DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 2, 2018
If I am online tonight, I'll follow this small group of English matches via Twitter @drtclub.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
19:45 - Swansea v Tottenham - 1.39 Tottenham
- Tottenham tend to win head to heads but it was 0-0 last match.
- Won their last match but that was only one of 4 wins this season.
- Scored 2 goals at home in only 1 match so are vulnerable if they cannot score that 2nd goal v a top team.
- Only led once at halftime at home.
- 8 losses and a draw home and away v top 9 teams.
- 5 of 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- 4 wins in 5 matches.
- Only 1 win in 6 matches away.
- No away 0-0.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
- Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
- Draws at home v the bottom 2. Vulnerable today?
- Swansea are layable if scoring first. They rarely score 2 goals at home.
- Tottenham ended a poor run away from home with an emphatic win v Burnley and with 4 wins in 5 (only loss v Man City) the odds look right here.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Tottenham.
19:45 - West Ham v West Brom - 2 West Ham
- New management for both sides makes head to heads irrelevant. Pardew is the link between the 2 clubs.
West Ham (18th)
- 9 games in for Moyes.
- Only 2 wins under Moyes at home v Chelsea and away v Stoke.
- Only 1 home loss under Moyes was a 2-3. They have tended to play top teams at home and were ultra defensive.
- 3-2-3 goals scored in their last 3 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime under Moyes.
- Not met 14th-19th at home.
- 7 games under Pardew. Any patterns?
- No win under Pardew.
- 3 0-0's is a high percentage.
- 0-0-0-1-1-0-1 goals scored by West Brom. Their last goal v Arsenal was care of a very dubious 89th minute penalty.
- There seems to be a pattern with Moyes. Tight v the big guns, let loose v lesser lights. 3-2-3 goals scored in their last 3 matches for West Ham and that could threaten a West Brom side severely lacking up front.
- West Brom though have scored 1-1-0-1 in their last 4 matches, albeit their last goal highly dubious.
- On the form of 7-9 matches (which is too small a sample) I would side with West Ham today but acknowledge that both sides, with sights lowered, will see this as a winnable match.
- If West Ham's sudden goal flurry continues, that will be too much for West Brom. I would have to lay any West Brom lead.
19:45 - Southampton v C Palace - 2.08 Southampton
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- Only 4 wins.
- Unbeaten v 17th and lower home and away.
- Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower.
C Palace (17th)
- Only 1 loss in 10 matches was a 2-3 v Arsenal.
- 3 draws and a win away in the last 4 away matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- 1-1-0-0-0-1 goals conceded in recent away matches.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away.
- Scored in only 2 away matches.
- 10 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- 2 teams who could eye a positive result. I cannot get a solid angle into the match. Southampton are unbeaten v teams below them in the league. Palace are going through an unbeaten run away from home.
20:00 - Man City v Watford - 1.18 Man City
Man City (1st)
- Team changes last match halted the momentum for a 0-0 v Palace.
- 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- 9 consecutive home wins.
- Scored 2+ goals in each of those 9 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Only 1 win in 8 matches saw 6 defeats.
- Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- No 0-0 away.
- 6-4-4-3 goals conceded v top 4.
- Teams are vulnerable with the necessary squad rotation spoiling the momentum. Take away that factor, and focus on form only, Watford could be vulnerable to conceding 3/4 + goals today as they have v top 4.
- A simple angle. We know Watford have goals in them and they did score 2 goals away v Chelsea and Everton. I would still take on Watford even if they lead 0-2.
19:45 - Fulham v Ipswich - 1.57 Fulham
- 3 consecutive Fulham head to head wins.
- 3 consecutive home wins.
- 2-4-2 scored last 3 matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- 5 score draws and a loss at home v 13th and higher.
- 2 consecutive away defeats.
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- 6 1-0 defeats away at halftime.
- If Ipswich continue to struggle to score, they will lose today against a Fulham side now with 8 goals in 3 matches and 3 consecutive wins. I would lay Ipswich if Ipswich lead because of Fulham's strong scoring and score draw pattern v top teams.
19:45 - Wolves v Brentford - 1.8 Wolves
- 1-2 Wolves and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.
- Only 3 defeats, 2 came away.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- No defeat in 11 and in 10 at home.
- Unbeaten at halftime at home.
- All wins at home v 5th and lower.
- 9 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- 3 consecutive wins.
- Scored 2+ goals in 7 of their last 8 away matches.
- Failed to score away v top 7.
- An interesting match given Brentford are scoring 2 + goals in away matches recently. But they have failed to score v top 7 away.
- Brentford cannot be immediately dismissed here given their recent scoring especially away from home and given the Xmas period, Wolves cannot keep relying on 1-0 wins as happened in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Having scored 2 goals in 2 consecutive away matches, this might change for Wolves today?
20:00 - Reading v Birmingham - 2.08 Reading
- Reading have won the last 2 head to heads.
- 3 losses in 4 matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Only 1 0-0 at home.
- Unreadable home form. Wins v 5th, 14th and 19th. Beat Birmingham 0-2 away this season.
- 8 goals conceded at home came last 15 minutes.
- All 5 wins came at home.
- Conceded in each of their last 12 away matches, failing to win.
- Not a match which appeals to me. I guess that Birmingham's away form automatically defaults us towards Reading.