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DRT Daily Tips Bulletin, July 4, 2017

There is no rhyme or reason regarding the time-table for today's Wimbledon matches. I have taken the matches from today's Betfair Coupon. See you @drtclub Twitter when tennis starts. Tennis trading will end 2:30pm today. I apologise. I have to pick up my nephews from school while my parents are away.

Football

17:00 - Trepca 89 v Vikingur Gota - 1.46 Trepca

  • 2-1 Viking from the UEFA Champions League. Trepca have the away goal.
  • Trepca need just a 1-0 in order to qualify. The market expects them to do it.
  • Kosovo v Faroe Islands here so 2 teams we really know nothing about.

17:00 - FCI Tallinn v Hibernians - 1.82 FCI

  • Estonia v Malta in this Champions League 2nd leg match.
  • 2-0 to Hibernians from the first leg.
  • Again I really don;t know these teams at all. It must be advantage Hibernians. If Hibs score, FCI will need to score 3 goals to get through.
  • FCI Tallin must lead 2-0 here in order to stay alive.

18:30 - Europa FC v The New Saints - 2.5 Europa FC

  • 1-2 Europa from the first leg sees clear advantage to the home side today. 2 away goals v a strong 1.4 odds The New Saints from the first leg.
  • The market obviously got that wrong and has reacted by remaining neutral here with a 2.5 odds quote.
  • The New Saints need 2 goals. Because Europa scored 2 away, The New Saints with a single goal will be equal at 2-2 but not on the away goal rule.

19:30 - FC Santa Coloma v Alashkert - 1.66 Alashkert

  • Andorra v Armenia in this 2nd leg Champions League match.
  • 1-0 Alashkert from the first leg and no away goal was conceded. If Alashkert score today, FC Santa will need to score 3 goals.
  • This is an FC Santa who has scored 0-0-0-1-0-0-0 in their most recent Champions League matches.
  • Alashkert had a 0-0 v FC Santa Coloma away in June 2016 so 0-0 may be inplay today and it will do for Alashkert over 2 legs.
  • Back 0-0 pre match?

19:30 - La Fiorita v Linfield - 1.44 Linfield

  • 89th minute 1-0 for Linfield first leg of this Champions League match hardly screams out that they are backable away from home at 1.44 odds.
  • San Marino v Northern Ireland.
  • This could be another match where we back 0-0 pre match and trade out as late as we dare in the hope this match sees 2 teams struggling in front of goal.
  • Linfield remember need 1 goal in order to effectively qualify as La Fiorita are yet to score in 3 matches in the Champions League

Tennis

Arina Rodionova v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkov - 1.17 Pav

  • 198th v 16th.
  • No recent head to heads.
  • Arina is a 100K player. Pav's recent form is poor. Round of 64 Roland Garros, Round of 16 at Mallorca and Eastbourne.
  • Pav though was a quarter finalist at Wimbledon last year and only undone by Serena Williams.
  • We expect a Pav win. Poor recent form but she plays a 100K player and really should not be troubled.

Mona Barthel v Coco Vandeweghe - 1.3 Coco

  • 81st v 23rd.
  • No head to heads.
  • Coco retired last match v Muguruza - is she injured? Note that if trading this match.
  • Barthel lost to Kuznetzova in Eastbourne but we cannot know the form strongly as the previous match saw her opponent retire.
  • Coco beat Johanna Konta at Birmingham but that cloud re possible injury. Konta form was franked by Konta win yesterday.
  • If Coco is on form do not expect a 2-0 loss. If there is a niggle, lay Coco if she wins first set.

Kiki Bertens v Sorana Cirstea - 1.85 Sorana - Beefy a clay master but grass court is questionable

  • 20th v 66th.
  • 0-3 Cirstea is interesting in head to heads.
  • Beefy Curtains was superb in the clay court season but there is a hint that she hates grass. Out in the round of 32 last 2 grass court warm-up events. We really did make hay with Beefy during the clay court season but it seems she is not reliable on grass.
  • She reached the 3rd round Wimbledon last year, stopped by Halep.
  • Cirstea will be a familiar name as she lost easily to Johanna Konta at Eastbourne.
  • She was unlucky enough to meet Kvitova last year first round.
  • Note head to heads. Note Bertens clay court season (superb) and her 3rd round last year. This suggests what will be a speculative one - lay Cirstea if Cirstea wins the first set.

Juan Martin Del Potro v Thanasi Kokkinakis - 1.29 Juan - No grass pre Wimbledon for Del. Thanasi on comeback trail beats Raonic at Eastbourne

  • 33rd v Thanasi who returns to the ATP.
  • My tactics with Thanasi has been to lay his opponents based on them not having a clue about him given his recent absences. It worked when Thanasi took first set v Nishikori and beat Youzhny.
  • Del Potro has been conspicuous by his grass court absence pre Wimbledon. With a player of his history, an injury niggle cannot be ruled out.
  • Thanasi beat Milos Raonic on grass at Eastbourne in 2 tie breakers and lost to solid yardstick Medvedev (twice now on grass).
  • Here's a list of the players Del Potro has lost to recently - Raonic, Djokovic, Djokovic, Federer, Harrison (Del did not play), Djokovic, Elias, Murray.
  • It takes a good un to stop the Argie.
  • This is another of those intriguing matches. Thanasi's beating of Raonic. Was that more a case of Raonic preserving himself or true form?
  • I think we will see odds fluctuations here. 1.29 may be low off the bat for Del.

Kyle Edmund v Alexander Ward - 1.14 Edmund

  • 42nd v 473rd. Both Brits.
  • No head to heads.
  • 4 setter v 160th for Ward gets him here.
  • Poor prep for Kyle in Queens and Nottingham going out first rounds.
  • Rankings should see Kyle clear.

Mischa Zverev v Bernard Tomic - 1.83 Tomic

  • 35th v 41st.
  • Tomic won easily in Nottingham in 2 straight sets this year on grass. What to make of it?
  • Tomic will lose to the top 20 player such as Monfils, Gasquet, Berdych but will be competitive near his own ranking.
  • I would lay any Zverev lead here as obviously Tomic has his mark and this is a player Tomic should play well against until he loses to a better ranked player.

Richard Gasquet v David Ferrer - 1.14 Gasquet

  • 23rd v 32rd . Ferrer is moving the wrong way rankings wise. Gasquet tends to tread water.
  • 3-9 Ferrer in head to heads.
  • Last head to head was 2015.
  • Gasquet has had a good warm up session on grass. He reached semi finals at Halle, and a semi final at Nottingham.
  • Ferrer was his usual terrier self, as shown in his last 3 matches, albeit losses. He has always won a set including a 5 setter at Roland Garros v an admittedly inform Lopez, a 3 setter v Haase, and 3 setter v Sugita.
  • I would lay Gasquet if Gasquet leads 2-0. If 3-0 Gasquet set betting is short enough, lay it. We will always get an effort from Ferrer the Terrier without him necessarily winning the match.

Angelique Kerber v Irina Falconi - 1.16 Kerber

  • 2nd v 164th. You'd have thought the odds would be shorter.
  • Kerber's sole grass court warm up saw her halted in 2 straight sets by Konta. Kerber should not be winning Wimbledon this year.
  • Irina is a qualifier who should not land a blow. Watchout for any surprises!

Agnieszka Radwanska v Jelena Jankovic - 1.45 Aggy - 2 Arthur Daley players worth avoiding

  • 8th v 55th.
  • 7-2 head to heads Aggy win.
  • 9 losses in 11 matches for Jelena Jankovic. She certainly is not a player to place any trust in.
  • Aggy's recent loss to Lauren Davis 7-6 and 6-1 2nd set is an absolute headscratcher at Eastbourne.
  • This is a match I don't like. 2 untrustworthy sorts here. Let's be choosy this Wimbledon.

Ekaterina Alexandrova v Garbiñe Muguruza - 1.26 Garbine - What was with Mug's mug match last time?

  • 88th v 6th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Ekaterina is generally a peripheral tour player.
  • Garbine a semi finalist in Birmingham, yet like Aggy suddenly put in a shocker in Eastbourne losing 6-0, 6-1. What on earth happened there?
  • This again clouds what should have been straightforward research and an obvious favouring of Muguruza.

Katie Boulter v Christina McHale - 1.19 McHale - McHale retired last match. No injury niggles?

  • 280th v 44th.
  • No head to heads.
  • McHale retired in her last match, at Eastbourne so a worry re injury. No cause given for the retirement.
  • Katie is a 60K and 100K player so we cannot quantify form.
  • Another match where McHale should win easily but is there an injury in the back of her mind? Might be a value lay if she wins the first set.

Gael Monfils v Daniel Brands - 1.16 Monfils - Gael Eastbourne final the perfect tune up.

  • 17th v 208th.
  • Head to heads from 2013/2014 season see Monfils consistent favourite but losing 3 of those (albeit one was a retirement).
  • Great prep for Monfils in Eastbourne reaching the Final should see him worthy favourite today.
  • Brands needed 5 sets to see off 146th in qualifiers to get here.
  • Anything other than a Monfils win would be a shock.

Martin Klizan v Novak Djokovic - 1.04 Novak

  • Nice Eastbourne win for Novak. He must be layed though at 1.05 as I tend to do with these shorties. 'the only way is up!!'

Lara Arruabarrena v Anett Kontaveit - 1.24 Anett - Lara should not win 2-0

  • Both familiar names.
  • 61st v 73rd. On rankings, the market should be a lot tighter. Note that!
  • No head to heads.
  • Anett's sole grass warm up was at 's-Hertogenbosch where she won the Tournament!
  • Lara took 21st and 27th to 3 sets at Eastbourne but lost easily to the World Number 1.
  • With that in mind, we lay Lara if Lara wins the first set. This you feel is a match which could be tighter than a 1.24 favourite's odds suggests. Dare we lay Anett at the off or can we simply take the position of laying the first set winner?

Jeremy Chardy v Tomas Berdych - 1.19 Berdych - 3 tie breakers when these 2 met 2015 here. Could be fun.

  • 70th v 13th.
  • A 4 setter Berdych win in 2015 was tight.The last 3 sets were tie breakers.
  • It is 4-0 head to heads Berdych.
  • Berdych has had enough of that fecker Feliciano. Lopez beat him in Stuttgart and Queens in his pre Wimbledon tune up. A 3 set loss to 79th joins the ranks of ' what the feck?' results such as Thiem in Turkey, Aggy and Muguruza recent capitulations.
  • At Stuttgart and Queens, Lopez also beat Chardy!
  • I think Berdych's odds are far too short here today. I would want to lay him at around 1.1 in play if the odds get there. Chardy will give him a run I am sure.

Grigor Dimitrov v Diego Schwartzman - 1.1 Dimitrov - Solid Queens run for Grigor should see him win here.

  • 12th v 34th.
  • 2 consecutive 3 setters in head to heads (first to 2 sets).
  • Good run at queens for Grigor ending v Lopez.
  • Expect an easy win for Grigor. I would be happy to back him at 1.5 or higher.

Jack Sock v Christian Garin - 1.16 Sock - No grass court this year Sock. A worry?

  • 15th v 194th.
  • No head to heads.
  • No grass court play this year for Sock -rankings should see him clear. 3rd round for him last year, going out to Raonic.

James Ward v Marcos Baghdatis - 1.26 Baggy - 2 consecutive retirements Baggy - injury concerns see a lay?

  • 624th v 60th.
  • 15 losses in 16 matches for Ward now makes him opposable if leading sets in this match.
  • Baggy has retired twice in successive grass court events. If you fancy a short odds lay, 1.27 may be worth it if he retires again. Clearly there is an issue. BUT clearly Ward is very limited at the moment.

Dominic Thiem v Vasek Pospisil - 1.42 Thiem - Thiem v 264th  - LOST! What's up with the Austrian master? A blip?

  • The odds say it all. The market is in ' what the feck?' mode again with Thiem's loss to some 264th ranked player in Turkey on grass. I have my suspicions this was a prior engagement he had promised to promote. He was the only top 30 player there.
  • Thiem was majestic on clay but out in the round of 16 in Halle to 46th and lost to 264th in Antalya. If Vasek is 64th in the world, I will back him! Numerology rules! Vasek is actually 112th in the world.
  • Thiem won in 3 on clay in 2015 (first to 2 sets).
  • Another match clouded by out of the blue dire capitulation by a World Number 9. Clearly if anywhere near top form, Thiem will have Vasek for breakfast.
  • Thiem was only a second rounder last year at Wimbledon.
  • Vasek was out in 4 sets first round last year at Wimbledon.
  • Thiem I would lay at odds of about 1.15 today in the hope there is something amiss with him. Although if true form were shown, he could do a 3-0.

Alexandr Dolgopolov v Roger Federer - 1.03 Fed - Must lay 1.04 shots

  • I always lay at 1.04 odds. Dolgo is an enigma. He can have some masterful matches but does meet the master today.

Adrian Mannarino v Feliciano Lopez - 1.22 Lopez - Grass court master Lopez of late

  • Basic research here. You know if you have read my tennis trading how solid Lopez is on grass. He will not be losing 3-0 today.
  • I expect Lopez to win.

Taylor Fritz v John Isner - 1.4 Big John - Could be tie breaker city!

  • 130th v 24th.
  • Isner won in the sole head to head 2016.
  • Tayler has had to get through qualifying to get here and does play a smattering of Challenger tour events.
  • 4-3-4 sets for John in the French Open suggests with his tie breakers there is always a glimmer of hope that the opponent can take it.
  • He lost to Cilic in Stuttgart and Gasquet in Nottingham so warm ups cut short.
  • I expect an eventual Big John win and would be happy backing him at 1.8 or higher.

Kristina Mladenovic v Pauline Parmentier - 1.09 Mlad

  • 19th v 64th.
  • Mlad loves a quarter final. Quarters at French Open, and on Grass at 's-Hertogenbosch and Birmingham.
  • Odds justified here. Solid player who tends to go deep into tournaments. Only a first rounder last year!
  • Pauline is a serial 1st round exiter on grass.

Milos Raonic v Jan-Lennard Struff - 1.13 Raonic

  • 6th v 52nd.
  • No head to heads.
  • Little in the way of a warm up on grass for Raonic this year. he went to Queens and lost to Thanasi Kokkanakis in 2 tie breakers. No panic really as tie breakers can be at the toss of a coin. We saw with Ivo Karlovic yesterday how a tie breaker player can allow his opponent in.
  • Finals in London and Wimbledon last year for Milos and only Murray beat him on grass.
  • Struff has lost to Pouille in his last 2 grass court tournaments. Pouille is 14th in the rankings.
  • Expect a Raonic win here. Struff has taken sets off Berdych and Alexander Zverev albeit on clay.
  • First round Wimbledon last year for Struff. I don't expect him to land a blow. React if otherwise!

Gilles Simon v Nicolas Jarry - 1.29 Simon

  • 30th v 201st.
  • No head to heads.
  • Jarry got through qualifiers to get here. He is predominantly a Challenger Tour player.
  • Jarry gave Khachanov a 4 set test at Roland Garros on clay, so watch out for a potential stubborn match today v Simon who is expected to win.
  • In his grass court warm up, Simon lost to Lopez and Khachanov so little to gain there.

Andrey Rublev v Stefano Travaglia - 1.24 Rublev

  • 117th v 225th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Stefano is largely a Challenger Tour player.
  • Both players have gone through the qualifier process to get here.
  • Rublev been 200th and 259th in the qualifiers. Enough to expect a win today?
  • I personally would not be backing a 117th ranked player at 1.24 odds but the market expects.

Xinyun Han v Zarina Diyas - 1.16 Diyas

  • 118th v 187th.
  • Diyas has won 0-3 in head to heads despite the rankings differential.
  • Diyas recently won the Manchester 100K grass tournament.
  • 2 players not household names but a market which is very one sided, as are head to heads. Stick with Diyas?

Karolina Pliskova v Evgeniya Rodina - 1.11 Pliskova

  • 3rd v 75th.
  • Aussie Open 2015 2 set win for Pliskova. First set was a 7-5. I could do with a tight first set as I would be keen on backing Pliskova at higher odds.
  • Pliskova won at Eastbourne and reached the semi finals at Roland Garros. Good luck Rodina.

Evgeny Donskoy v Alexander Zverev - 1.09 Alexander

  • 96th v 21st.
  • No head to heads.
  • Donskoy is largely a Challenger Tour player.
  • A great warm up for Alexander, with a semi final at 's-Hertogenbosch  and a Final at Halle.
  • Final last year at Halle and 3rd round Wimbledon. Zverev should go a little deeper in this Tournament so expect the win today and react if Donskoy offers resistance.

Tsvetana Pironkova v Sara Errani - 1.24 Pironkova

  • 74th v 110th.
  • 2-2 in head to heads and 1-1 in 2016 head to heads.
  • Pironkova lost to Halep at Eastbourne.
  • Quarters, First Round Wimbledon, Quarters, First Round Wimbledon for Pironkova. Limited when it comes to the Grand Slam.
  • 2 consecutive 2nd rounds at Wimbledon for Errani. I might be cheeky here and lay Pironkova if Pironkova wins the first set.

Ons Jabeur v Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.39 Kuz

  • 109th v 9th and interesting that a top 10 player is not shorter in the market.
  • No head to heads.
  • Jabeur got through qualifiers.
  • Svetlana has lost to 11th and 3rd recently and I would expect her to over come Jabeur. I do not expect a Jabeur 2-0 win.

Janko Tipsarevic v Jared Donaldson - 1.37 Janko

  • 71st v 78th. Tight rankings - not a tight market.
  • No head to heads.
  • 2nd round, 1st round Wimbledon for Janko last year.
  • No Wimbledon last year for Jared.
  • 4-3-3-3-2-3 sets recently for Janko. He has tended to lose a set in his recent events.
  • Not a match to focus on today. Plenty more readable matches.