For League matches, I am using a new source for stats and will share them with you. They will be in addition to my own research. They appear at the start of research and are not my opinion. I just want to share another party's angles. They do look problematic. Look at the Lyon/Montpellier stat about Lyon's performances v bottom 6 sides. BUT Montpellier are bottom 6 after only 2 matches so this really is erroneous stats wise as Montpellier last season were top 6. On to today, and I like the League Cup from a trading perspective, particularly the 'gaps' in league that I like to look for. I do hope I can stay up (1:45am start!) to monitor at DRT Facebook. Do let me know if you find the additional stats useful (see bottom of the DRT Bulletin). I feel that, as the season progresses and we get more current-season data, these snippets will be very useful to us.
ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP
- I like the League Cup from a trading perspective. The market is generally accurate. I like looking for gaps in the league. I would warn you to check out team news, particularly for the Premier league sides. Weaker sides out today?
Bristol Rovers v Brighton - 1.66 Brighton
- League One v Premier League. The gap in leagues is something I look for in this League Cup. The question with teams like Brighton is whether they can be bovvered with a cup run, particularly in this lesser cup, in lieu of staying in the Premier league.
- 2018 saw Brighton out in the first round to Southampton. 4/4 wins for Bristol at home albeit not top flight sides.
- Favour the market and the gap in leagues?
Burton v Morecambe - 1.56 Burton
- League One v League Two. The gap in leagues is not as significant as the Brighton match but the market is similar.
- Burton's only losses in 2018 in the League Cup came against a team you may have heard of....Manchester City. They beat Championship Villa and Burnley and Forest so moving down to League Two suggests Burton are a) up for the cup and b) more than capable of beating a League Two side if they've beaten Championship sides so consistently.
- No bringing me sunshine for Mr. Morecambe alas in this competition. 9-3-7-4-2 goals in total in the League Cup and only one win, a 4-5 v Rotherham.
- We're with the market here even if Morecambe score 2 goals.
Cardiff v Luton - 1.96 Cardiff
- What's the attitude here for these 2 Championship sides? Cardiff would prefer to maintain focus on promotion to the Premier League. Luton would prefer to maintain focus on remaining in the Championship and pushing on.
- These concerns were not there in League cup matches-past which makes me reluctant to research based on past League Cup form.
- Note the market and, if you want to play, focus on the in-play stats.
Crawley Town v Norwich - 1.42 Norwich
- League Two v Premier League. Delia's boys surely want a 100% focus on staying in the Premier League.
- I like the gap in form.
- Only 1 win in 9 League Cup matches for Crawley was a 2-3 win last match. They scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Norwich's last 2 defeats in the League Cup came v Arsenal and Bournemouth. It all depends on whether the nod from the mighty Delia is to get the hell out of this competition because the Premier League is too alluring?
Crewe v Aston Villa - 1.45 Villa
- League Two v Premier League and it's as you were as regards Norwich. Aston Villa really must focus on Premier League survival rather than this lesser-light cup.
- But there is a significant gap in the leagues.
- 5 extra times in the last 7 League Cup matches for Crewe. Some of those matches were v Championship sides. The value seekers may want to lay the Villans if they score first?
- 0-1 v Yeovil (win) and 1-0 loss v Burton for Villa in the cup suggests, as above, laying Villa if they score first, with that 0-1 insurance in place?
Crystal Palace v Colchester - 1.22 Palace
- A superb defensive display against Man Utd for Palace, suffocated Man Utd of shots on target. A missed penalty did add a tinge of luck for Palace on the day.
- Premier League v League Two. Even with a much changed Palace side, the gap in leagues is such as they should bring it home.
- Colchester have had a tough time in the League Cup. Only 1 win recently was v Swindon last match.
- Palace at home in the League Cup are excellent. 8 wins and a 2-2 last 9 matches.
Fulham v Southampton - 2.5 Fulham
- I will take the hint of the market and give this a miss.
Grimsby v Macclesfield - 2.2 Grimsby
- 2 league Two sides. I do prefer those 'gaps' in the leagues for the league cup so will only play this via the in-play stats.
Leeds v Stoke - 1.59 Leeds
- 2 Championship sides but 1st v bottom of the league so, despite wanting to see those 'gaps' in the league, there is another gap in league positions, albeit after only 5 matches.
- The market though is emphatic.
- Leeds last 2 losses in the league Cup came v Leicester and Preston North End.
- 6 wins, a draw and a loss at home is solid enough. They did lose to Preston North End.
- Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win for Stoke in the League Cup. Which Stoke turns up today?
- 2 losses in 3 away for Stoke.
Newport County v West Ham - 1.42 West Ham
- League Two v Premier League. Nice gap in the leagues.
- West Ham's last 2 losses in the League cup? V Tottenham and Arsenal. Newport have no recent form in the cup v Premier league so we will have to side with the market here and an assumption that the Hamsters are up for the cup
Nottm Forest v Derby - 2.48 Forest
- No gap in leagues and 2.48 the favourite. I'll leave this to the in-play stats.
Oxford Utd v Millwall - 2.42 Millwall
- League One v Championship so we have a gap in leagues but the market does not fancy the higher league side Millwall with 2.42 only.
- 3 wins in 4 for Oxford saw clean sheets in the League Cup for Oxford.
- 2 wins in 3 at home v 2 wins in 3 away in the League Cup.
- I'll leave this to the in-play stats.
Plymouth v Reading - 2.06 Reading
- League Two v Championship so there's the gap in leagues I like to see in this competition.
- A poor record in the League Cup for Plymouth albeit 2 wins in 3 matches. Big gap in home form from 2015 so little to gauge from.
- Reading have only tended to lose to Premier League sides in the League Cup so a tentative look towards them to produce a positive today?
- But like Plymouth, the 2nd last away match was 2016 so that form is a little irrelevant.
Preston v Hull - 2.02 Preston
- 2 Championship sides. I'll leave it there but note Preston are nearly odds-on favourites.
Rochdale v Carlisle - 1.86 Rochdale
- League One v League Two.
- LWLWLWLW (L=Loss, W=Win) for Rochdale this League Cup. Which Rochdale turns up today?
- 6 extra times in 9 League cup matches at home, only 1 loss and 2 wins as well. Rochdale up for the cup?
- only 2 wins in 7 for Carlisle. Slightly favour Rochdale here, and lay Carlisle particularly if Carlisle lead by 1 goal late on (given all of those extra times for Rochdale).
Sheff Utd v Blackburn - 1.81 Sheff Utd
- Premier League side Sheff Utd have more to think about this season and if I were their manager, or Sean Bean, I would suggest that they exit this competition sharpish (a bit like Man Utd used to do under Fergie!!).
- Only 1 win in 5 in the League Cup for the Blades.
- 1-5 win, 4-1 win, 3-2 loss v Bournemouth and 3-2 win v Oldham for Blackburn.
- Watching brief here with a note that Sheff Utd are now Premier League.
Southend v MK Dons - 2.66 Southend
- No thanks. 2.66 the favourite.
Watford v Coventry - 1.33 Watford
- Premier League v League One. That eternal conundrum. Would Watford not be better served shelving this competition and focusing on Premier League survival? The gap in leagues is clear.
- 3/3 losses for Watford. Psychologically, get a win under the belt today? Only 1 win in 6 League Cup for Watford suggests this competition is not a priority.
- Only 1 win in 9 for Coventry in the League Cup. Messy form both but that gap in leagues to be the clincher?
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUALIFIERS
20:00 kick off
Crvena Zvezda v Young Boys - 2.64 Red Star
- 2-2 from the first leg saw Young Boys lucky to draw with a late penalty. 1-2 Red Star for 76 minutes.
- 2.64 suggests the market cannot split these 2 sides. Young Boys must win today really given those 2 Red Star away goals.
FK Krasnodar v Olympiakos - 2.12 FK Krasnador
- 4-0 Olympiakos in the first leg is emphatic and the cherry on the top will be an away goal. FK need to mirror the 4-0 and win 5-0 in order to qualify. If Oly score, then FK will need 6 goals to reply.
Rosenborg v Dinamo Zagreb - 2.6 Dinamo Zagreb
- 2 well-known sides for you live chat webinar attendees. Norway and Croatia. Both great trading candidates domestically but 2.6 the favourite here
- 2-0 Dinamo Zagreb from the first leg. The first goal was a penalty. The market cannot discount Rosenborg. An away goal for Zagreb requires Rosenborg to score 4 goals in reply. The Norwegians MUST score first and second!!
FRENCH LIGUE 1
18:00 - Montpellier v Lyon - 2.12 Lyon
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 14/19 Lyon away matches and +3.5 goals in 8/13 Lyon away matches against bottom-six teams. Montpellier have drawn the first half in 6/9 home matches against top-six teams. (From new stats source but flawed. Montpellier were 6th last season, bottom 6 this but only 2/3 matches played).
- What a solid start for Lyon. 9 goals and no goal conceded in 2 wins.
- 0-1 loss and 1-1 draw for Montpellier this season.
- All matches have seen at least a goal before halftime.
- 4-2 and 0-3 wins for Lyon v Montpellier last season.
- Lyon look solid so far, albeit 2 goals. Lyon to continue the goal fest despite Montpellier's apparent defensive attitude in their 2 matches?
18:00 - Halmstads v Jonkopings Sodra - 2.4 Halmstads
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 13/20 Halmstads BK home matches and in 6/10 Jonkopings away matches against bottom-half teams.
- Jonkopings have drawn the first half in 10/18 away matches.
- 2 consecutive wins.
- No defeat in 6 matches at home.
- Scored in their last 4 at home.
- 2+ goals scored in those matches.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (20%).
- 0-1 win v Sodra already this season.
- Not played 2nd-4th at home yet.
- An interesting addition to soccerstats. 80% of home matches have seen over 1.5 goals at halftime.
- 12 of 17 goals scored at home came 1st half.
- Unbeaten in 8 matches.
- Scored last 9 and last 4 away.
- 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
- Scored 2+ goals in 7 of their last 8 matches.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
- Poor away. Only 2 away wins v the top 13 v 6th and 7th.
- 2.4 the favourite.....you know by now. I was looking a Sodra's recent form thinking wow, that's solid stuff but away from home, they have only 2 wins v the top 13.
- No defeat in 6 at home plays unbeaten in 8. I do though like Sodra's recent 2+ goals a game record.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if you want (20% both sides only).
IRISH PREMIER DIVISION
20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v Waterford - 1.14 Shamrock
Shamrock Rovers (2nd)
- 3 wins and 2 draws last 5 matches.
- Only defeats at home v top 3 were 0-1.
- 2-1, 1-2, 1-5 wins v Waterford already this season.
- Only 1 win in 8 matches.
- 9 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Not beaten a top 4 side home or away.
- Waterford may yet score but likely in defeat.
- Don't forget the 20 minute strategy with a 1.14 shot. If 0-0 at 20 minutes, back 1-0, 2-0 and any unquoted in the halftime score market just to give us some value.
- From my new stats source.....top indicators........
- 1 - Home Win/Winv All (1.96)
2 - Home Winv All (1.86)
3 - Home HT Winv All (1.8)
- 1 - Home 2nd half Drawv All (2.72)
2 - Home Win by 2+v All (2.16)
3 - Over 3.5 match goalsv All (1.94)
Additional stats from my new stats source.
Ilves v HIFK, Veikkausliiga, Finland 16:30
- Ilves have drawn the first half in 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while there have been under 2.5 goals in 6/9 HIFK away matches. HIFK have drawn the first half in 5/9 away matches.
CR Brasil v Bragantino, Brasileiro Serie B, Brazil 20:30
- There have been under 2.5 goals goals in 7/10 CR Brasil home matches against top-six teams and under 1.5 goals in 5/8 Bragantino away matches. Bragantino have won the first half in 5/8 away matches.
Over 2.5 goals (known as +2.5 goals below).
Geylang v Warriors, S-League, Singapore 11:45
- There have been +2.5 goals in 10/13 Geylang home matches and in 10/12 Warriors FC away matches. Warriors FC have scored first in 7/8 away matches against bottom-half teams.
Hougang Utd v Albirex Niigata S, S-League, Singapore 12:45
- There have been +2.5 goals in 11/15 Hougang Utd home matches and in 14/20 Albirex Niigata S away matches. Albirex Niigata S have won 12/20 away matches.
Montpellier v Lyon, Ligue 1, France 18:00
- There have been +2.5 goals in 14/19 Lyon away matches and +3.5 goals in 8/13 Lyon away matches against bottom-six teams. Montpellier have drawn the first half in 6/9 home matches against top-six teams.
Halmstads BK v Jonkopings, Superettan, Sweden 18:00
- There have been +2.5 goals in 13/20 Halmstads BK home matches and in 6/10 Jonkopings away matches against bottom-half teams. Jonkopings have drawn the first half in 10/18 away matches.