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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

18:00 - Crystal Palace v West Ham - 2.40 West Ham

  • London Derby so no indepth research.
  • Palace have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Draw, Win at home, the loss v Liverpool.
  • Only 3 Palace clean sheets all season, 2 came within the last 3 matches.
  • 13th v 7th. Palace have only 1 win home and away v the top 9.
  • 8/11 goals scored at home came 1st half. Palace have conceded 6 goals last 15 mins of home matches.
  • Apart from an opening day anomalous defeat v Newcastle, it has taken a big gun to beat West Ham - Arsenal - Liverpool - Man Utd - Chelsea.
  • 2 draws and 3 wins last 5 matches, 2 of those wins were 1-0.
  • West Ham have not met 13th - 19th away.
  • 6 goals scored and 4 goals conceded away by West Ham last 15 mins of matches.
  • Angles? London Derby so it could be 'best on the day'. On seasonal form, it takes one of the Big 5 to beat West Ham and on that basis I would side with the Hammers here but there is a gap in form - not met 13th-19th away and London Derby. Last 15 minute action?

18:00 - Newcastle v Leeds - 1.91 Leeds

Newcastle - 16th

  • 6 losses and 2 draws last 8 matches.
  • Win, Draw, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • Failed to score in 5/6 matches.
  • 5-2 loss last head to head.
  • 7/10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 10/15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Leeds - 12th

  • 2 wins and 2 losses last 4 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss away recently.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • No draw in 9 and in 9 away.
  • 5 wins and a 0-1 v 15th and lower, 3 of the wins came at home.

Conclusions

  • Leeds United failing to score in 2 matches? Next you'll be telling me Donald Trump could become US President! Unbelieveable.
  • Leeds lurch between 1 goal or no goal, and then 4/5 goals as they did in the last head to head with Newcastle. If the latter turns up of course, Newcastle haven't got the fire power to cope.
  • Newcastle did keep an attacking Leicester to 1-2 only so may feel confident. But failing to score in 5/6 matches is a concern for the Geordies.
  • 2nd half goal action possible. Apart from that, there are no ultra strong form patterns.

20:15 - Southampton v Arsenal - 2.37 Arsenal

  • Arsenal are better judged on their most recent matches - Win, Win, Win, Draw, Win and 4 consecutive clean sheets. 2 consecutive clean sheets away from home.
  • Since 26th September, only 3 losses for Southampton came v Man Utd, Man City and Leicester City who are...top 3 sides only.
  • This is why it's 2.37 the favourite. Southampton have only tended to lose to the top 3. Arsenal are very recently playing like a top 3 side, with 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • So, no pre-match angles for me. If we can rely on this Arsenal defence, then lay Southampton if Southampton score first.

20:15 - West Brom v Man City - 1.20 Man City

West Brom - 19th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • The Allardyce revolution is not quite kicking in yet. One win came v Wolves, care of 2 penalties if I remember.

Man City - 2nd

  • 8 wins and 2 draws recently.
  • 6 consecutive wins. 5 clean sheets in those 6 wins.
  • Only 2 losses came v the top 5.
  • 1-1 in an earlier head to head.

Conclusions

  • Allardyce is not making it work yet and has a tester tonight. West Brom have scored last 2 matches so may get a goal. 1-1 last time these 2 met. This is unlikely to be the West Brom mini revival today! The market expects 3+ goals from Man City.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:00 - Bristol City v Huddersfield - 2.45 Bristol City

Bristol City - 10th

  • Only 4 wins in 11 matches saw 7 defeats.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Win at home though.
  • No draw in 11 and in 5 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.
  • v 9th and lower, 6 wins and 2 losses coming v 16th and 19th at home.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • 8/12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 7 goals scored at home came last 15 mins of matches.

Huddersfield - 14th

  • 4 losses and a win last 5 matches.
  • 4 losses and a 0-0 last 5 away matches.
  • No win in 7 away matches.
  • Only 2 away wins came v 2nd and 16th.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these 2 so please remember that when adding up these conclusions.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Huddersfield have had only 2 wins away from home. Bristol City are excellent v 9th and lower as well so that may lean me towards City IF I had to pick a team (remembering it is 2.45 the favourite).

19:00 - Millwall v Watford - 2.40 Watford

  • Another toughie, so says the market.

Millwall - 16th

  • Only 2 wins since 23rd October 2020.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • No win in 8 at home, conceding in all of those matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, one at fulltime.
  • All draws v top 12 (4 matches). Not scored that 2nd goal v the top 9.

Watford - 3rd

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Loss, Win away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away, 3 at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 17th and lower, keeping it below 1 goal scored and 1 goal conceded.
  • 5/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these 2. Important to acknowledge. If Watford's form v 17th and lower extends up to 16th, they they may not lose, and will keep Millwall to one goal maximum. Indeed that is the most Millwall have scored v the top 12 at home.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

19:45 - Braga v Gil Vicente - 1.33 Braga

Braga - 5th

  •  3 losses since the 3rd October 2020 came away from home.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored first in 5/6 at home.
  • 100% wins v 12th and lower.
  • 1-0 wins at home v 15th and 17th.

Gil Vicente - 16th

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • A draw and 2 losses last 3 matches.
  • Scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side.
  • 6 goals conceded away came last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • Braga's odds are right. Solid winning pattern at home, 100% wins v 12th and lower and Gil Vicente not beating a top 8 side.
  • Gil Vicente do score away from home so note that.

21:15 - Boavista v Sporting Lisbon - 1.55 Sporting Lisbon

Boavista - 18th

  • Only 1 win did come v Benfica.
  • 5 draws and 2 losses last 7 matches.
  • Did beat Benfica at home but losses at home v 2nd, 5th and 6th.

Sporting Lisbon - 1st

  • Unbeaten.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 7 away matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • If Sporting continue to score 2 goals, that should ensure the win, or score draw worst case scenario. Benfica, last night, remember, did not score their usual 2 goals.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:45 - Zwolle v Heracles - 2.25 Zwolle

Zwolle - 12th

  • Only 3 wins in 15 matches.
  • 2 wins at home v 2nd and 10th.

Heracles - 11th

  • 4 wins and 2 losses last 6 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Loss away.

Conclusions

  • Finish this one early. No strong pre-match patterns.

19:00 - Emmen v PSV Eindhoven - 1.28 PSV Eindhoven

Emmen - 18th

  • No win.
  • Scored and conceded in 8/9 home matches.
  • Conceded last 9 matches at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v top 8 at home. All defeats home and away v the top 5.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.

PSV Eindhoven - 3rd

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Loss, Draw, Draw, Win, Draw, Win away.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 matches away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 9/13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • PSV score and concede away but must eye the win today against an Emmen without a win. Tight 2-1 win for PSV last head to head.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

20:00 - Groningen v Den Haag - 1.44 Groningen

Groningen - 6th

  • Only 3 defeats since 4th October 2020.
  • Last 2 defeats were 0-1 only.
  • Conceded last 6 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • All wins home and away v 13th and lower. 0-1 win last head to head.
  • 8/10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

ADO Den Haag - 16th

  • Only 2 wins did come away from home.
  • Scored in their last 4 away.
  • No win v top 12.
  • 17/21 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Groningen must be eyeing the win here. 100% wins v 13th and lower.
  • They do have a lot of 0-0's at halftime but rare 0-0 at fulltime.