Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

No live chat webinar this evening but I may turn up at the DRT facebook page from 17:30 to pass on any possible angles.

ENGLISH FOOTBALL LEAGUE CUP

19:45 - Man City v Southampton - 1.12 Man City

  • Since 2017, Man City remain unbeaten in the League Cup. 7 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 for Southampton in the League Cup. I suspect though that Southampton have bigger fish to fry i.e. Premier League survival?
  • Southampton have not beaten a Premier League side in 4 matches in the League Cup. I don't expect Man City to lose here.

Burton v Leicester - 1.36 Leicester

  • League One v Premier League. Rodgers' first season in the League Cup.
  • 1.36 suggests that Leicester will wring the changes this evening.
  • The last time Burton met Premier League in this competition, they lost (Man City).
  • Leicester have not lost a League Cup match since 2015 albeit 8 of those matches went to extra time.
  • Angles? Leicester's odds could look relatively high after the end of this match looking at the gap in leagues. If Burton do score first, given the amount of times Leicester have gone to extra time and penalties, Leicester can equalise.

Everton v Watford - 1.71 Everton

  • 2 sides I am sure pre-occupied with an awful start to the Premier League season.
  • Since 2015 in the League Cup, Everton have lost to Man City, Norwich, Chelsea and a draw v Southampton.
  • Wins v Lincoln and Sheffield Wednesday came away from home.
  • 3 consecutive draws in all competitions for Watford in a winless domestic league season.
  • Watford have beaten Coventry and Swansea so far at home in the League Cup.
  • Angles? Everton do have a hint of being 'up for the cup'.

Oxford Utd v Sunderland - 2.62 Oxford

  • Both League One sides and 2.62 the favourite. Not for me unless the in-play stats reveal.

Crawley Town v Colchester - 2.7 Colchester

  • 2 League Two sides and 2.7 the favourite. As above!

SPANISH LA LIGA

18:00 - Alaves v Atletico Madrid - 1.82 Atl Madrid

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/13 Atl. Madrid away matches and they have drawn the first half in 8/13 away matches. Alaves have conceded first in 7/10 home matches against top-six teams.
  • 2 consecutive home wins for Alaves part of only 3 wins all season, all at home, and all to nil.
  • Those last 2 wins were the only 2 matches in which Alaves managed 2 goals.
  • Atl Madrid have only lost to Real Sociedad. Win, Loss, Win, Draw away for Atl Madrid.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches for Atl Madrid suggests that Alaves are unlikely to score that 2nd goal today.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches for Atl Madrid.
  • Angles? The Challenge Table is revealing. Alaves are 13th and have not beaten any side top 12 home or away. Atl Madrid are 4th and have only lost to current 3rd.
  • I think Alaves will not score 2 goals today and there is a good chance that Atl Madrid could do their typical 0-1 win here today. If you want to chance backing 0-0 pre match, 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches for Atl Madrid suggests it might have legs.

20:15 - Barcelona v Valladolid - 1.15 Barcelona

  • Match outcome: Barcelona have won 10/10 home matches and they have had W/W double results in 7/9 home matches against middle-third teams. Valladolid have conceded first in 14/17 away matches.
  • 2 losses for Barca came away this season.
  • 4 consecutive home wins, and on 3 occasions, 4+ goals were scored.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets for Barcelona.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime for Barca came first match of the season.
  • Only 3 wins for Valladolid, 2 did come away.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches for Valladolid.
  • Only 1 over 2.5 goals match for Valladolid.
  • All wins for Valladolid came v 16th and lower.
  • Angles? Barcelona have conceded in 3 of their 4 home matches and 2 goals on 2 occasions and still won. They play a Valladolid side who keep it tight but their wins have come v 16th and lower.
  • Barcelona should not be troubled. Expectation is for 3+ goals from them.

ITALIAN SERIA A

18:00 - Parma v Verona - 2.5 Parma

  • 1st half outcome: Parma have drawn the first half in 13/20 home matches and there have been -2.5 goals in 12/20 Parma home matches. Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 68% of away matches against top-half teams since 2014-15.

Parma (8th)

  • 3 consecutive home wins. 3-0-5-2 goals scored last 4 matches. Kept Inter Milan to 2-2 recently so on a good streak.
  • Only 1 clean sheet for Parma.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime for Parma.
  • 4 wins for Parma came v 11th-17th and they play 15th today.

Hellas Verona (15th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 2 consecutive defeats without scoring.
  • Only 1 over 2.5 goals matches all season.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Against 7th-14th, 1-1, 1-1, 0-1 loss, 0-0, 0-1 loss.

Conclusions

  • I think Verona are a little goal shy and contrast markedly with 3-0-5-2 goals last 4 matches for Parm. It should be a case today of Parma potentially outscoring Verona.

20:00 - Brescia v Inter - 1.54 Inter

  • Match outcome: Inter Milan have won 10/12 away matches against promoted teams and they have won the first half in 7/11 away matches. Bottom-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 53% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15.
  • No side wanted to go top last weekend as Juventus drew, then Inter drew. An Inter win would have seen them 1st,
  • A sticky match today for them v newly promoted Brescia.
  • Only 2 wins for Brescia came away from home and were 0-1.
  • They have noticeably kept it really tight, albeit in defeat, v the big guns. 1-0 loss to AC Milan, 2-1 losses to Juventus and Napoli.
  • That may be the template today. Battling display but eventual loss?
  • 2-2-3-4 goals scored away by Inter Milan is a strong foundation.
  • Angles? for me Brescia may get a goal but be out-muscled by Inter Milan.

GERMAN CUP

  • I won't research the German Cup  today suffice to say treat it as you would the Europa League i.e. acknowledge the market favourites and justify the odds via the in-play stats.
  • In-play stats may be revealing, more so than pre-match research.

17:30 - Freiburg v Union Berlin - 2.1 Freiburg


Saarbrucken v FC Koln - 1.51 FC Koln


Duisburg v Hoffenheim - 1.52 Hoffenheim


Hamburger SV v Stuttgart - 2 Hamburg


19:00 - Bochum v Bayern Munich - 1.12 Bayern


19:45 - SV Darmstadt v Karlsruhe - 2.32 SV Darmstadt


Arminia Bielefeld v Schalke 04 - 2 Schalke


Leverkusen v Paderborn - 1.33 Leverkusen


Other cup competitions which may yield in-play stats angles includes the Dutch Cup, Austrian Cup (some familiar names), French Coupe de la Ligue. Italian Seria B also appeals.
I will have a think about doing a live chat webinar tonight. The only obstacle is the start time for me. 17:30 UK is 00:30 where I am.