Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will be live chatting what is a very busy and very interesting Tuesday night coupon. 19:00 live chat this evening I think @drtclub. Our friends the Scots have their league cup as well as the English, albeit just the one match. I quite fancy the Dutch Cup too from an in-play stats angle (18:45 start there). Add to that some Elite European league football and it is a rare auld strong Tuesday list.
See you at 19:00 then for a live chat @drtclub Twitter.

ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP (LC)

19:45 - Blackpool v QPR - 2.32 QPR

  • League One v Championship.
  • Only 2 wins in 12 in the LC for Blackpool came last 2 matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 7/8 at home albeit since 2006.
  • 4 wins in 6 for QPR in the LC.
  • Not played an away match since August 2015.
  • In-play stats for me. Will both teams score?

19:45 - Bournemouth v Blackburn - 1.54 Bournemouth

  • Premier League teams to continue performing well early doors?
  • Only 3 losses in 15 for Bournemouth in the EL came twice v Liverpool and v Chelsea so expectation is for them to cope with other-than-Premier League.
  • 3-1 and 3-0 at home latest includes v solid Middlesbrough, also from the Championship.
  • Blackburn have not met a Premier League side recently in the LC so tough to read them.
  • Expectation is for Premier League teams to continue their early successes in the LC.

19:45 - Burton v Burnley - 2.04 Burnley

  • League One v Premier League.
  • Lost at home to Man Utd and Liverpool in the LC.
  • Only 1 win in 14 for Burnley in all competitions so contextually, this match may be used to continue the momentum?
  • Only 1 win in 6 in the LC though suggests the competition is not prioritised.

19:45 - Millwall v Fulham - 2.32 Fulham

  • London derby. 2 teams from the Championship. I will leave this to the in-play stats.

19:45 - Oxford Utd v Man City - 1.13 Man City

  • 3/4 goals expected of Man City and a goal before halftime.

19:45 - Preston v Middlesbrough - 2.72 Preston

  • The market cannot pick a side. Both Championship sides adds to the concerns.
  • Similar League Cup form leaves me agreeing with the market and looking at this via the in-play stats.

19:45 - Wolves v Leicester - 2.28 Wolves

  • 2 Premier League sides meet. If I was the Wolves manager, I would engineer an early exit from this competition in favour of the more lucrative proposition of another season in the Premier League. Coming off the back of a deserved 1-1 v Man Utd, I would expect Wolves to rest some of the First Team for the visit of Leicester.
  • I cannot see the point of looking at Wolves LC form given their new status in the Premier League.
  • Leicester are an established Premier League side but have a new manager. I will check their LC form.
  • Since 2015, Leicester seem to enjoy an LC run, being as they are unbeaten in 90 minutes. They did go out of the competition 3 times in extra time/penalties. Beatings of Liverpool and a draw v Man City suggests Leicester may be eyeing the win here.
  • I would speculatively side with Leicester in the hope the Wolves management team think as I do!!

19:45 - Wycombe v Norwich - 2.06 Norwich

  • League One v Championship.
  • No win in 16 for Wycombe in the LC yet here they are. 2 consecutive score draws and nicking it in extra time/penalties.
  • No defeat in 12 for Norwich in the LC with 9 wins and 3 score draws going to extra time losses.
  • So, if a draw, Wycombe may fancy it, but on recent form, Norwich's odds look big here. They do look like they enjoy a cup run.

20:00 - Man Utd v Derby - 1.24 Man Utd

  • Premier League sides have impressed in the early rounds of the League Cup.
  • After losses to Tottenham and Brighton, United have been trying to prove a point with 3 wins and then a poor 1-1 draw v Wolves. Kudos to Wolves though.
  • 8 wins, a draw and 2 defeats in 11 matches in the LC for Man Utd suggests that they'll be making an effort today.
  • United have not lost a home LC match in 90 minutes since 2008. 5 consecutive wins.
  • 2 of Derby's 4 recent LC losses came v Premier League sides. 3 clean sheets in 4 away albeit v Grimsby, Oldham and Hull
  • I expect Man Utd not to lose.

20:00 - West Brom v C Palace - 2.52 Palace

  • Goals galore for West Brom in less rarified air. They meet a Premier League side here.
  • 3 wins in for for West Brom albeit v lesser leagues.
  • Since 2012 at home in the LC, only Man City and Liverpool have won.
  • 2 of Palace's 3 defeats in the LC recently came v Premier League opponents.
  • 3 wins in 4 largely v Championship teams.
  • The market cannot split these 2, perhaps acknowledging that West Brom have bigger fish to fry (boing boing back to the Premier League?) despite their solid home form in the LC recently.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

17:30 - Werder Bremen v Hertha Berlin - 2.16 Werder Bremen

  • 3 clean sheets and a 1-1 Werder last 4 head to heads
  • Both sides are unbeaten.
  • Both teams have scored in all Werder matches.
  • 2 1-1 draws at home. A sequence to lay today?
  • 3 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime for Werder - this is a usual characteristic.
  • 3 wins and a 2-2 for Hertha.
  • 0-2 and 2-2 away so they are scoring.
  • Expect both teams to score today? Werder like meeting Hertha in recent years.

19:30 - Bayern Munich v Augsburg - 1.12 Bayern

  • 3+ goals tend to be scored by Bayern in head to heads and that ties in with a 1.12 quote today.
  • Bayern are 'doing a Liverpool' - leading at halftime and fulltime in their 4 wins. Scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Both teams have scored in Augsburg's matches, Win, Draw, 2 defeats.
  • Augsburg may get a goal today but be simply outscored. Do expect Bayern to score before halftime.

19:30 - Hannover v Hoffenheim - 2.14 Hoffenheim

  • 2 Hannover wins and a Hoff win in the last 3 head to heads.
  • 2 draws, 2 defeats Hannover. 2 away losses the Hoff, scoring in each. Last loss may be down to pre-Champions League distraction. Both teams scored in all Hoff matches.
  • Expect a Hoff goal at least today and possibly a continuation of both teams scoring. Free scoring Leipzig scored 3 v Hannover and free-scoring Hoff may oblige too.

19:30 - Freiburg v Schalke - 2.32 Schalke

  • 2 Schalke wins to nil last season.
  • What on earth is with them this season?
  • Freiburg started with 2 defeats but since then, 3-3 and 1-3 win, scoring 3 goals in each.No 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2-3-3-1 goals conceded by Freiburg - that should be noted.
  • Schalke have 2 consecutive 0-2 home losses, and 2 consecutive 2-1 away losses. No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Based on this very limited sample indeed, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Schalke will record a win/draw at home point. But today?
  • Freiburg, for all their scoring heroics, have conceded 2-3-3-1 goals so may give Schalke that lifeline?

FRENCH LIGUE 1

18:00 - Monaco v Angers - 1.92 Monaco

  • 3 consecutive Monaco wins to nil in head to heads.
  • Only 1 win for Monaco first match of the season. Draw, Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw sees them start the season poorly. Both teams have scored in all bar 1 match, 2 consecutive 1-1 draws now. Where's this Monaco frontline?
  • 3 losses started Angers season. Then 2 wins and a draw.
  • Monaco are poor relative to last season but tend to beat Angers in head to heads. That is where I'd pin my hopes. 4 0-0's at halftime for Monaco and only 1 at fulltime suggests we lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Monaco are conceding and I would have to lay Angers if Angers score first.

18:00 - Nantes v Nice - 2.5 Nantes

  • Unappealing odds.
  • 1-1, 1-2 Nice and 1-1 last 3 head to heads.
  • Mixed bag for both teams season start.
  • 1-1, 0-1, 1-0 Nice away may be something to work with.
  • 4 Nice 0-0's at halftime in 5 matches but NONE at fulltime is something else to work with.

20:00 - Toulouse v St Etienne - 2.58 Toulouse

  • As above - unappealing odds.
  • 0-0, 0-0, 0-3 St Etienne, 0-0, 2-0 St Etienne last few head to heads.
  • Both sides have just the one loss, that came first match Toulouse.
  • Since then, 3 wins and 2 draws. Win, Win, Draw at home, scoring 2-1-1 goals so may be vulnerable if they cannot score that 2nd goal.
  • 2 St E. wins came at home. 1-1, 0-0, 4-0 loss to PSG last 3 aways.
  • Great trading team last match, going 0-1 down at home to Caen, and ending with a 2-1 win.
  • Head to heads tell us St Etienne enjoy meeting this Toulouse side but we must acknowledge Toulouse are in good form.....hence the 2.58 quote!!

ITALIAN SERIA A

20:00 - Inter v Fiorentina - 1.8 Inter

  • Inter impressed me at the weekend. I managed to watch their match v Sampdoria. A 90th minute winner but a good display away from home.
  • The home side has tended to fare well in head to heads.
  • A couple of 1-0 defeats for Inter this season. Other matches? 2-2 v Torino, 0-3 v Bologna and 0-1 v Sampdoria.
  • A feeling Inter are vulnerable to a defensive unit.
  • 3/3 wins at home for Fiorentina. 1-0 and 1-1 away v Napoli and Fiorentina suggests......a defensive unit? 79th and 60th minute concessions.
  • This may be 0-0 at halftime if Inter struggle v defensive set ups. I would lay the 0-0 2nd half but delay given the late goal concessions away by Fiorentina.
  • Head to heads point to the home side tending to come out of this unscathed. That's how I'll work this match.

SPANISH LA LIGA

19:00 - Espanyol v Eibar - 1.98 Espanyol

  • 1-1, 3-1 Eibar and 0-1 Eibar last 3 head to heads.
  • 2 wins to nil at home. Losses came away for Espanyol. In those 2 home matches, Espanyol saw a 0-0 at halftime so may continue that 2nd half scoring pattern.
  • Same form Eibar i.e. 2 wins, 2 losses, a draw. 2 wins Eibar came at home too.2-0 and 1-1 away.
  • Eibar have liked playing Espanyol historically.
  • Note Espanyol's 2nd half scoring at home IF they have not scored by halftime.

20:00 - Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano - 1.64 Sociedad

  • Last met 2016. Rayo are newly promoted.
  • Both teams scored in Sociedad's opening 4 matches, with just one win.
  • 0-1 away win v Huesca, another newly promoted side may augur well for this encounter....this time with home advantage.
  • Rayo also beat Huesca but 3 other defeats.
  • Newly promoted sides can be a mystery but I would expect Sociedad to simply outscore them today.

21:00 - Atletico Madrid v Huesca - 1.27 Atl Madrid

  • A concern, given the superb forward line, of a lack of goals for Atl Madrid. 1-1-0-1-2 goals scored this season. The inability to consistently score 2 goals has led to 2 1-1 draws and a 2-0 loss away.
  • All under 2.5 goals this season for Atl Madrid.
  • Huesca are newly promoted. They have played one of the big 3, Barcelona, and conceded 8 goals! A sign....? A great start to the season, 1-2 away win, was followed with a 2-2 away draw, but since then, 3 defeats, 2 were 0-1 at home.
  • I would expect a Madrid win....eventually.

IRISH PREMIER DIVISION

19:45 - Dundalk v Derry - 1.24 Dundalk

  • Dundalk will be eyeing 2-4 goals as per recent head to heads.
  • The title is still not won. 5 matches remain, 9 point gap to 2nd.

Dundalk (1st)

  • 15 wins and a loss for Dundalk last 16 matches.
  • Dundalk have failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 19 matches.
  • Scored in their last 14 home matches.
  • Only 1 home loss. 2-2 v Derry at home earlier this season, and 2 4 goals wins away at Derry.

Derry (7th)

  • 12...losses in 16 matches.
  • No draw in 16 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 13 matches and last 7 away.
  • Have conceded 2 goals minimum away at top 4.

Conclusions

  • Dundalk will have one hand on the title with a win today. Expect 2-4 goals from Dundalk if on song.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on an expectation for goals and NOT on any stats foundation.
  • Lay any late draw. These 2 are avoiding the draw like I avoid being stuck in a lift with Su Pollard on LSD.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

18:00 - Orebro v Sirius - 2 Orebro

  • 3-4 Orebro and 2-4 Orebro in the last 2 head to heads.

Orebro (9th)

  • 3 wins in 4.
  • 2 consecutive home 2-1 wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 11 home matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 3/3 wins v 14th and lower, both teams scoring.
  • 11 goals scored 2nd half and 14 conceded 2nd half at home.

Sirius (14th)

  • 4 losses and a 1-1 last 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 100% losses away v top 10.

Conclusions

  • I will back over 3.5 goals if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Both teams could score today but on seasonal form Orebro not lose.