DRT Daily Research Bulletin, August 29, 2017
I hope you tried out tennis trading. Alas the big boys and girls turned up while I was having my beauty sleep. Maria Sharapova met Simona Halep and Halep was on the ropes. A set and a break down. What better time to lay Sharapova to win 2-0 sets. Surely in a Grand Slam the second seed Halep will make it to the final set shoot out? Indeed she did. Thanks to Insomnia for finding that one.
Jack Sock, a good ole USA man in his home Grand Slam, is never going to lose 3-0 sets. So what do you do when Jordan Thompson, his opponent, takes a 2-0 lead? You lay the bleep out of Jordan Thompson. Sock wins the 3rd set 6-1!
Those were 2 examples of why tennis trading in Grand Slams is a great stop-gap not just for now, in the International Break, but also in the Summer.
On to today and I am not sure if it is beneficial to research matches which take place at silly-o'clock.
What I will do is research the eye catching tennis matches and let you Insomniacs and early risers decide if you want to play. There are so many great trading possibilities in early rounds of Grand Slams. It is a pity that the time difference is not beneficial to us, as it is with French Open and Wimbledon.
I will be tweeting from 16:00 @drtclub for as many US Open matches as I can manage time-wise. I do hope those new to DRT and trading can follow the logic of the tennis trades. I do put up price graphs which I hope explain.
Bjorn Fratangelo v Ivo Karlovic - 1.33
- No Indepth research here. Big Ivo is likely to take sets to tie breakers. His serve does get broken easily, albeit by, I would say, top 20 players.
- 5 defeats in 6 on hard for Bjorn and possible form lines through another big hitter John Isner who beat Bjorn in 2 straight sets in Newport.
- I would be opposing any 1-0 or 2-0 sets lead for Bjorn.
Alex De Minaur v Dominic Thiem - 1.05 Thiem
- Try to get into the habit of laying players sub 1.1 odds. They do lose (ask 1.06 shot Tsonga in the French Open and Federer in Germany).
- Thiem has thrown in the odd shocker such as his effective throwing of a match in Antalya so there is hope! But a world top 9 should have this player for breakfast and win 3-0.
- We lose little and gain a lot in laying Thiem at 1.06.
Karolina Pliskova v Magda Linette - 1.07 Pliskova
- 3rd v 79th. Another odds on lay, albeit unlikely to come in. Women's service games can tend to go to pieces, and a reminder too in Grand Slams that the loser of the first set will fight in the second (ask Wozniacki last night).
- Last head to head was 2015 and it is 4-1 Plis in head to heads, 4 of those on hard.
- Quarter Finals and Semi Finals for Plis in her last 2 Warm up events saw her beating some strong sorts in Wozza, Muguruza.
- Linette seems a level below. She has to go through qualifying firstly to even get into a tournament.
- Expect a Pliskova win but try if you want to lay her at 1.08.
Kaia Kanepi v Francesca Schiavone - 1.59 Kanepi
- Schiavone I would describe as David Ferrer in a skirt. She is a battler and will give 100%.
- Kanepi 513th ranked but favourite tells me she had a lay off /injury which affected rankings.
- Head to heads from 2012 and earlier are irrelevant.
- Personally I would lay Kanepi if Kan wins first set, and I would even lay Kanepi if she wins first set and breaks in the 2nd. Schiavone will not be winning the US Open but she will be a thorn in the side.
Maximilian Marterer v Donald Young - 1.54 Young
- 132nd v 44th.
- I would always advocate following local players in their Grand Slam. I call it the 'Heather' Effect. We have Donald Young from the USA (Go USA!)
- Marterer has had to qualify to get to his last 3 tournaments, and has gone out first round. Same again today?
- Young is clearly limited but note on hard, 4 3 setters (in first to 2) v Paire, Nishikori, Coric and that indicates to me that Marterer will not be winning 3-0 if he goes up 1-0 or 2-0 sets.
- That is my angle. Add in the fact that Young is American (Go USA!), that will galvanise him further.
Henri Laaksonen v Juan Martin Del Potro - 1.06 Del Potro
- If ever there was a justified 1.07 lay it is of Del Boy who has taken Darren Anderton's moniker of 'Sick Note'.
- Hugely talented when fully fit, we have a retirement in Estoril, a retirement in the French Open. So Del Boy never seems 100% fit.
- In his warm up events, he has beaten Isner and Berdych so therein lies the talent!
- Laaksonen himself retired in his last event so may not be able to exploit an under par Del?
Jeremy Chardy v Gael Monfils - 1.13 Monfils
- 2 French men should know each other's games.
- 70th v 17th.
- 1-2 Monfils head to heads.
- In first to 2 sets, Monfils last 5 matches have been 3 setters. This instantly points me to opposing any Chardy 1-0 or 2-0 sets lead. Monfils is a battler.
- Chardy has not had any hard court warm ups.
Fernando Verdasco v Vasek Pospisil - 1.36 Verdasco
- I do like Verdasco. He has an air of reliability about him when expected to win. And when meeting better ranked players, he still is tough to play against.
- 36th v 112th.
- Verdasco won a 2017 head to head where the first set was a 7-5 so tight start.
- 3 consecutive hard court defeats for Verdasco.4 consecutive defeats for Vasek so neither player catching the eye in their hard court warm ups.
- 5 3 setters in 6 matches (in first to 2 sets) for Verdasco relays to us an ability to take a set at least so let's hope Vasek takes the opening set so we can lay him.
Naomi Osaka v Angelique Kerber - 1.4
- 46th v 2nd.
- No head to heads.
- Poor Osaka has tended to lose to a solid sort in her recent tournaments, including Safarova, Wozniacki, Williams, and Pliskova!
- Osaka did retire last match though when taking Pliskova into a 3rd set so that is hugely encouraging IF she is 100% fit.
- Kerber is yet to capture that air of invincibility.She has been poor (considering she was World Number 1) since the French Open.
- I would certainly lay an uncertain Kerber if she wins the first set.
David Goffin v Julien Benneteau - 1.28 Goffin
- 10th v 106th.
- Goffin is usually on my 'old reliables' list.
- Sole head to head from 2011.
- Goffin's warm up events cut short by losses to Kyrgios and Chung.
- Benneteau retired in his last event so a note of caution regarding him, as far as potential injury is concerned.
- Goff lasted one round at the US Open last year but reached the quarter finals on hard in the Australian Open. So obviously there is some talent there on this surface.
- There is that question mark surrounding the Benneteau retirement which must favour the Goff.
Rafael Nadal v Dusan Lajovic - 1.04 Nadal
- Another sub 1.1 lay but unlikely to come in. Nadal simply does not lose sets against 70th+ ranked players.
- Poor pre US Open warm ups for Rafa.
- Expect 3-0. But lay at 1.05. Sounds contrarian but we only need one of these sub 1.1 shots to come in from a lay perspective to make it worthwhile. Also remember the trading angle.
Andrey Kuznetsov v Feliciano Lopez - 1.62 Lopez
- 87th v 40th.
- Lopez 2-0 head to heads.
- Kuz only played one warm up event on hard, losing in the 2nd round to Isner.
- After retiring at Wimbledon (where I backed him in the outright market), Lopez has 5 defeats and 2 wins.
- I would ordinarily rely upon Lopez who was masterful on grass.
- Lopez was a quarter finalist here last year so that must count for something?
Slight niggle regarding potential hidden injury Lopez. On best form, he is the one to be with.
John Millman v Nick Kyrgios - 1.11 Nick
- I tend to avoid the Kyrgios circus. Old silly haircut is a dodgepot, and has been known to throw matches in the past.
- 1.12 is a natural lay for me. Hugely talented, I'll grant you but he is a bit of a Howling Mad Murdoch.
- Both are Aussies so a hope there is a bit of Insider knowledge from Millman
Vaclav Safranek v Grigor Dimitrov - 1.03 Dimitrov
- 207th v 12th and we have another lay at 1.04 here. Minimal liability, huge potential upside but alas unlikely to come off.
- Dimitrov comes into the US Open on the back of a tournament win in Cincinnati.
- Vaclav is a Challenger tour player.
Roger Federer v Frances Tiafoe - 1.05 Roger
- 3 consecutive finals for Roger the Dodger. The only saving grace we have as 1.06 layers is that Tiafoe is an American in the US Open. He could play above himself.
- Roger has been known to struggle in first rounds of Grand Slams in the past, only to come through. We can only hope for that today.
- We do have a very interesting piece of collateral form. Alexander Zverev was beaten by Tiafoe in Cincinatti. Zverev beat Federer in Canada. Hmmm!