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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 2, 2021

I will do a review/preview video and Telegram through the day. There are a lot more leagues and competitions than are featured below.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

18:00 - Wolves v Arsenal - 2.2 Arsenal

Wolves - 14th

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • No win in 3 at home, 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Only 1 loss v 11th and lower.

Arsenal - 10th

  • Best judged on this recent run. 5 wins and 2 0-0's.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Conclusions

  • I think Arsenal may limit Wolves to 1 goal max today and that will be a solid foundation to work from.
  • lay any 0-0 2nd half. Arsenal are not showing the ultra recent form of a side 10th in the league.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Wolves home matches against middle-third teams and in 6/8 Arsenal away matches against middle-third teams. Wolves have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches.

18:00 - Sheff Utd v West Brom - 2.02 Sheff Utd

  • 2 wins in 4 matches now for Sheff Utd. Better judged on these last 4 matches.
  • Under Big Sam, West Brom have lost at halftime in all matches. They have only one win and have been conceding 2+ goals in all bar 1 match
  • Angles? Too tough to call. As with the West Brom v Fulham match, this match today will see both managers thinking they can get the win. West Brom came from behind to lead v Fulham.
  • Will West Brom lose at halftime again?
  • 1st half outcome: Sheffield Utd have drawn the first half in 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Sheffield Utd such matches. WBA have conceded first in 8/10 away matches.

20:15 - Man Utd v Southampton - 1.51 Man Utd

Man Utd - 2nd

  • Only 1 defeat since 7th November was a coupon buster v Sheffield United.
  • Scored in their last 4 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, 2 at fulltime.
  • Losses at home v 6th, 10th, 13th and 20th.
  • 2-3 win v Saints earlier saw Saints lead 2-0.

Southampton - 11th

  • 3 consecutive losses.
  • Only 1 win in 8 came v Liverpool.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss away.
  • 2-3-3- goals conceded away v the top 9.

Conclusions

  • If Southampton continue to concede 2 goals at least v the top 9, this can nip Man Utd's poor run in the bud. They have scored in their last 4 at home.
  • Saints led 2-0 last time these 2 met but lost the match.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • 1st goal: Southampton have scored first in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams and they have won 10/20 away matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 14/19 Man Utd home matches against middle-third teams.

20:15 - Newcastle v Crystal Palace - 2.7 Crystal Palace

  • I won't be researching this one.
  • From Football form labs...Match outcome: C Palace have won 10/15 away matches against bottom-six teams and they have scored first in 8/12 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 10/13 Newcastle home matches.
  • 2.7 the favourite  - too tough to call.
  • Match outcome: C Palace have won 10/15 away matches against bottom-six teams and they have scored first in 8/12 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 10/13 Newcastle home matches.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

18:00 - St Mirren v Hibernian - 2.4 Hibernian

  • 2.4 the favourite. Why? The market simply cannot discount this St Mirren side with 7 goals in 2 matches and the win v Celtic latest.
  • 0-3 loss and 1-0 loss for St Mirren v Hibs earlier this season. So you see the market's conundrum here. Twice St Mirren have lost to Hibs but then St Mirren are coming off the back of 7 goals in 2 matches.
  • Hibs are unbeaten away v 5th and lower and meet 6th today.
  • Angles? 2.4 the favourite tells you that the market does not know what to make of St Mirren's 7 goals in 2 matches. In-play stats will reveal.
  • 1st goal: St Mirren have conceded first in 12/20 home matches while Hibernian have scored first in 11/16 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 8/12 Hibernian away matches.

18:00 - Aberdeen v Livingston - 2.48 Aberdeen

  • This is the 3rd consecutive match for Aberdeen where they have been priced at 2.4+. In the last 2 matches we got 0-0's.
  • The last 0-0? Livingston v Aberdeen.
  • Livingston are unbeaten in 10 under new management, so, as befits 2.48 the favourite, cannot be discounted today.
  • Surely this 0-0 is layable today? Aberdeen will find it hard to keep collecting consecutive 0-0's.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 12/15 Aberdeen home matches against top-half teams and in 6/9 Livingston away matches against top half non-Big One teams. Livingston have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against top half non-Big One teams.

19:45 - Kilmarnock v Celtic - 1.38 Celtic

Kilmarnock  - 9th

  • 1-1 and 2-0 loss v Celtic earlier this season.
  • Not beaten the top 4.
  • Failed to score in 3/4 home matches v the top 4.
  • 3 consecutive defeats conceding 2+ goals.

Celtic - 2nd

  • Only away loss came v 1st in the league.
  • All wins away bar that 1-1 v Kilmarnock v 6th and lower.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches came at home v Hamilton.
  • Loss , Draw, last 2 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Kilmarnock are conceding 2 goals lately and Celtic have scored 2 goals in 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Enough to expect some kind of a return to form for a poor Celtic? Kilmarnock have trouble scoring v the top 4 but did score v Celtic.
  • Match outcome: Celtic have won 10/11 away matches against bottom-six teams and they have had W/W double results in 7/11 such matches. Kilmarnock have conceded first in 8/9 home matches against Big One teams.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

13:00 - Hatayspor v Fenerbahce - 2.00 Fenerbahce

Hatayspor - 7th

  • 2 wins in 6 matches came away.
  • Loss, Win, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • Conceded last 5 at home.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • Not beaten top 6.

Fenerbahce - 1st

  • 7 wins and a 1-1 draw last 8 matches.
  • Win, Win, Draw away recently.
  • Scored in last 8 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I like Fenerbahce this season. Back on top of the league after a long haitus. Slight concern is that they have scored just one goal in 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Hatayspor have not beaten the top 6.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/10 Hatayspor home matches and in 7/10 Fenerbahce away matches. Fenerbahce have lost 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.

16:00 - Galatasaray v Basaksehir - 1.75 Galatasary

Galatasary - 3rd

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 home matches.
  • 3 0-0's in 4 matches at halftime saw goals 2nd half.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Scored first in 8/10 matches at home.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.

Basaksehir - 15th

  • No win in 4 matches.
  • Conceded last 7 away.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 4.

Conclusions

  • Galatasary are in excellent form. Basaksehir are a shadow of the side, even, from last season.
  • I expect Galatasary not to lose.
  • Match outcome: Galatasaray have won 10/12 home matches against bottom-half teams and they have won by two or more goals in 5/8 such matches. Istanbul BB have drawn the first half in 8/9 away matches against top-six teams.

16:00 - Rizespor v Kasimpasa - 2.7 Rizespor

  • Not researching this one.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/13 Rizespor home matches and in 12/20 Kasimpasa away matches. Kasimpasa have conceded first in 9/12 away matches.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

  • Just a look at the Football form labs for this very competitive league.

18:00 - Millwall v Norwich - 2.16 Norwich

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Millwall home matches against top-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 8/13 home matches. Norwich have won 7/10 away matches.

19:00 - Bournemouth v Sheff Wed - 1.51 Bournemouth

  • Match outcome: Bournemouth have won 7/12 home matches while Sheffield Wed have lost 8/11 away matches. Sheffield Wed have conceded first in 7/11 away matches.

19:00 - Coventry v Nottm Forest - 2.8 Coventry

  • 1st half outcome: Coventry have drawn the first half in 9/12 home matches as have Nottm Forest in 7/8 away matches against bottom-half teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 15/16 Nottm Forest away matches.

19:00 - Rotherham v Derby - 2.7 Derby

  • Match outcome: Rotherham have lost 3/5 home matches against bottom-half teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 9/13 Derby away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 5 consecutive 1-0 results for Derby, 3 consecutive wins.

19:00 - Wycombe v Birmingham - 2.4 Birmingham

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/12 Wycombe W home matches while Birmingham have drawn the first half in 10/12 away matches. There have been -1.5 goals in 6/10 Birmingham away matches.

Notes for today from Football Form Labs

MATCH OUTCOME

NK Osijek v Slaven Belupo, Prva HNL, Croatia, February 2, 15:00

  • NK Osijek have won 11/14 home matches while Slaven Belupo have lost 6/8 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams. Slaven Belupo have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.

Galatasaray v Istanbul BB, Super Lig (TUR), Turkey, February 2, 16:00

  • Galatasaray have won 10/12 home matches against bottom-half teams and they have won by two or more goals in 5/8 such matches. Istanbul BB have drawn the first half in 8/9 away matches against top-six teams.

Dinamo Zagreb v Lokomotiva, Prva HNL, Croatia, February 2, 17:05

  • Dinamo Zagreb have won 18/20 home matches against bottom-half teams while Lokomotiva have lost 8/9 away matches against Big Two teams. Dinamo Zagreb have won by two or more goals in 5/8 home matches against bottom-half teams.
  • How to apply to trading? If the underdog scores first, can we retain confidence in the favourite? The basic trade.

FIRST HALF OUTCOME

  • Not sure this element can be used for a trading angle? Any ideas yourselves?

FC Arges v Sepsi, Liga 1 (Romania), Romania, February 2, 15:00

  • FC Arges have lost the first half in 6/10 home matches and they have conceded first in 6/10 home matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 13/20 Sepsi away matches.

Varda SE v MTK, OTP Bank Liga (Hungary), Hungary, February 2, 16:30

  • Varda SE have drawn the first half in 12/14 home matches and there have been -2.5 goals in 11/14 Varda SE home matches. MTK have conceded first in 5/9 away matches.

Carlisle v Forest Green, Football League Two, England, February 2, 18:00

  • Carlisle have lost the first half in 5/8 home matches against top-six teams while Forest Green have scored first in 6/10 away matches against top-six teams. Forest Green have won 6/10 away matches against top-six teams.

Sheffield Utd v WBA, Premier League, England, February 2, 18:00

  • Sheffield Utd have drawn the first half in 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Sheffield Utd such matches. WBA have conceded first in 8/10 away matches.

Arouca v Estoril, Segunda Liga (POR), Portugal, February 2, 18:00

  • Arouca have drawn the first half in 6/8 home matches as have Estoril in 6/8 away matches against top-half teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 10/10 Estoril away matches.

Coventry v Nottm Forest, Championship, England, February 2, 19:00

  • Coventry have drawn the first half in 9/12 home matches as have Nottm Forest in 7/8 away matches against bottom-half teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 15/16 Nottm Forest away matches.

FIRST GOAL

CD Mafra v Cova Piedade, Segunda Liga (POR), Portugal, February 2, 17:00

  • CD Mafra have scored first in 12/20 home matches while Cova Piedade have lost 7/8 away matches against top-half teams. Cova Piedade have lost the first half in 9/12 away matches against top-half teams.

St Mirren v Hibernian, Scottish Premiership, Scotland, February 2, 18:00

  • St Mirren have conceded first in 12/20 home matches while Hibernian have scored first in 11/16 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 8/12 Hibernian away matches.

Thun v Kriens, Switzerland Challenge League, Switzerland, February 2, 18:00

  • Thun have scored first in 6/9 home matches while Kriens have lost 8/12 away matches against top-half teams. Kriens have lost by two or more goals in 8/12 away matches against top-half teams.

Crawley v Leyton Orient, Football League Two, England, February 2, 19:00

  • Crawley have scored first in 13/18 home matches while Leyton Orient have lost 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams. Crawley have won 10/16 home matches.

Salford v Colchester, Football League Two, England, February 2, 19:00

  • Salford have scored first in 9/10 home matches while Colchester have conceded first in 7/8 away matches against top-half teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Colchester away matches against top-half teams.

UNDER 1.5 GOALS

  • Angles? Lay over 1.5 goals if a first goal is scored?

Stevenage v Exeter, Football League Two, England, February 2, 19:00

  • There have been -1.5 goals in 7/11 Stevenage home matches while Exeter have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +1.5 goals in 14/20 Exeter away matches against bottom-six teams.

Clermont v Troyes, Ligue 2, France, February 2, 19:00

  • There have been -1.5 goals in 12/20 Troyes away matches and -2.5 goals in 14/20 Troyes away matches. Clermont have won the first half in 8/10 home matches.

Dunkerque v Rodez, Ligue 2, France, February 2, 23:00

  • There have been -1.5 goals in 6/10 Dunkerque home matches and -2.5 goals in 7/12 Rodez away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Dunkerque home matches.

UNDER 2.5 GOALS

  • Angles? Lay over 2.5 goals if an early goal is scored?

Pisa v Frosinone, Serie B, Italy, February 2, 13:00

  • There have been -2.5 goals in 9/12 Pisa home matches against middle-third teams and in 9/11 Frosinone away matches against middle-third teams. Frosinone have drawn the first half in 9/11 away matches against middle-third teams.

Mlada Boleslav v Sigma Olomouc, Czech First League, Czech Republic, February 2, 14:00

  • There have been -2.5 goals in 9/12 Sigma Olomouc away matches and they have drawn the first half in 7/12 away matches. Mlada Boleslav have conceded first in 12/17 home matches.

OVER 2.5 GOALS

Angles?
  • Back over 2.5 goals first half and cash out if first half goal?
  • Wait for halftime? If 0-0, back over 2.5 goals ( or over 1.5 goals ; or lay the draw ) in expectation for goals.

Hatayspor v Fenerbahce, Super Lig (TUR), Turkey, February 2, 13:00

  • There have been +2.5 goals in 6/10 Hatayspor home matches and in 7/10 Fenerbahce away matches. Fenerbahce have lost 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.

Rizespor v Kasimpasa, Super Lig (TUR), Turkey, February 2, 16:00

  • There have been +2.5 goals in 9/13 Rizespor home matches and in 12/20 Kasimpasa away matches. Kasimpasa have conceded first in 9/12 away matches.

Randers FC v Horsens, Danish Superliga, Denmark, February 2, 17:00

  • There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 Randers FC home matches against bottom-six teams and in 7/9 Horsens away matches against top-half teams. Horsens have lost 12/19 away matches against top-half teams.

Aberdeen v Livingston, Scottish Premiership, Scotland, February 2, 18:00

  • There have been +2.5 goals in 12/15 Aberdeen home matches against top-half teams and in 6/9 Livingston away matches against top half non-Big One teams. Livingston have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against top half non-Big One teams.

Chiasso v Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, Switzerland Challenge League, Switzerland, February 2, 18:00

  • There have been +2.5 goals in 14/20 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away matches and +3.5 goals in 8/13 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away matches. Chiasso have conceded first in 7/8 home matches against middle-third teams.

FC Aarau v Schaffhausen, Switzerland Challenge League, Switzerland, February 2, 18:00

  • There have been +2.5 goals in 10/11 FC Aarau home matches against top-half teams and +3.5 goals in 13/15 FC Aarau home matches. Schaffhausen have lost the first half in 7/8 away matches against middle-third teams.