Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, December 26, 2017

There is no way I can wriggle out of Boxing Day lunch with my brother. Don't tell him but I can get Betfair on my mobile! I cannot see a way of doing a live chat.I will do a shortlist at DRT Facebook and will highlight the stats which I am taken with, in bold below.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Tottenham v Southampton - 1.37 Tottenham

  • 1-4 and 2-1 Tottenham last 2 head to heads.

Tottenham (5th)

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 8 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten v 9th and lower.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Southampton (13th)

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Have not scored 2 goals in a match away.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side.
  • Not conceded first 1/2 hour of their away matches.

Conclusions

  • Spurs were entitled to beat Burnley (Burnley only played 1 top 10 team at home) and it was welcoming to see a Kane hatrick.
  • Spurs should be confident if that goal scoring begins today. Southampton are yet to score that 2nd goal in a game and if that pattern continues, they are obviously layable if scoring first.
  • Take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

15:00 - West Brom v Everton - 2.56 West Brom

  • New managers suggests head to heads are irrelevant.

West Brom (19th)

  • 5 games in for Alan Par(tridge)dew.
  • Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss, Loss sofar.
  • 0-0-0-1-1 scored recently.
  • At home under Pardew, 0-0 and 1-2 v Man Utd.
  • Season-long - no win since the first 2 wins first 2 matches of the season.

Everton (9th)

  • 5 matches under Big Sam. Win, Draw, Win, Win Draw. A huge impact.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws now for Everton.
  • 1-1 v Liverpool and 0-1 win v Newcastle last 2 aways.0-1-1-1-0 goals conceded under Big Sam.

Conclusions

  • There is a concern with new managers for unreadability and therefore potential shocks.
  • On the 5 match form for these managers, defences are paramount for both teams. For me, Everton look the more solid team here, scoring goals readily.
  • West Brom's ability to keep Liverpool to 0-0 suggests they will be tough to score against but under Pardew they have scored 0-0-0-1-1 goals.

15:00 - Watford v Leicester - 2.54 Watford

Watford (10th)

  • 5 losses in 6 matches yet still top 10?
  • A possible 9 first team players absent today
  • only 2 wins in 11 matches
  • failed to score in only 5 matches
  • only 2 0-0's at halftime in 14 of the last 16 matches
  • only 1 win v top 12
  • that 2 goal a game sequence has not shown itself in 5 matches now

leicester (8th)

  • unbeaten in 7 away matches
  • only 2 defeats in 13 matches
  • failed to score in only 4 matches
  • no 0-0 at halftime in 11 matches
  • scored and conceded in their last 5 away
  • unbeaten at halftime away
  • all defeats bar 1 has come v top 6 teams
  • both teams scored in 7 of 9 away matches

Conclusions

  • A mystery why Leicester are not strong favourites here. If Watford are unable to score that 2nd goal, they will not win today against a Leicester in good nick and generally only lose to top 6 teams
  • I would lay any Watford lead here and , although both teams may score, Leicester should not lose.

15:00 - Man Utd v Burnley - 1.27 Man Utd

  • 0-0 and 0-2 Man Utd in the last 2 head to heads.

Man Utd (2nd)

  • A 2-2 with Leicester mid week really should have been a win. Leicester's 2nd goal was simply down to Smalling being too injured to defend what would have been a routine ball in.
  • Only 1 home loss v Man City.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • No draw at home in 9 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Conceded only 1 goal at home outside of that Man City loss.
  • 14 of 22 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Burnley (7th)

  • 0-1-1-0-0 scored in recent matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 3-0 loss away v 1st and 2-3 win away v Chelsea (3rd).
  • That Chelsea win was the only win v top 8. It is anomolous as Chelsea were down to 10 men.

Conclusions

  • Best case for Burnley today for me would be a 1-1. Their win v Chelsea is an anomoly and they do not typically win v top 8 teams.
  • Man Utd at home outside of Man City are extremely tough to score against.
  • On the basis that Burnley will struggle v top 10 (as they did at home mid week) I am with United here. No surprises if 0-0 for a while but United (with 14 of 22 goals scored 2nd half) should eventually score.

15:00 - Huddersfield v Stoke - 2.6 Huddersfield

Huddersfield (11th)

  • Only 1 loss in 4 was v Chelsea.
  • Last 3 home losses v Tottenham, Man City and Chelsea.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Losses at home came v top 5.
  • 0-0, 1-0, 1-0 at home v 13th and lower.

Stoke City (14th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 away win v 10th was a 0-1.
  • 14 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Stoke are tough to read away from home and that I guess explains the 2.6 odds quote.
  • No thanks! One of the inplay stats if I play at all.

15:00 - Chelsea v Brighton - 1.21 Chelsea

Chelsea (3rd)

  • Only 4 losses.
  • Only 1 loss in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • 5/5 wins at home v 9th and lower.

Brighton (12th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • 3 consecutive away losses to nil.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score away v top 11.

Conclusions

  • You don' score, you don't win.
  • This should present a winnable opportunity for Chelsea with simply a goal or two.
  • 0-0 would seem to be the only tradable opportunity i.e. if 0-0 at halftime.

15:00 - Bournemouth v West Ham - 1.76 Bournemouth

Bournemouth (18th)

  • No win in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Not played bottom 7 at home.

West Ham (17th)

  • 8 matches into Moyes tenure and only 2 wins.
  • 0-3 win v Stoke latest away augurs well for today.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches but very open in a 2-3 loss v Newcastle.

Conclusions

  • West Ham are still tough to read. 3 clean sheets in 4 but then conceding 3 goals in the other match.
  • One for the inplay stats.

17:30 - Liverpool v Swansea - 1.19 Liverpool

  • Swansea have won 2 of the last 3 head to heads.

Liverpool (4th)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 10 and in 9 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All clean sheets v 11th and lower at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 6th and lower.

Swansea (20th)

  • 6 consecutive away defeats.
  • All defeats bar 1 draw home and away v top 10.
  • 1-0 loss away v 3rd and 0-0 v 5th.

Conclusions

  • Mercifully for Liverpool fans, they are strong defensively at home. They are yet to concede v 11th and under and if their defence is behaving itself then they should win to nil.
  • Do note 1-0 and 0-0 for Swansea v 3rd and 5th. Could signal a defensive showdown.
  • Swansea's new manager Leon Britton is inexperienced and has only 1 match under his belt. I see vulnerability.
  • Liverpool have a lot of 0-0's at halftime so note that.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

13:00 - Millwall v Wolves - 2 Wolves

  • 1-0 Wolves the last time these 2 teams met.

Millwall (17th)

  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 8 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not played top 4 at home. Did beat 5th, 7th and 9th at home.

Wolves (1st)

  • 3 1-0 wins in 4 matches. They will be caught short if reliant on this scoreline as it pressurises defence.
  • 8 wins and a 0-0 last 9 matches.
  • 7 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 8th and lower.
  • Scored first in 8/11 away.
  • Led at halftime in 7/11 away.

Conclusions

  • There is some unknown here. Millwall are yet to meet the top 4 at home. They beat 5th, 7th and 9th at home.
  • Wolves are in excellent form. I do though get the impression the Millwall rear guard will be in full effect today (as occurs away v the big boys).
  • I would not be surprised if there is a 0-0 at halftime here. On form, Wolves should not lose but as I say we are yet to see Millwall perform v top 4 at home albeit they have been solid v 5th-9th.

15:00 - Barnsley v Preston - 2.24 Preston

  • 0-0 and 1-1 in the last 2 matches.

Barnsley (20th)

  • 6 defeats and a 0-0 in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • 4 defeats without scoring in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Not beaten the top 12.
  • All defeats at home v top 6 without scoring.
  • 8 /11 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Preston (8th)

  • No win in 7 matches.
  • 2 1-2 wins and a 1-1 in their last 3 away.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • 1-2, 1-2, 1-3 away wins v 19th and lower.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form,Preston have a good chance of winning today. Barnsley tend to score at home in the first half and may score first. I would certainly lay Barnsley if Barnsley did score first today.

15:00 - Birmingham v Norwich - 2.34 Norwich

  • 2 consecutive Norwich wins in head to heads.

Birmingham (24th)

  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 11 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 wins v 5th and lower home and away.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Norwich (16th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 away matches.
  • No draw in 10 away matches.
  • Losses v 17th and 23rd away.

Conclusions

  • Not for me thanks. Both sides are tough to read.

15:00 - Bristol City v Reading - 1.93 Bristol City

  • 3 consecutive Reading wins ended with a Bristol City win in the last 4 head to heads.

Bristol City (4th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 3 consecutive 2-1 wins ended with a 1-1 last match.
  • 3 wins in 4 home matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • Have had 0-0's v 15th, 16th and 17th.

Reading (14th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Wins v 3rd and 5th away from home.
  • 13 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Reading have thrown a spanner in the works with their 2 wins away v 3rd and 5th teams. Bristol City are 4th at home.
  • On form, bar what seems those anomolous Reading wins above, Bristol City should be feeling confident here. They are unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • Yet more intrigue? Bristol City 0-0's v 15th, 16th and 17th.
  • Is 0-0 in play? if you think so, back 0-0 pre match and cash out at halftime.

15:00 - Burton v Leeds - 2.14 Leeds

  • 2-1 Burton and 5-0 Leeds in the last 2 head to heads.

Burton (21st)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • 7 consecutive home defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 11 home matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 7 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • All defeats at home v top 10.
  • All defeats bar 1 home and away v top 10.
  • Opponents have scored first in 9/11 at home.

Leeds (5th)

  • 4 wins and a draw in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 matches.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • All wins home and away v 18th and lower scoring 2/3 goals.

Conclusions

  • Leeds have a strong winning record v 18th and lower, scoring 2/3 goals and meet a team with 7 (count them!) consecutive home defeats, conceding 2+ goals in each of their last 7 home matches.
  • It looks like a Leeds away win today. The market, I note, is a little tepid regarding Leeds.

15:00 - Cardiff v Fulham - 2.28 Cardiff

  • Both teams have scored in the last 6 matches.
  • 2-2 and 1-1 last 2 matches.

Cardiff (2nd)

  • Only 4 defeats came away from home.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Solid v 5th-12th inclusive scoring 2/3 goals in 100% wins v those positions.

Fulham (11th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 away matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No draw in 9 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • Not beaten top 6 home or away.

Conclusions

  • Cardiff are reliant on home form as their foundation. Unbeaten so far and playing a Fulham yet to beat a top 6 side.
  • Cardiff v mid table are superb and if that continues, expect 2/3 goals from the welsh side. Fulham may score - they have failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Fulham I think should be layed if scoring first.

15:00 - Hull v Derby - 2.64 Derby

  • 3 Derby wins in 4 head to heads were emphatic.

Hull (19th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 away defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Goal fests at home. Recent total goals in home matches - 3-7-5-4-4-5-5 goals.
  • 2-1-3-3-2-3-2 goals conceded in recent home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 11 team.
  • 5 defeats home and away v top 5.
  • 18 of 28 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Derby County (3rd)

  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches away.
  • 6 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 7 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • v 15th and lower, unbeaten.

Conclusions

  • Another match where I would have thought Derby's odds would be shorter. Hull are involved in high scoring matches so there is always a chance that a possible 2 goals scored could see a win.
  • But Derby are undefeated away, and have 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • Hull are yet to beat a top 11 team so I would hope to lay any Hull lead, and they tend to score at home, albeit generally without winning.
  • In the hope for goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

15:00 - Ipswich v QPR - 2.34 Ipswich

  • 2 consecutive QPR 2-1 wins in head to heads.

Ipswich (10th)

  • 3 wins in 5 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Have beaten 22nd, 23rd and 24th at home.

QPR (18th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 11 away matches.
  • No away 0-0.
  • All defeats away v top 13.
  • Only away win v 24th.

Conclusions

  • QPR on form are highly likely to concede and really do not have the form to trouble a top 10 team. Lay QPR if QPR scores first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

15:00 - Middlesbrough v Bolton - 1.52 Middlesbrough

  • 5 consecutive Boro wins in head to heads.

Middlesbrough (9th)

  • 3 of the last 4 defeats came away.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • All bar 1 defeat at home came v top 3.
  • 6 wins and a 2-2 home and away v 18th and lower.
  • All clean sheet wins v 21st and lower.

Bolton (23rd)

  • 3 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 3-0-5-3 goals conceded in their last 4 away.
  • No win in 11 away.
  • v top 10 away, failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
  • 8 goals conceded away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • On form Boro should be eyeing a win against a Bolton largely failing to score v top 10 and also conceding 11 goals in their last 4 away.
  • Lay any late draw as Boro are in a draw-avoidance pattern at the moment.

15:00 - Nottm Forest v Sheff Wed - 2.4 Nottm Forest

  • 6 consecutive Sheff Wed wins in head to heads.

Nottm Forest (13th)

  • Only one draw came last match.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 5 wins in 6 home matches.
  • No draw in 11 at home.
  • Wins at home v 16th, 17th, 18th and 20th and 23rd. 1-0 wins only v 16th and 17th at home.

Sheff Wed (15th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • No win in 7.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 2 away wins v 6th and 11th.
  • 12 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Head to heads see advantage Sheff Wed today but will that translate today?
  • Forest have momentum to them at home with 5 wins in 6 home matches.
  • Lay any late draw as Forest keep avoiding the draws?
  • Lay Sheff Wed if they score first today. A feeling they are vulnerable (only 4 clean sheets all season).

15:00 - Sheff Utd v Sunderland - 1.74 Sheff Utd

  • 1-2 Sheff Utd in the most recent head to head.

Sheff Utd (7th)

  • No win in 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Only 1 home draw.
  • Wins at home v 19th and 20th.

Sunderland (22nd)

  • Only 3 clean sheets came within the last 5 matches.
  • No win v top 10.
  • 2-2-1-5-3 goals conceded away v 6th-12th inclusive.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • I would lay Sunderland if Sunderland scored first because Sunderland have scored 2-2-1-5-3 goals recently away.
  • Sheff Utd themselves are conceding. Sunderland do score away but it seems without winning v the top 10.

19:30 - Brentford v Aston Villa - 2.4 Brentford

  • 0-0 last head to head.

Brentford (12th)

  • Only 2 losses in 16 matches.
  • No defeat in 10 matches at home.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • 3 draws and a win at home v top 5.
  • 13 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Aston Villa (6th)

  • Only 5 defeats.
  • 3 draws and a loss in 4 matches.
  • 3 of 4 away losses came v top 3.
  • Lost v 14th away.

Conclusions

  • Only 2 losses in 16 matches plays only 5 defeats. Making this a tough puzzle to solve.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Dundee v Celtic - 1.25 Celtic

  • 5 consecutive Celtic wins in head to heads.

Dundee (10th)

  • 2 wins in 3 matches came at home and one was v Rangers.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Lost 0-1 to 2nd and beat 3rd and 5th at home.
  • Only 2 losses in 7 matches.

Celtic (1st)

  • Only 1 loss came last away match.
  • Failed to score only in that defeat.
  • No win in 3 away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All wins home and away v 9th and lower.
  • 0-1 wins only away v 11th and 12th.

Conclusions

  • Dundee are in good form at home (very recent form). They beat Rangers which is very eye-catching.
  • The do meet a Celtic losing their last away match and without a win  in 3 away matches. So Celtic have had the colley-wobbles.
  • 0-1 wins away for Celtic v 11th and 12th is also a concern but a pointer to what may occur today if 0-0 for a while during this match.
  • There is an argument for laying a Celtic lead as they may be nervy but I cannot foresee a 2nd consecutive defeat, much less a 2nd consecutive away defeat.