Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

An underwhelming football coupon today. I will do a quick review/preview video at DRT Facebook.

ENGLISH FA CUP

19:45 - Chelsea v Liverpool - 2.48 Chelsea

  • Good luck with your plays today. Will Liverpool tolerate a 2nd consecutive defeat (in all competitions?) 2 losses in recent matches in all competitions will crush the air of invincibility.
  • Team news key.
  • In-play stats or leave alone. We have learnt from the live chat webinars that just because it's a high profile match and on the telly it doesn't mean we have to trade the match ....unless we can engineer a trading angle either pre-match or in-play (red card, 0-0 at halftime, late draw, 2-2, etc).

20:00 - West Brom v Newcastle - 2.62 West Brom

  • As above. If I was Newcastle, I'd shake this competition off and look to survive the Premier League for another year.
  • Championship v Premier League. I am sure the same applies to West Brom insofar as they would prefer automatic promotion to the Premier League rather than a concerted cup run.

20:00 - Reading v Sheffield United - 1.83 Sheffield United

  • Championship v Premier League. Team news key again.
  • 2 consecutive home score draws for Reading in the FA Cup.
  • They last met a Premier League side in the FA Cup - a certain Man Utd - and lost convincingly.
  • In 6/7 matches in the FA Cup for Sheffield United there has been a one-goal-in-it result. 0-2 win v Millwall last match ended that sequence.
  • The market fancies the Blades. Will they play Sean Bean upfront? I like the away win v Millwall latest - it may be a sign that a Premier League hardened Sheff Utd might find another lower league side easier.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

19:45 - Hibernian v Hearts - 2.22 Hibernian

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Hibernian home matches against bottom-six teams and in 8/10 Hearts away matches against top-half teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 7/13 Hibernian home matches against bottom-six teams.

Hibernian - 6th

  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home since 28th September 2019.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 came v Rangers.
  • Only 2 home losses v 2nd and 12th! 1-2 loss and 0-2 win v Hearts this season.

Hearts - 12th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 2+ goals scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 2-0-3-5 goals conceded last 4 away matches.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Only 1 away win ....came v Hibs.

Conclusions

  • Hearts did beat Hibs away earlier this season but currently are on a run of 10 matches without a win and are conceding heavily in recent away matches.
  • Slight nod towards a Hearts who have only lost to Rangers recently.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:00 - Famalicao v Sporting Lisbon - 2.54 Sporting

  • Match outcome: Santa Clara have lost 5/5 home matches against Big Three teams while FC Porto have had W/W double results in 6/10 away matches. FC Porto have won 13/16 away matches against top half non-Big Three teams.
  • I wouldn't ordinarly research in full given the 2.54 odds but it is a quiet day.

Famalicao - 7th

  • Only 2 wins since 3rd November 2019.
  • Draw, Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 18% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the top 4 at home.
  • 1-2 win v Sporting last head to head.
  • 70% of home goals scored and 65% of home goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Sporting Lisbon - 4th

  • Only 2 wins in 6 matches away.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 27% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 2 losses and a draw away v the top 8.
  • All bar 2 wins this season came v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • 2 top 7 sides and a market that cannot split these 2 sides.
  • Only 2 wins since 3rd November 2019 for Famalicao makes them vulnerable? Only 2 wins in 6 for Sporting and all wins bar 2 coming v 9th and lower makes Sporting Vulnerable.
  • 2.54 looks right here doesn't it! Must win for Sporting to close the gap on Braga in 3rd place.