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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 29, 2016

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signaled matches.

Look out for a 0-0 at halftime in matches where we expected goals. Augsburg v Werder Bremen was a ready recent example. Research suggested over 2.5 goals (3+ goals expected). The match was 0-0 at halftime. Where are the goals? Back over 2.5 goals at enhanced odds for the 2nd half. 3 goals were scored in this case.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialized.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favorites. The home team is usually galvanized by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

I back BANKER bets with level stakes, re-calculating the level stakes every 20 bets and bet with that new level stake amount for the next 20 bets.

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

Killer stats are in bold italics. MOTD signals any match(es) I would prioritize my focus on if I had to choose just one or two matches in order to shorten the work load. These are the Matches of The Day. The DRT stripped Bulletin is absent today.

Matches comprise International Friendlies, Asian World Cup qualifiers and Euro u21 Championship matches. I will not be researching them all. I do prefer to research actual League matches as there are more stats, and stats is how I come to my conclusions. I will pick and choose certain matches today. IT has been tough to rely especially on the U21 teams so I would tread warily with these teams. League football returns soon and patience is required during this continued International Break.

THE MINNOW CLUB This is a list of the matches featuring the Minnow Clubs such as Andorra, San Marino, Liechtenstein et al . Expect goals and lots of them. No research is really necessary.

5pm - Austria U21 v Faroe Islands U21 - 1.06 home

5pm - Malta U21 v Czech Republic U21 - 1.08 away

530pm - Andorra U21 v Italy U21 - 1.03 away

If getting involved in the above 3 matches, I tend to look for correct score wins to nil. I tend to choose 3 scorelines such as 3-0, 5-0, 7-0 or variants thereof. The higher scorelines are included incase the strong favourite goes to town!

1130am - Japan v Syria - 1.16 home

Standout stats

  • 0-3 to Japan when these 2 met earlier in these Asian World Cup qualifiers. The goals came 2nd half and began with a penalty.
  • This is 1st and 2nd in Group E

Japan

  • 6 consecutive wins to nil for Japan saw them score between 2 and 6 goals.
  • 3-0 at home v Cambodia and 5-0 at home v Afghanistan

Syria

  • 6 wins anda  0-3 loss v Japan in their 7 Asian World Cup qualifiers

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Syria are 2nd because this is a weak group comprising Singapore, Afghanistan and Cambodia. Syria's proximity to Japan is down to these 2 poor teams.
  • Japan are a step above Syria and at home should score 3+ goals to replicate the 0-3 away win.
  • 1.16 odds suggest 3/4 goals and a possible win to nil.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as you can.
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3pm - Palestine v Timor Leste - 1.11 home

Standout stats

  • This is the last match in World Cup Asia qualifying for these 2 teams.
  • Palestine will remain 3rd with a win.
  • The odds today are based simply on the fact that Timor Leste have conceded 7-1-1-8-10 goals.
  • A 1-1 the last time they met Palestine saw Palestine score a 90th minute winner.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • A dead rubber really with the result having no baring on the Group. 1.11 odds suggest 4+ goals today but that was not the case away at Timor Leste. A win to nil is also on the cards if the odds are accurate. Palestine did beat Malaysia 6-0 at home recently.
  • If the odds are accurate , expect a goal at least in both halves.
-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE MINNOW CLUB This is a list of the matches featuring the Minnow Clubs such as Andorra, San Marino, Liechtenstein et al . Expect goals and lots of them. No research is really necessary.

5pm - Austria U21 v Faroe Islands U21 - 1.06 home

5pm - Malta U21 v Czech Republic U21 - 1.08 away

530pm - Andorra U21 v Italy U21 - 1.03 away

If getting involved in the above 3 matches, I tend to look for correct score wins to nil. I tend to choose 3 scorelines such as 3-0, 5-0, 7-0 or variants thereof. The higher scorelines are included incase the strong favourite goes to town! --------------------------------------------------------------------  

6pm - Russia U21 v Germany U21 - 1.54 away

Standout stats

  • These 2 have not met since 2013
  • This is a Euro u21 Championship match.

Russia u21

  • Russia u21 are really struggling in Group 7 in 5th place ( of 6).
  • In their 5 matches played, they have only beaten Faroe Islands u21. Not as reliable therefore as their senior team.
  • 2-4-0-3-2 goals conceded this campaign.

Germany U21

  • top the group by 6 points and 100% record so far, scoring 3-4-6-3-4-4 goals.
  • Germany have conceded in their last 3 matches.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • The only reason the Germans are not shorter odds , I guess, is the fact that they play away from home.
  • The Russians are nowhere near as solid as their First Team and are clearly struggling , conceding 2+ goals readily against a team scoring 3+ goals readily.
  • I can see both teams score perhaps ( it is a recent pattern from Germany u21) but with the Germans out-scoring Russia u21
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7pm - Gibraltar v Latvia - 1.28 away

Standout stats

  • Gibraltar are the newcomers to the World Stage and join the Minnows Club of San Marino, Andorra, Liechtenstein etc.
  • Gibraltar have failed to score in 10 of their last 12 matches in all competitions.
  • Gibraltar failed to score in their last 6 home matches , albeit predominantly Euro Qualifiers.
  • Lativa have not won in 13 matches.
  • Latvia failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • Latvia have not won in their last 23 away matches in all competitions, but have drawn 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • Only 1 win for Latvia since 2008 was v Armenia

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Please bring back league football! Both of these teams are terrible . If Gibraltar cannot even score a goal, then obviously Latvia just have to score that single goal that they have been scoring in recent friendlies, in order to win this International Friendly.
  • My angles in? If the match is 0-0 for a while, I will look to Latvia scoring eventually.
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745pm - Germany v Italy - 1.93 home

Standout stats

  • These 2 last met in 2013
  • This is an International Friendly.

Germany

  • 3 losses in their last 4 matches, the last 2 losses came in friendlies.
  • Germany have scored in each of their last 9 home matches.
  • They have scored 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 home matches.
  • No win in 4 friendlies, losing their last 3 friendlies.
  • Germany have conceded 2 goals at least in 5 of their last 6 friendlies.
  • only 2 wins in their last 10 home friendlies sees 3 losses in their last 4 friendlies.

Italy

  • no win in 3  a loss and 2 score draws.
  • scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • only 1 loss in their last 8  away matches saw a loss v Belgium last match.
  • no win in 5 friendlies sees 2 consecutive score draws.
  • only 3 wins in 22 friendlies.
  • 3 losses and a draw in their last 4 away friendlies.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • A match making no appeal to me at all. Both teams do not tend to be bothered whether they win or lose friendlies.
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745pm - Rep of Ireland v Slovakia - 2.34 home

8pm - England v Netherlands - 1.79 home

Standout stats

  • these 2 last met in 2012
  • This is an International Friendly

England

  • Excellent form. Only 1 loss in 18 matches was in a friendly v Spain.
  • 14 wins in those 18 matches.
  • 7 wins in their last 8 matches.
  • 7 consecutive home wins  sees 6 clean sheets.
  • only 1 loss in 11 friendlies was v Spain.
  • 2 consecutive friendly wins , 2-0v France and 2-3 v Germany  away.
  • 5 consecutive friendly clean sheets at home sees 4 wins and a draw.

Netherlands

  • only 1 draw in their last 17 matches.
  • scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive 2-3 matches, Loss, Win, Loss
  • no draw in 13 away matches.
  • 3 wins in their last 4 away matches, v Latvia, Kazakhstan and Wales 2-3.
  • in recent friendlies, Netherlands have conceded 2-3-0-4-2-3 goals. They actually won 2 of those matches.
  • have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 3 away friendlies, losing 2 and winning 1.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Please don't get carried away with friendlies.  Here, We see an England team who seem to take friendlies seriously versus a Netherlands side who don't tend to worry if they win or lose.
  • We have contrasting form here. Clean sheets for England at home v Netherlands tending to concede at least 2 goals.
  • I will have some fun here and back 3-2 and 2-3 and hope this match veers towards the Netherlands friendly form rather than the England home clean sheets. Both scorelines are still alive if one team leads 2-0/02
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