It's predominantly cup day today throughout Europe. Research futile but do watch the review/preview video as we have some very strong market fancies in their country's cup matches. In-play stats are de riguer in the cup.

We have the English Championship, Leagues 1 and 2. A lot of 2.3+ the favourite matches will get short shrift. I will research the other matches. Italian Seria A is welcome today too - a touch of quality on a tough old coupon.

English Championship

• 2 matches with favourites at odds of 2.62 and 2.25 preclude research. Remain disciplined and don't just play because this happens to be the 2nd tier in England and the Coupon is barren.

English League 1

19:45 - Peterborough v Charlton - 1.83 Peterborough

Peterborough - 9th

• 3 wins, 2 losses, 2 wins latest.
• Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win at home recently, the epitome of inconsistency.
• No draw in 9 and in 9 at home.
• Conceded last 4 at home.
• 1-1 last head-to-head.
• Not played 12th, 13th or 14th at home but against 15th and lower, 13 wins and a 1-1 draw home and away.

Charlton - 14th

• 3 losses in 4 matches.
• 3 consecutive away wins ended in a loss latest.
• No draw in 10 and in 6 away.
• Unbeaten v 7th-15th away.

Conclusions

• If Peterborough continue in the electric form they are in v 15th and lower (and play 14th today), then a win is on the way.
• Lay any late draw.
• A slight niggle? Charlton are unbeaten v 7th-15th away.

English League 2

19:45 - AFC Wimbledon v Stevenage - 2.10 Stevenage

AFC Wimbledon - 15th

• Only 3 defeats since 22nd October 2022 came away.
• 4 of the last 8 scorelines were 0-0 - just note that.
• No defeat in 9 at home.
• Only 2 wins home and away v the top 12, came at home v 1st and 5th - those were the only 2 matches AFC scored in at home v the top 11.
• 65%+ home goals came 2nd half.

Stevenage - 3rd

• 3 losses in 4 matches.
• 6 consecutive away draws ended with a loss last match.
• Only 1 loss in 21 matches home and away v 9th and lower.
• But....both teams scored in all matches away v 14th and lower with 6 score draws, 5 of them 1-1.

Conclusions

• The market is not as warm as I'd have expected of a side with only 1 loss in 21 matches v 9th and lower. Slightly favour Stevenage on that. 0-0 may be in play with AFC. The reason the market is lukewarm is that AFC are unbeaten in 9 at home.
• Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

19:45 - Barrow v Salford - 2.60 Barrow

19:45 - Gillingham v Bradford - 2.60 Bradford

• Leave these Barrow and Gillingham matches alone.

19:45 - Harrogate v Northampton - 2.15 Northampton

Harrogate - 21st

• Only 1 win in 11 matches.
• 3 draws in 4 matches.
• No win in 5 at home.
• Conceded last 6 at home.
• Not beaten top 6 at home.

Northampton - 4th

• Win, Draw, Win away recently.
• Only 1 loss away v 7th and lower.
• 6 wins and a 1-1 home and away v 19th and lower.

Conclusions

• 2.15 looks high for a side like Northampton with only 1 loss away v 7th and lower and 6 wins and a draw home and away v 19th and lower. What an odd market! There may be a reason behind it of course.

19:45 - Tranmere v Crawley - 1.73 Tranmere

Tranmere - 13th

• 4 losses in 6 matches.
• A 5-match unbeaten home run ended last home match.
• Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches in 10.
• No draw in 7.
• Only 1 home loss v 9th and lower.

Crawley - 23rd

• 4 losses and a 2-2 last 5 matches.
• 5 losses and a 2-2 last 6 away.
• No win in 15 away.
• Conceded last 10 and last 13 away.
• 17/26 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Tranmere well placed here on seasonal form. Strong under 2.5 goals pattern Tranmere so prepare for that.
• Crawley simply cannot win away.
• Expect 2nd half goals.

Italian Serie A

17:30 - Cremonese v Roma - 1.73 Roma

Cremonese - 20th

• No win.
• Only 3 clean sheets.
• 4 consecutive home defeats.
• Conceded last 9 and last 4 at home.
• 1-0 loss last head-to-head.

Roma - 3rd

• Only 1 loss in 10 matches came away v Napoli.
• 4 clean sheets last 6 matches.
• 8 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
• Scored last 10 and last 9 away.
• All wins home and away v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

• Special One quietly going about his business. 3rd in the league. 1.73 odds looks huge in the context of playing bottom of the league without a win all season.
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Roma's recent pattern.
• Expect an away win but why are the odds so, relatively speaking, high?

19:45 - Juventus v Torino - 1.75 Juventus

• Turin derby. 17 consecutive head-to-heads saw Juventus unbeaten.
• Not researching any further. You know why, right?

Turkish Lig 1

17:00 - Eyupspor v Bodrumspor - 1.95 Eyupsor

• Alan Bennett, Alan 'Tit'chmarch, Parkie, Boycott, Sean Bean, The boys from Tetley teabags, the little kid on the hovis bike. All will be huddled round t'ut telly to watch Yorkshire Turks Eyupspor. I'll be following too. Good trading side despite the lesser league.

Eyupspor - 2nd

• 3 losses in 4 matches, 2 coming away.
• Only home match came last match.
• No opponent has led at halftime in Eyupspor home matches.
• 3-0 loss last head-to-head. not beaten top 6 but not played 3ed - 6th at home.
• 91% scoring rate at home.
• 15/21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home, 1 at fulltime.

Bodrumspor - 3rd

• 4 consecutive away wins.
• 2+ goals scored last 2 away.
• No defeat in 5 away.
• Not played top 2 away but lost 3-0 and 2-0 away v 4th and 5th.
• 9/13 goals scored away 1st half.

Conclusions

• I didn't realise that this was a top 3 clash so could be a tight one. 3-0 win for Bod in head-to-head.
• Eyupsor score at home so remember that, tendency 2nd half.
• Lay the 2nd half 0-0.
• Lay Bod in the halftime market if they score first, in the first half.