head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 10th in La Liga
  • A win for Madrid puts them within 2 points of real Madrid in 2nd.

Atl Madrid

  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 2 match winning streak
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 6 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home
  • Have scored at least 2 goals at home to 7th and lower.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
  • 23 of 37 home goals scored in the first half.
  • Only conceded 3 goals in the first half.

Real Sociedad

  • No defeat in 2 away
  • Touble scoring away. Recently scored 0-0-1-0-0-1-1-1-2-0-1-1. More consistent latterly but when they scored 2 they drew. Only 1 win was a 0-1 in that run. So it's a precarious record.
  • No win away v top 7, losing to 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th
  • Only 1 win away was a 0-1 v Celta Vigo
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away ( 43%)

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • So Atl Madrid are scoring 2 goals regularly at home. Sociedad have only scored more than 1 goal away in 1 match recently. 2-1 kind of picks itself don't you think?  With those Madrid clean sheets recently, they will be tough to score against and should simply " score one more" than Sociedad.
  • If Sociedad score first, then, lay them in the expectation of Atl Madrid scoring.
  • We have quite a high % of 0-0's at halftime for the away side, but only 1 for Atl Madrid. Lay the 0-0 halftime score late on I'd say.
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7:30pm - Dortmund v Hoffenheim  - 1.44 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the German Cup.
  • Dortmund won the 2 head to heads in 2014.

Dortmund

  • Only 4 losses in 17 matches but lost 2 of their last 3 matches , albeit v Juventus and Bayern Munich
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 home matches, the last 2 v Juventus and Bayern Munich.
  • Only 1 loss in 21 cup matches was against Bayern Munich.
  • Only 1 loss in 12 homes was a 1-2 v Werder in 2009.

Hoffenheim

  • Only 2 losses in 8 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 5 matches. Typical tough to read Hoff.
  • Only 3 wins in 13 away matches.
  • Since 2013, only Wolfsburg have beaten Hoff 2-3.
  • 3-2-9-5-2 scored in their last 5 cup matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins, 3 against lower league sides.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Tough to quantify Hoff's cup efforts , being as they are against lower league sides.
  • The betting market tends to be accurate with these 2. When Dortmund are sub 1.5 they tend to win. When Hoff are under evens, they tend to perform well, so faith in the market today?
  • Do note Dortmund have failed to score in 3 at home , albeit the last 2 against Juventus and Bayern Munich. I expect Dortmund to end this sequence at home today. Do remember this is the cup.
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745pm - Fiorentina v Juventus  - 2.34 away

Standout stats

  • This is a match of context. This is the 2nd leg of a Coppa Italia match where Fiorentina won 1-2 away at Juventus on 5th March 2015.
  • If away goals count, then Juventus would need to win 0-2 to go through in the easiest manner possible. A look at Juventus away in the Coppa Italia though is not good viewing. LDLLWLLW ( W=Win, L=Loss, D=Draw)

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • if Juventus are up for the cup, then a 0-2 will suffice today. If Fiorentina score first, things get complicated.
  • I would draw your attention towards Juventus away in this competition and that is not the form of a team who are " up for the cup". A speculative lay of Juventus if they lead 0-1 despite their need for a 0-2. They lost 2-1 on 4 occasions away in their last 8 away cup matches.
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7:45pm - Aston Villa v QPR  - 2.18 home

Standout Stats

  • 3-2 Villa and 2-0 QPR in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is this is 17th v 19th. If Villa win today, they place Sunderland and Hull firmly in the relegation race. If QPR win today, they could be equal on points with Hull and Aston Villa.
  • I am not sure what research will accomplish with these relegation six pointers. It's that part of the season! Let's see though.

Aston Villa

  • No draw in 11 matches and in 5 at home
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home
  • 9 losses and 2 wins in their last 11 matches.
  • Only 1 home win in 8 matches. Villa under Robin of Sherwood threatened to show some consistent goalscoring with a run of 1-1-2 scored at home, but they failed to score in their last home match.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 11 matches.
  • Against 11th and lower at home, Villa are unbeaten with 3 0-0's and 3 2-1 wins. Talk about extremes!
  • Have conceded 8 goals in the last 1/4 hour of home matches.

QPR

  • No draw in 11 matches and 15 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • 9 losses and 2 wins in their last 11 matches is identical to Aston Villa.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 7 away matches and beat West Brom 1-4 last match.
  • 2 wins away v 14th and 15th. All wins this season have come against 14th and lower in the league.
  • No 0-0 away
  • 33 goals conceded away, 19 came first half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Form wise, well Aston Villa will either have a 0-0 or a 2-1 win today. Given that both teams avoid draws, I think we can opt for both teams scoring and perhaps a 1-2, 2-1 scoreline.
  • Both sides have identical recent ( poor) form.
  • Tough to call as this is a relegation six pointer.
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7:45pm - Dundalk v Shelbourne  - 1.22 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a League cup match in Ireland between Premiership and 1st division.
  • Yesterday's market was very accurate.Cork City won despite 10 men, Galway came from behind to win, and were backable at a tasty 2-14 a goal down - the market got that wrong, and Shamrock, same odds as Dundalk are today, won 0-2.
  • I expect a comfortable enough evening without doing any research. A 2 goal win for Dundalk is expected.
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9pm - Levante v Sevilla  - 1.85 away

Standout stats

  • Bogey side alert - Levante are unbeaten in the last 7 head to heads, drawing 4 of the last 6. The market edges things towards Sevilla today, based I suppose on superior season-long form.
  • this is 15th v 5th in La Liga

Levante

  • no draw in 11 matches and in 5 at home.
  • conceded in all of those matches.
  • against the top 9 at home, Levante have failed to score in defeats to 1st, 2nd, 6th, 8th, 9th. They did beat 4th and 7th at home , the only wins v top 12 at home
  • 3 wins in their last 4 home matches , Levante have scored and conceded in all bar 1 win this season.
  • only 1 0-0 at home
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home ( 57% )
  • conceded 16 of their 24 home goals in the 2nd half.

Sevilla

  • 4 match winning streak
  • no draw in 14 away matches
  • scored in their last 9 away matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • no away draw. all defeats away from home have come against teams higher in the league than Levante.
  • 17 of 23 goals scored 2nd half away

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Lay the late draw, these 2 seem to avoid draws. It means also laying any late 0-0.
  • this could be a 2nd half match. Levante have been conceding and Sevilla scoring in 2nd halves.
  • If you think Levante are the bogey team because of their head to heads, lay Sevilla if they score first.
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9pm - Eibar v Malaga  - 2.5 away

I won't research this match as the favourite is priced at 2.5. This suggests that this match could go either way and there are no reasonable angles or "sides to take".