It's newsletter week this week so I am busier than a Donald Trump spin doctor. Today and tomorrow sees top flight football and if I am still online later, I will be tweeting only @drtclub from 19:00 for the Bundesliga. Hoff v Bayern is a great start!

The English Championship looks tough this evening so my research focus is on the Europe-wide top flight leagues. I have left the Championship as it is so competitive but will play the 'reactive' game today with these and the European cup matches this evening.

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17:30 - Excelsior v Utrecht - 2.12 Utrecht

• 2 consecutive 2-1 Utrecht wins in head to heads.
• This is 15th v 4th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Excelsior 100% stats

• 3 points gives them breathing space from the relegation places.
• No win v top 6 home or away.
• Not beaten a top 6 side.
• No 0-0.

Excelsior other stats

• Score draws in 9 of their last 15 matches and in 3 of their last 4 matches.
• Only 1 clean sheet.
• Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 home matches.
• Scored and conceded in the 6 home matches v top 9.
• 15 goals scored home first 15 mins of matches.

Utrecht 100% stats

• Unbeaten away v 10th and lower.
• Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.

Utrecht other stats

• Only 3 losses since 15th October.
• Failed to score in only 3 matches.

Conclusions

• On form, Utrecht should not lose today. Solid away v 10th and lower, unbeaten v 13th and lower and only 3 defeats since 15th October, score draw worse case.
• I mention score draw given Excelsior have had 9 in 15 matches. So lay Excelsior if Excelsior score first.
• Both teams to score is an obvious by-product of Excelsior's score draws.

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18:30 - Athletic Bilbao v Espanyol - 1.64 Ath Bilbao

• 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
• This is 7th v 9th in the Spanish La Liga.

Ath Bilbao 100% stats

• Unbeaten at home outside of the top 2.

Ath Bilbao other stats

• No draw in 10 matches.
• 4 wins in their last 5 home matches.
• Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 10 of their last 11 matches.
• 10 wins in 13 matches outside the top 2 at home.
• 18 of 26 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Espanyol 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 10 side away.

Espanyol other stats

• Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
• No win in 4 away.

Conclusions

• On form Ath Bilbao should be confident today and at their best score 2/3 goals.
• Both teams could score and I would oppose any Espanyol lead for the above reason.
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score.

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19:00 - Hoffenheim v Bayern Munich - 1.65 Bayern

• 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
• This is 3rd v 1st in the German Bundesliga.

Hoffenheim 100% stats

• Unbeaten at home.
• Unbeaten at halftime at home.
• 2-2 in both top 4 home matches.

Hoffenheim other stats

• 4 consecutive home wins.
• Failed to score in only 2 matches.
• Scored in their last 12 and last 11 at home.
• Scored 2 goals in 5 of 6 matches v top 9 at home.
• 10 goals scored at home last 15 mins of home matches.

Bayern 100% stats

• Not played top 3 away yet but lost away to 4th.
• No 0-0.

Bayern other stats

• 13 wins and 2 draws in their last 15 matches.
• Have not conceded 2 goals in any of their last 10 matches away.
• 5 consecutive clean sheets.
• Failed to score only once.
• 9 goals scored away last 15 mins.

Conclusions

• An intriguing match in prospect between 2 solid teams this season. Bayern are likely more vulnerable away from home but we don't know how they play v the best. Not yet met top 3 away.
• I will be cheeky here and back 2-2 given Hoff have scored 2 goals in 5 matches v top 9. It is speculative as this could as easily see Bayern's solid defence on top.
• Hoff are layable if scoring first if you want a simpler angle, as per the 1-1 earlier this season.

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19:00 - Werder Bremen v Schalke - 2.52 Schalke

• 1-3 Werder and 3-1 Schalke in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 12th v 9th in the German Bundesliga.

Werder Bremen 100% stats

• Only 3 points from relegation yet on the cusp of a top 10 place!
• No 0-0.
• No over 4.5 goals at home.

Werder Bremen other stats

• 5 wins and a draw in their last 6 matches.
• Failed to score in only 2 matches.
• Only 4 clean sheets and failed to score only twice - that's why I like BTTS with Werder.
• 8 2-1 scorelines at home.
• 10 both teams to score matches.
• Only 1 win at home v top 10.

Schalke 100% stats

• Not led at halftime away.
• Not beaten a top 10 side away - yet to meet 11th and 12th away.

Schalke other stats

• Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
• Only failed to score in 3 matches since 21st September.
• Scored in their last 7 away.
• 2 wins away were 0-1 only.

Conclusions

• Normally as you know we go both teams to score with Werder. I guess this still holds true given the whopping 10 matches where this has occured at home and the 8 2-1 scorelines.
• The latter leads me to suggest 2-1/1-2 as a natural opener trading wise? Schalke are less proficient away with the both teams to score though.
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market is far more reliable for Werder away but this season they have hardly let us down in this regard.

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19:00 - Dortmund v Hamburg - 1.37 Dortmund

• 3-0 and 2-5 Dortmund in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 4th v 14th in the German Bundesliga.

Dortmund 100% stats

• Undefeated at home.
• Not conceded in both halves at home.

Dortmund other stats

• Scored in their last 17 matches.
• 4 consecutive home wins.
• Only 1 0-0 all season.
• 7 1-0 wins at halftime at home.
• Led at halftime in 9/12 home matches.

Hamburg other stats

• Only 1 loss in 8 matches was v Bayern.
• Only 1 away win v top 17 was v Leipzig.
• Failed to score in 6 of 8 away matches v top 10.
• 18 of 26 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Dortmund are unbeaten at home and although Hamburg beat Leipzig and drew with Hoff, they have had trouble actually scoring. I think Dortmund will continue unbeaten and could even lead at halftime as they tend to do at home so note that if 0-0 after 20 minutes.
• If Dortmund have not scored by halftime remember they have a goal in each of their last 17 matches.
• Hamburg are in reasonable form albeit most wins were at home lately. They have a strong concession rate 2nd half so note that.

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19:00 - FC Koln v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.5 FC Koln

• Koln have won the last 3 home head to heads.
• This is 6th v 7th in the German Bundesliga.

FC Koln 100% stats

• Unbeaten v 2nd and lower at home.
• No home match with exactly 4 goals.

FC Koln other stats

• Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches.
• In 6 of their last 7 matches, at least 2 goals have been seen before halftime.
• 13 of 19 home goals scored 1st half.

Frankfurt 100% stats

• Have lost the 4 away matches played v top 8 teams without scoring.
• No over 3.5 goals match away.

Frankfurt other stats

• Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
• Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away matches.

Conclusions

• The pre-match odds cannot split the teams. On form, Koln are better at home v a Frankfurt unable to score in 6 of their last 7 matches and 5 of their last 6 away matches.
• But why the 2.5 odds? That's the niggle.
• Lay Frankfurt if Frankfurt score first. Having trouble scoring 1 goal, they should have greater trouble scoring a 2nd.

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19:45 - Watford v West Brom - 2.64 Watford

• 3-1 West Brom in the last head to head.
• This is 12th v 8th in the English Premiership.

Watford 100% stats

• All home defeats v top 10.

Watford other stats

• Only 5 clean sheets.
• Only 3 wins in 14 matches.
• Scored and conceded in 11 at home.

West Brom 100% stats

• Unbeaten away v 13th and lower.

West Brom other stats

• Only 3 defeats in 12 matches.
• 7 0-0's at halftime away.
• All away defeats v 11th and higher.

Conclusions

• West Brom have failed to score in 3 of 4 matches but might do today. Both teams could score.
• Not a match for strong trading angles, as the 2.64 odds can attest.

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19:45 - Burnley v Stoke - 2.46 Burnley

• Another match where I would caution you re the odds. 2.46 suggests the market cannot split these teams. Can we?
• 0-0 and 2-0 Stoke in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 15th v 9th in the English Premiership.

Burnley 100% stats

• No 0-0 at home.
• Unbeaten at halftime at home.
• Wins at home v 7th-16th inclusive.

Burnley other stats

• No win in 7 matches.
• Failed to score last 2 matches.
• Lost last home match v Spurs but usually solid at home.
• 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
• All defeats bar 1 at home were v top 6 teams.
• 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Stoke 100% stats

• All wins v 12th and lower home and away.

Stoke other stats

• Tough recent away fixture list v Chelsea, Liverpool, West Brom, Tottenham, Man City and a rejuvenated Leicester City. An easier assignment today, you feel.
• Failed to score last 4 away but as I say, put into context as above.

Conclusions

• It is not a coincidence that when a favourite is at odds of 2.4 or higher, it is hard to make an argument for one side above the other and thus find a trading angle.
• Note Stoke do ALL of their winning v teams 12th and lower so are statistically more likely to beat a Burnley away than the recent teams they have played.
• In Burnley we have a home team who have beaten all teams 7th-16th inclusive (where Stoke reside).
• As you see, I can make a cogent argument for either side. A lowering of the sights for both teams today. If pushed, I would favour Burnley today on these points 1) all home defeats bar 1 v top 6, 2) wins v mid third teams (where Stoke reside), 3) Stoke away v 13th,14th and 16th did not win. Playing 15th today.

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19:45 - Leicester v Sunderland - 1.46 Leicester

• How to turn a team around? Get the Great Bard on board. Mr. Shakespeare hath got Leicester motoring with 4 (sooth) consecutive wins.
• 2-1 Sunderland earlier in the season.

Leicester 100% stats

• Focus only on matches under the Great Bard.
• 4 games managed and 4 wins mostly in the Ides of March.
• Leicester have scored 2+ goals in those 4 wins, conceding in 3 of the wins.

Sunderland 100% stats

• No 0-0 away.

Sunderland other stats

• Failed to score in 7 of their last 8 matches.
• No draw in 12 away.
• Only 1 away draw.
• 70% of halftime away scores either 0-0 or 1-0.
• Opponents have scored first in 12/14 away.

Conclusions

• If you don't score you don't win. Sunderland cannot score. Leicester cannot stop scoring. 11 goals in 4 matches with the Great Bard as manager.
• Logic points the way of the revived Foxes. Note Sunderland did only lose 1-0 to the 2 sides either side of Leicester away.
• On form, 2 goals is a possible for Leicester.
• Lay any late draw and hope Sunderland keep avoiding draws.

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19:45 - Aberdeen v Inverness - 1.26 Aberdeen

• 1-1 and 1-3 Aberdeen in recent head to heads.
• This is 2nd v 12th in the Scottish Premier League.

Aberdeen 100% stats

• 3 matches remain this season. Not conceded in both halves at home.

Aberdeen other stats

• 11 wins and 2 defeats last 13 matches.
• 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
• 7 consecutive home wins.
• Only 1 home defeat.
• Only 1 loss was v 1st at home.

Inverness 100% stats

• No 0-0 away.

Inverness other stats

• 3 consecutive 1-1 draws.
• No win in 9 away matches.
• Only 1 away win.
• 10 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.
• Not beaten a top 9 side away.

Conclusions

• Note we are at that part of the season when teams need the 3 points. This is a case in point for Inverness so we may see them play above themselves as they did with a recent home win v Rangers.
• Strong 2nd half bias so if 0-0 halftime, expect 2nd half goals.
• I would lay a late 1-1 and hope this sequence ends for Inverness.

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20:00 - Man Utd v Everton - 1.59 Man Utd

• 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
• This is 5th v 7th in the Premiership. Man Utd were similar odds v West Brom at home latest and that ended 0-0.

Man Utd 100% stats

• Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.
• Not lost to nil at home.
• Not conceded in both halves at home.

Man Utd other stats

• No defeat in 19 and in 13 at home.
• 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home meaning any win is either 1-0 or 2-0.
• 4 draws in 5 home matches.
• Draws at home v 6th, 8th and 9th and guess who they play today?
• Only 1 win at home v top 9 teams.

Everton 100% stats

• Not led at halftime away.
• Not beaten a top 4 team away.
• Conceded in all aways v top 12.

Everton other stats

• Last 2 aways were defeats v Tottenham and Liverpool.
• No win in 4 away.
• Failed to score in only 5 matches.
• 13 of 18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• If Everton score first, lay them. United not lost to nil at home.
• I am worried about another draw today for United. 0-0, 1-1 with any win likely to be tight. 1-0. United on form should not lose today and that is the simplistic trading angle.

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 20:30 - Atletico Madrid v Sociedad - 1.41 Atl Madrid

• Sociedad won the last head to head. Atl Madrid tend to win to nil at home.
• This is this is 3rd v 5th in the Spanish Primera Liga.

Atl Madrid 100% stats

• Unbeaten at home v teams below them.

Atl Madrid other stats

• 7 wins, a draw and a loss to Barcelona last 9 matches.
• 3-1-3-3 scored last 4 at home.

Sociedad 100% stats

• No away draw.
• All defeats away v top 8.
• No 0-0.

Sociedad other stats

• 3 wins last 4 away.
• Failed to score 2 of last 3.

Conclusions

• Sociedad won the earlier head to head but Madrid have improved at home and with 10 goals in 4 at home they should simply outscore a Sociedad who, remember, have lost away v top 8 this season.
• Lay any late 0-0.
• Lay any late draw and hope Sociedad continue to avoid draws at home.

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20:30 - Betis v Villarreal - 2.84 Villareal

• Another match where the odds simply put me off.
• 0-0 and 2-0 Villareal in recent head to heads.
• This is 14th v 6th in the Spanish La Liga.

Betis 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 6 sides this season.

Betis other stats

• Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
• Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8.
• Only 1 win v top 11 home and away.

Villareal 100% stats

• Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.
• Have not conceded 2 goals in an away match v 9th and lower.
• Not conceded in both halves.

Villareal other stats

• 3 wins in 4 aways but lost last away 1-0.
• 7 0-0's at halftime away.
• Only conceded 2 goals once in an away match.
• 7 of 8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• On form Betis are yet to beat the top 6 and have only 2 wins v top 12 so probability wise should not be winning.
• Villareal look defensively strong away, albeit that does not mean they win all. 2 defeats were 1-0 and the sole time they conceded 2, they lost 2-1.
• On that basis, lay Betis if Betis score first as Betis are unlikely to get a 2nd.
• Villareal have a chance today but as ever I am put off by the market who do not lean my way and insert Villareal as very cold 2.84 favs!