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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 31, 2017

As we have a full program of the Premiership, I'll do a Twitter live chat at 19:45. It looks a tough coupon on the face of it. I'll give it a read a couple of times before the live chat to embed the stats. See you @drtclub at 19:45.

19:45 - Bournemouth v Crystal Palace - 2.12 Bournemouth

1-2 Bournemouth and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Bournemouth 100% stats

Not lost to nil at home.
No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Bournemouth other stats

In 8 of the last 10 matches, at least one team has scored 3 goals.
3-3 and 2-2 in the last 2 home matches.
Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
2-3-0-3-3-2 goals conceded in recent home matches.
Scored and conceded in all matches v bottom 3 teams (where Palace reside).
7 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.

Palace 100% stats

No 0-0.
Conceded in every away match.
Not beaten a top 15 team away from home.

Palace other stats

12 defeats, 2 draws and a win in their last 15 matches.
Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
Only 1 win at halftime away.
12 first half goals scored and conceded away versus 30 goals second half.

Conclusions

On form, both teams are likely to score and Bournemouth not win.
Do not expect a 0-0 today.
I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Burnley v Leicester - 2.74 Leicester

0-1 and 3-0 Leicester wins in the last 2 head to heads.

Burnley 100% stats

No 0-0 at home.
Unbeaten at halftime at home.
All defeats at home by a single goal.
No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Burnley other stats

Only 5 clean sheets.
No draw in 9 at home and 12 overall.
4 consecutive home wins.
96% of points earned at home.
9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Scored first in 10/12 home.

Leicester 100% stats

No win away.
Conceded in all away matches v teams above them in the league.
All defeats away by 1 goal or 3 goals.
Not scored first away.
Not led at halftime away.

Leicester other stats

Only 5 clean sheets.
Failed to score in last 3.
Conceded 11 goals in the 15 mins before halftime away.

Conclusions

Unless patterns are broken, Burnley are the likelier first goal scorers and could lead at halftime.
96% of Burnley points and 83% of goals are scored at home so I do not expect a Burnley loss against a limp Leicester away.
If you want to delay, wait to 30th min then back Burnley in the halftime market.

19:45 - Swansea v Southampton - 2.34 Southampton

2 consecutive Southampton 1-0 wins in head to heads.

Swansea 100% stats

No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Swansea other stats

Only 3 draws.
Only 3 clean sheets.
Not beaten any top 14 team at home.
V top 12 at home, conceded 3 or 4 goals in all bar 2 matches (0 and 2 goals conceded).
10 goals conceded last 15 mins at home.

Southampton 100% stats

No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Southampton other stats

4 defeats in 5 matches.
Failed to score last 2 away.
0-0-0-1 scored v teams 14th and lower (Swans are 17th).

Conclusions

Swansea are highly likely to concede on home form but Saints have scored 0-0-0-1 away v lower positioned teams which is poor stuff.
On absolute form, Swansea will concede 3 goals at least.
A match in which teams are not pulling in the same direction.

19:45 - Arsenal v Watford - 1.25 Arsenal

Arsenal 100% stats

Unbeaten at halftime at home.
Unbeaten home and away v teams 8th and lower in the league.

Arsenal other stats

Only 3 defeats, 2 came away.
Failed to score only twice.
Undefeated in 10 home matches.
5 consecutive home wins.
Scored in their last 13 matches.

Watford 100% stats

All defeats v the top 5 conceding 2 goals at least.

Watford other stats

No win in 7 away, conceding in the last 6.

Conclusions

Top 5 a step too far for Watford. Expect at least 2 goals from Arsenal today.
Arsenal are yet to lose at halftime so if Watford score first and early, lay them in the halftime market.

19:45 - Sunderland v Tottenham - 1.4 Tottenham

Sunderland 100% stats

Not beaten any top 10 team.
No 0-0.

Sunderland other stats

6 defeats in last 8 matches.
Conceded 2 goals at least in each of last 5 matches.
Only 2 clean sheets.
10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Tottenham 100% stats

All wins v bottom 5 teams.

Tottenham other stats

6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
Failed to score only twice.
Scored 2 goals at least in each of their last 7 matches.
Conceded last 6 aways.
4 goals scored in 3 of 5 away matches v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

Lay any late 0-0.
Tottenham could score 2-4 goals today now Sunderland are in a pattern of conceding 2 goals.
Tottenham should outscore Sunderland.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based only on recent Sunderland matches where their typical 0-0 at halftime is absent.

19:45 - Middlesbrough v West Brom - 2.74 Middlesbrough

As with the Liverpool match, this is a match that has stumped the market makers.

Middlesbrough 100% stats

No win v the top 11 teams (West Brom are 8th).
No over 4.5 goals at home.

Middlesbrough other stats

Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
Failed to score in 5 of their last 8 matches.

West Brom 100% stats

No 0-0 away.
Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.

West Brom other stats

Only 1 draw in 14 matches.
3 wins in 4 matches.
Only 4 clean sheets.
Conceded last 10 away.
6 0-0's at halftime away.
All defeats bar 1 came v top 7.

Conclusions

On form both teams could score and West Brom not lose. I would certainly lay Middlesbrough if they score first.

19:45 - Hamilton v Inverness - 2.6 Inverness

2 consecutive 1-1 draws in the last 2 head to heads. This is the Scottish Premier League.
These 2 are bottom of the SPL.

Hamilton 100% stats

No 0-0 at home.
No home goal with exactly 4 goals.

Hamilton other stats

Only 2 wins.
Only 3 clean sheets.
No win in 12 matches.
Conceded in their last 10 matches.
2 1-1's with Inverness already this season.

Inverness 100% stats

No 0-0 away.
Not led at halftime away.

Inverness other stats

Only 2 clean sheets.
No win in 11 matches.
Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
81% of halftime scores are either 1-0 or 0-0 away.
9 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

If Inverness are to score it is more likely to be 2nd half so if Hamilton score first and first half, lay them in expectation of the typical Inverness 2nd half goal.
We should certainly not see a 0-0.
2 bottom sides really should not be trusted so note that!

19:45 - Ross County v Motherwell - 2.06 Ross County

Both teams have scored in 12 of the last 13 head to heads in the Scottish Premier league.

Ross County 100% stats

No 0-0 at home.
100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Ross County other stats

Conceded at least 2 goals in each of the last 3 matches.
Only 3 home wins.
Scored and conceded in all bar 3 at home.
Only 4 clean sheets.
Scored and conceded in their last 6 home.
13 goals conceded in the last 30 minutes of home matches.

Motherwell 100% stats

No 0-0.
100% over 1.5 goals away.
No over 3.5 goals away.

Motherwell other stats

Only 3 clean sheets.
Only 1 win in 8.
Conceded last 10 away.
11 of 15 goals conceded 2nd half away.
All losses bar 2 came v top 5 teams.

Conclusions

Both teams could score today. If low scoring coming to 60th minute, take a chance on 1 or 2 goals as these 2 concede very late goals.
Motherwell strictly should not be losing. Why? I am taken by the fact all bar 2 defeats were v top 5 teams in the league.

20:00 - Liverpool v Chelsea - 2.66 Liverpool

See Las Palmas v Valencia last night. A favourite at these odds is no favourite at all. The market is finding this a tough match in which to pick a team.

Liverpool 100% stats

Not lost to nil at home.
Not conceded in both halves at home.

Liverpool other stats

Failed to score in only 3 matches.
No win in 3.
Only 3 defeats and did lose their last match.
Scored in their last 7 at home.
Did beat Chelsea away.
2 goals a game tends to end playing top 6 at home with 1-0 and 0-0 v the 2 Manchesters.

Chelsea 100% stats

No 0-0.
All 3 losses v top 4 teams.
No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Chelsea other stats

Only 3 defeats.
15 wins in their last 16 matches.
Failed to score only twice.
No draw in 18 matches.

Conclusions

How significant is it that Chelsea's 2 away losses were to nil and v the top 3 (playing 4th today).
No win in 3 for Liverpool, you can bet that they will be looking to address this today.
Speculators might want to back 0-0 pre match and hope for a tight encounter as seen at Anfield v the 2 Manchesters. Trade out at halftime.