A good set of research yesterday. Lyngby's match ended 0-0. Both teams scored in Viborg's match. Fiorentina scored 2 goals and did not lose. And Leicester scored 2 goals v Liverpool. 2-2 was tradeable at 2-0 Leicester and I hope you took it. The ideal progression for a 2-2 trade is 1-1 then 2-1 or 1-2, and not 2-0! The market got the Liverpool match wrong didn't it! Lazy market makers!
English Championship and Spanish La Liga dominate today and I will research these league matches first. Elsewhere we have cup matches in Europe.
17:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Arminia Bielefeld - 1.56 Frankfurt
- The market is emphatic here in this German Cup match that the Bundesliga side will beat the 2 Bundesliga team.
- But is Frank up for the cup?
- In their last 4 cup matches, Frankfurt have only one win v Hannover. The lost 1-0 away to Erzgebirge, drew with Magdeburg and 0-0 v Ingolstadt.
- Only 3 wins in 8 cup matches. This is not necessarily the form of a team busting a gut to win at all costs!
- Only 2 wins in 8 for Arminia also suggests they are either a) not up for the cup or b) cannot consistently beat higher league teams in the cup.
- The 2 losses for Arminia were v Bundesliga Wolfsburg and Hertha.
- Only 1 win in 6 away matches for Arminia saw 3 matches going to penalties.
- I don't know about you but I am not taken by Frankfurt's form. This is a match in which I would recommend that you pay attention to Frankfurt but take your cues from the in-play stats today, basically to see if Frankfurt's play is in keeping with that of a 1.56 shot.
18:30 - Sociedad v Eibar - 1.88 Sociedad
Sociedad 100% stats
- Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower (playing 7th today).
- No 0-0.
Socieadad other stats
- Only 2 draws.
- No draw in 11 matches.
- Half of home matches 0-0 at halftime.
- Lost 2-0 to Eibar earlier in the season.
- 13 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Eibar 100% stats
- No 0-0 away.
- Not beaten a top 9 team away (4 matches played) - Sociedad are 5th.
Eibar other stats
- 4 wins in their last 5 matches scoring 3-4-4-3 goals in those wins.
- 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
- Eibar's superb recent goal scoring must be put into context. It is largely v bottom third sides.
- On form v top 9, Eibar should not win today (albeit they beat Sociedad at home earlier this season).
- I would lay Eibar if Eibar scored first. I like Sociedad's home form and it suggests the home side should expect something.
19:45 - Aston Villa v Bristol City - 2.1 Aston Villa
Aston Villa 100% stats
- No 0-0 at home.
- Unbeaten v teams below them in the league at home (Aston Villa are 17th, Bristol are 21st).
- No over 4.5 goals.
Aston Villa other stats
- Only 1 win in 10 matches was a 1-0 v Derby last match.
Bristol City 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- All away defeats came by 1 goal.
Bristol City other stats
- Only 2 wins in 19 matches.
- In 7 of 8 matches away, Bristol City conceded 2 goals at last.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- No win in 12 away and have conceded in all 12 away matches.
- Only kept 1 clean sheet away.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Bristol City won 3-1 in the earlier head to head but may not be able to replicate that today. I would lay Bristol if they scored first.
- Bristol City are likely to concede at some point so note that.
19:45 - Hamilton v Aberdeen - 1.58 Aberdeen
- Aberdeen have delivered in 2 consecutive matches so have an air of reliability about themselves when odds on shots in the Scottish Premier League.
Hamilton 100% stats
- Bottom of the league.
- No home 0-0.
Hamilton other stats
- Only 3 wins.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Beat Aberdeen 1-0 at home earlier this season.
- 12 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Aberdeen 100% stats
- No away match with 2 goals exactly.
Aberdeen other stats
- 8 wins in their last 9 matches.
- Failed to score in only 6 matches.
- No draw in 12 away matches.
- 11 goals scored away last 1/2 hour of matches.
- 1-3 wins away v 2nd bottom and 3rd bottom.
- It took Celtic a while to score against Hamilton and that might be the case today for Aberdeen who have huffed and puffed in their last 2 wins.
- On form, Aberdeen should not lose today and should score......eventually so keep the faith if 1-0 or 0-0 for a while.
- Lay any late draw as Aberdeen keep avoiding the draw away.
19:45 - Brighton v Newcastle - 2.56 Brighton
- This is 1st v 2nd in the English Championship and in matches like this, I tend to avoid them from a trading perspective.
- These 2 are in such good form that any result would not surprise.
- Brighton are unbeaten at home v top 10 teams. They lost 2-0 to Newcastle earlier this season.
- Brighton have had only 4 defeats to Newcastle's 7 defeats.
- A no play for me. I don't have a trading angle.
19:45 - Blackburn v Derby - 2.58 Derby
- Odds like these, coupled with a tough league such as the English Championship, makes this match less appealing immediately.
Blackburn 100% stats
- 2nd bottom of the league.
- All defeats at home have come v top 8 teams - Derby are 11th.
- 1-2 win v Derby earlier in the season.
Blackburn other stats
- Both teams have scored in 11 of the last 14 matches.
- Scored in their last 10 home matches.
- 50% over 2.5 goals.
Derby County 100% stats
Derby county other stats
- Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
- Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches. 3 1-0 defeats in their last 4 away.
- 6 1-0 defeats and 5 0-0's at halftime away.
- 5 wins, 2 1-0 defeats and a 1-1 v teams below them in the league away.
- Both teams to score looks a big stat here and I would want Blackburn to score first as I would be more confident laying them as first scorers.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Derby's away wins tend to congregate v teams below them in the league.
19:45 - Juventus v Napoli - 1.75 Juventus
- This is the Italian Cup so caution advised.
Juventus cup form
- Unbeaten in their last 9 matches - 6 were wins, 3 were extra time wins.
- Scored and conceded in both of their 2017 cup matches.
- 4-3-3-2 goals scored in their last 4 home matches.
Napoli cup form
- 2 consecutive wins v Spezia and Fiorentina.
- Only 2 wins recently away were v Juventus in 2012 and Fiorentina in 2014.
- This is the first of 2 legs and so is not a must win match, rather a must-not-lose-by-so-many-goals-that-this-match-is-not-salvageable!
- Caution advised therefore. I do though like Juventus's home form. I could see both teams scoring and Juventus not losing.
19:45 - Sportfreunde Lotte v Dortmund - 1.22 Dortmund
- This is the German Cup.
- Sportfreunde Lotte are a Bundesliga 3 side so any Dortmund side with an ounce of enthusiasm should win this match with ease.
- Sportfreunde Lotte have an interesting cup record. They beat Werder Bremen 2-1, drew 1-1 with Bayer Leverkusen (Lotte's goal was an own goal) and meet a 3rd consecutive Bundesliga team.
- Only 1 loss in 21 matches for Dortmund in the cup. Do note though that 3 of their last 4 cup matches have gone to extra time and /or penalties.
- Dortmund have not conceded 2 goals or more in their last 9 cup matches.
- There is an inkling that Dortmund take the cup seriously enough to at least not lose! I would expect same today so would love Lotte to score first so we could lay Lotte.
20:30 - Malaga v Betis - 2.02 Malaga
Malaga 100% stats
- No 0-0 at home.
- Unbeaten at home v teams 12th and lower (Betis are 15th).
Malaga other stats
- Only 1 win in 11 matches came last home match.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Conceded in their last 12 matches and last 6 at home.
Betis 100% stats
- No away draw.
- Not scored more than 1 goal in a match away.
Betis other stats
- 5 consecutive away defeats.
- No draw in 10 away.
- Conceded in their last 10 away.
- Betis tend to lose away. 2 wins were 2-3 and 1-2.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Malaga are highly likely to score.
- Lay any late draw.
- On form, Malaga should not lose today.
20:30 - Valencia v Leganes - 1.79 Valencia
Valencia 100% stats
- No home 0-0.
- 5 unbeaten both teams to score matches v bottom 5 sides (Leganes are 16th).
- Scored and conceded at home v all teams 9th and lower.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
- No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
Valencia other stats
- 2-2-0-2-2 goals scored in recent home matches.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- In 10 of 11 home matches, at least one team scored at least 2 goals.
- In 8 of 11 matches at home, Valencia scored 2 goals.
Leganes 100% stats
- No away 0-0.
- Not led at halftime away.
- No over 4.5 goals matches away.
Leganes other stats
- In 7 of their last 8 away matches, Leganes have conceded 2 or more goals.
- Only 2 wins in 17 matches.
- No win in 8 away.
- Only 1 win home and away v top 15 sides.
- 8 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- Valencia should not lose today and could score 2 or more goals, rather like Fiorentina yesterday.
- Look out for that if 0-0 or 0-1 for a while.
- I would want Leganes to score first. I would consider backing Valencia if Leganes score first.
- Note Leganes are yet to lead at halftime away so if they score first and early first half, lay them in the halftime market.