A very sparse coupon football-wise today so I think my main focus will be on the French Open.
Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.
Remember the strategies:
Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches
Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised
Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.
Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.
Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).
Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.
Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.
Review of yesterday.
I gave you the poor over 2.5 goals stat in the Silkeborg match and that fact that if Randers were to win, it is likely to be to nil.Well, they won 0-2 and kept the under 2.5 goals pattern going in Randers away matches.
Norwich scored 2 early goals so my speculative 0-0 pre match trade did not work out. These matches are far too tough to get an angle in, so perhaps are best left alone. They are one-off matches.
The Eredivise side Breda won 3-0 as per the market's expectations.
Laying the 2nd half draw in the Copenhagen match paid off, as did laying the 0-0 2nd half as Copenhagen nicked a 65th minute 1-0 win. Laying 0-0 halftime score was not a success. I did mention Copenhagen scored either side of halftime but got the wrong side of halftime !
Lazio v Roma I got spot on yesterday. The key stat was the 72% over 2.5 goals which did suggest both teams would score as they were in poor recent form, I could not see one team providing the 3 goals to ensure another overs match. 1-2 it ended to Roma. Did you lay any late draw as advised? It was 1-1 until an 85th minute Roma winner.
Stabaek took a 2-0 lead at home before halftime. What do you do? Well, if you read the research you'll realise that Rosenborg had scored 2+ goals in 8 of their 9 league matches this season. This match was actually a reverse of the above strategy "
Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk."
On this occasion it was the home team 2-0 up before halftime. Rosenborg went on to win 2-3! A great trade. I do hope you were on.
With the Hacken match, laying the 0-0 halftime score was a success. Falkenbergs scored first 0-1 so I layed them in the halftime market as their goal was very early in the first half. Alas Hacken did not respond . Falkenbergs scored a 2nd in the 2nd half to win 0-2. A strange result but these shocks happen more in these poorer leagues than, say, the European major leagues between August -April. We cannot get it right all of the time, but as ever the search for a value lay and back ensures that losses are minimised.
Istanbul v Fenerbahce was a cracker. Istanbul scored first. I layed them. They went 2-0 up. I layed them. Why? Because this was a must-win for Fenerbahce otherwise Galatasary would have one hand on the title. I had given up hope, when suddenly Fenerbahce scored 2 late goals for a very welcome 2-2. They promptly imploded with 4 men sent off and Istanbul missed a late penalty.
CSKA won 3-0 in a match I did not trade as there was an argument for backing and opposing them!
In the French Open yesterday, Alize Cornet won at 1.98 for you speculators of Frenchies at the French Open.
Fabio Fognini won 3-0 as expected. He was a banker for me at a tasty 1.4 for my banker bets.
As advised I layed Groth after he won the first set, and Cuevas, on cue, won the next 3 sets. When an underdog wins the first set, you can either lay him in the match odds market, or lay him to win 3-0 sets as his 3-0 sets odds would reduce dramatically. The scoreline also gives something away. A 7-6 win in the first set suggests that the lottery that is a tie-breaker, was won by the underdog. 7-6 is hardly emphatic as well so that should increase your confidence in opposing the underdog a set up.
My favourite lady, Carla Suarez Navarro won in 2 sets. I have backed her to win the French Open as a trade.
3-0 for Berdych as expected . Another 3-0 banker at odds of 1.22
As advised, I layed Elias after he won the first set, as he was playing an onion-breathed Frenchie Paire. Paire fought back and won the match.
Nice of Lucas Pouille yesterday to win the first set against the better ranked Gilles Simon. Another great lay of the underdog a set up .
Cheryl Fernando-Verdasco won in 3 sets yesterday as you would expect of a 1.16 shot
I did lay Svitolina a set up, but 'twas not to be. She won 2-0
Did you speculate on Bellucci 3-0 sets at evens yesterday? He won in 3 sets.
Stosur underlined her recent strong form with a 2 sets win
I layed Tommy Robredo in the 3-0 market as advised, and Golubev , having read the script, won the first set as he had done in recent head to heads. A nice lay there! Robredo went on to win with ease.
My angle in the Kokkanikis match was to lay him if he won the first set. He didn't though!
krajinovic won the first set against Goffin, so I layed him and Goff won the next 3.
Nick Krygios won
Maria Sharapova won in 2 sets.
Gael Monfils won. As advised, I lbacked him at 1.74 3-0 set betting and traded out 2nd set. He lost a set so it was a wise move.
With Riske v Errani, I advised laying the first set winner. THat worked a treat as the other player won the 2nd set!
Andy Murray was another 3-0 set betting banker and he obliged as expected.
I layed Bolelli 2-0 up but he obliged in 3 sets.
Guernsey's finest Heather Watson won in 2 sets.
I put a few bets into a mug punter accumulator and was only let down by Monfils . I went for 3-0 sets and he was 5-4 up on serve in the 2nd set and blew it, the cheese eating surrender monkey. So near to a 15/1 payout! I hope you enjoyed the tennis. I was pleasantly surprised that a lot of the advices were spot-on yesterday.
On to today!
5pm - Parnu Linnameeskond v Nomme Kalju - 1.08 away we should see a goal before halftime.
- Nomme have scored 5 goals in 2 of the last 3 head to heads.
- This is 9th of 10 v 2nd in the Estonian top league.
- Only 1 win all season for Parnu. 11 of 12 matches saw them conceding 2+ goals
- 8 losses in their last 9 matches.
- Conceded in all matches.
- No draw for Nomme Kalju this season . All wins bar 3 consecutive defeats.
Profitable In-Play Opportunities
- The odds as you know suggest goals before halftime, 4+ goals from the away side and an end to their 3 match losing streak
- Let's hope it is 0-0 for a while so we can exploit the short lay in the 0-0 halftime score lay.
7pm - Flora Tallinn v Tammeka Tartu - 1.08 home we should see a goal before halftime
- 4 and 3 scored by Flora in the last 2 head to heads where both teams scored.
- This is 1st v 8th in Estonia.
- 9 wins, 2 losses and a draw for Flora this season. They are not as emphatic as the 1.08 quote today suggests. 3 goals maximum from Flora Tallin so far this season. They are expected to let loose today
- Tammeka have conceded 3-4-2-3-4-5-3 in defeats which fits in perfectly with the 1.08 odds.
Profitable In-Play Opportunities
FRENCH OPEN TENNIS
10am - Kiki Bertens v Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.24 Svetlana
- Another high scoring match expected and usual rules apply. Lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as you can. Also expect 4+ goals today from Flora Tallin.
84th v 18th in the world. Quite a disparity. Kuznetzova had an excellent Madrid open, reaching the Final and beating Sharapova in the semi finals. She plays a player with 2 1st round and a 2nd round exit in her last 3 matches. This is Svetlana's to win .
10am - Marin Cilic v Robin Haase - 1.35 Cilic.
10th v 80th in the world. I did not know Cilic was knocking on the top 10. That's a surprise. Top 10 are usually a class apart from the rest. Logically, they should dispatch of an 80th ranked player with ease.
All straight sets wins for Cilic in head to heads. In 2011 here in France, he won in 3 sets but 2 were tiebreaker sets. These 2 have not met since 2011 so the relevance of these head to heads is difficult to gauge.
Cilic was poor in Madrid and Italy, going out in the first round, but did reach the quarter finals in Geneva but played the likes of Rublev and Giraldo - with the greatest of respect, not 2 of the world's finest players. Haase reached the final in Aix au Provence on clay and won. Yes, a lesser ranked players' tournament, but it suggests an affinity with clay. We might see a tie breaker or 2 here today . Cilic gives the impression that clay is not his best surface. I would lay him 3-0 sets if Cilic wins the first set. The market expects the rankings differential to be the telling factor today I think. A top 10 player should beat an 80th ranked player.
10am - Daniel Gimeno Traver v Joao Souza - 1.38 Traver
66th v 78th in the rankings . Again, a short priced favourite considering there are only 12 spots between the 2.
Perhaps telling is the fact Souza has gone out in the first round in his last 4 clay tournaments. Gimeno-Traver has reached the semi-final in Nastase Tiriac on clay, and the quarters in Istanbul, on grass, losing 1-2 to Federer.
On form therefore, Gimeno-Traver has the momentum . Souza's swift exits from clay tournaments suggests his fortunes lay in other surfaces?
10am - Jerzy Janowicz v Maxime Hamou - 1.25 Jerzy
Hmm.Maxime Hamou. Sounds like a French man to me. Hence the reason 3-0 Jerzy is over evens. We have top 50 playing 225 in the rankings, and that should be telling today unless home support galvanises Hamou
jerzy's clay form recently has been dire 3 consecutive 1st round exits. Hamou is predominantly on the Challenger circuit. I personally wouldn't be backing Jerzy 3-0 but the rankings do look compelling. To engineer a low odds lay, therefore, lay Jerzy if he leads 2-0 in the set betting.
10am - Petra Kvitova v Marina Erakovic - 1.09 Petra
4th v 80th in the world. This should be as emphatic as the odds suggest. 3-0 to Petra in head to heads. Kvitova has dropped only 1 set in the head to heads, in 2013 on hard court. 6-4 6-4 this time last year. Expect, therefore, a tight match today with Petra getting a possible single break required to win the set. I think if we see 6-4 or something like that, that 1.09 odds should increase in-play.
10am - Lukas Lacko v David Ferrer - 1.01 Ferrer
1.11 for 3-0 sets says it all. 94th v 8th in the world and 3-0 to Ferrer in head to heads. All straight sets wins and one in France in 2012.
I am not sure where the value lies today. 1.01 is of course layable and to be encouraged.
10am - Vasek Pospisil v Joao Sousa - 1.26 Sousa
53rd v 44th in the rankings. Again no noticeable gap but a huge discrepancy in the match odds.
These 2 have no head to heads and in these types of matches, surprises can spring up . The market has registered the fact that Sousa reached the Final of the Geneva Clay Open so does have very recent strong performances on this surface. Pospisil beat Sick-Note Del Potro in Miami. He has an ambulance on stand by whenever he plays so this form is not strong. He lost to Dimitrov in the 2nd round in Miami on hard.
Pospisil has no recent form for us to weigh up so it's a case of taking Sousa's Geneva form and following him on clay today.
11:15am - Jeremy Chardy v Michael Berrer - 1.21 Chardy
. A Bonnet de douche, Rodders. Chardy is French, and 45th in the world, playing 145th ranked Berrer.
Berrer beat Chardy in 2013 in Germany on clay. The middle set was a tiebreaker win for Chardy.
Chardy has had some poor 1st round exits on clay recently in Estoril ( weak tournament) and Madrid. He went out in 2 sets to Andy Murray in Italy.
Berrer reached the semi's in a recent Challenger hard court tournament and the 2nd round in a clay challenger. This is a step-up today . Will home support be telling again for the frenchie?
I would not go 3-0 sets win for Chardy as his very recent clay form is very poor unless those tournaments were practice for this one.
11:15am - Quentin Halys v Rafael Nadal - 1.01
- Nadal is unbackable here and I always encourage laying 1.01 as a couple of quid's risk can produce a 200 quid profit if he implodes.
Halys does not have a ranking. He is a frenchman so might gain something early on, and then capitulate. 1.11 for 3 sets to nil tells you everything.
Nadal may not be the clay king he was, but it takes a good un to beat him - Murray and Wawrinka latest.
11:30am -Nicolas Almagro v Alexandr Dolgopolov - 1.56 home
- When Dolgo gave Nadal a game at Monaco a few years back I thought he could be a future Grand Slam Champion. He is an exciting player but alas does not have the clinical ruthlessness of a Novak.
This is 154th v 56th in the rankings. 2-2 in head to heads suggest we lay the first set winner to be winning 3-0 in set betting.
The last head to head was in BRazil, on clay, in 2014. Almagro took the first set, then Dolgo won the next 2.
QUarter Finals for Almagro in Estoril on clay is encouraging. Lost 1-2 to Novak in Italy 2nd round on clay.
3 consecutive 2nd round exits for Dolgopolov suggests that both players will win a set today and 1.56 may not be the lowest price for Dolgopolov in this match and is eminently layable, more so if he wins the first set as the odds will be shorter.
11:30am - Karin Knapp v Caroline Wozniacki - 1.22 Woz.
A lesson for Rory McIlroy that he needs to go to Specsavers, chucking Caroline. 42nd v 5th in the world. A top 5 player should win in 2 straight sets against a lower ranked opponent.
1.65 for 2-0 to Caroline is enticing.
It's 2-0 to Caroline in head to heads. 2013 and 2014 head to heads. IN 2013 one of the sets was 7-5. In 2014, Knapp won the first set, and Caroline won the next 2.
I would not be confident in a straight sets win for Caroline. She did, though, post 3 2-0 wins in Madrid before a 1-2 loss to Sharapova in the quarter final.
Knapp is coming off a tournament win in Nurnberg on clay so must be extremely optimistic of being competitive.
I would lay 2-0 Woz set betting if she wins the first set as Knapp did lose 7-5 in 2013 after a 6-1 loss 1st set - ergo she could be really competitive 2nd set and we could see a tradeable swing in the 2-0 set betting odds.
11:30am - Tim Smyczek v Kevin Anderson - 1.09 Anderson
73rd v 17th in the world rankings. It's 0-2 to Anderson in head to heads. Anderson lost the first set on hard in 2014 in Florida and won the next 2 sets .
1.71 for 3-0 set betting is about the same as Monfils and Gael dropped a set yesterday
Tim reached the quarters of a recent challenger clay event. Anderson went out first round in Madrid and went out to Federer on clay in Italy.The 2nd set was 5-7 so he has attacking qualities if behind.
Anderson likely to win, but 3-0 might be a stretch to have confidence in. Let's hope Tim nicks the first set!
11:45am - Stefano Napolitano v Thiemo De Bakker - 1.28 Bakker
unranked Stefano v 133rd ranked de Bakker. No head to heads. De Bakker reached the final of a challenger clay event in Bordeaux, losing to Kokkanikis. He beat Robin Haase and Lucas Pouille on the way. Pouille took a set off Simon yesterday.
I would not be 100% confident about putting my faith in a 133rd ranked player.
Napolitano makes a mean ice cream but is an unknown quantity which suggests some leverage in laying de Bakker at such short odds. 1.29 will not produce a large liability.
12:30pm - Illya Marchenko v Carlos Berlocq - 1.34 Berlocq
127th v 111th in the rankings. Again, too tight to really justify a 1.34 quote for one player, unless.....
No head to heads.
Marchenko has been playing exclusively in Challenger events.
Berlocq has gone out in the 2nd round and 1st round in his recent 2 clay events.
I don't think this will be 3-0 so lay the first set winner in the 3-0 set betting market. Hopefully the odds will be short enough.
12:45pm - Richard Gasquet v Germain Gigounon - 1.03 Gasquet
Top french player Gasquet expected to shine here against another frenchie.
21st v 209th in the world. This should be emphatic . 1.42 for 3-0 is enticing. The concern? Germain clicks into Greer infront of home support. Gasquet has gone out to Ferrer and Berdych in his last 2 Clay tournaments so is unlikely to go deep here .
12:45pm - Novak Djokovic v Jarkko Nieminen - 1.01 Novak
1st v 87th in the rankings. 3-1 to Novak in head to heads. 3 consecutive straight sets wins for Novak. 6-4-6-3 for Novak in Monaco in 2013
There is collateral form. Nieminen lost 0-2 to Federer. Novak beat Federer 2-0 in the Final in Italy on clay.
Expect 3-0 and , as I say,lay any player at 1.01 just incase....
12:45pm - Andreas Seppi v John Isner - 1.41 Isner
Isner is a player is solid form since the Davis Cup in Scotland.
I would always be on his side given the magnificent form. He reached the semi final in Nice and was beaten by Nadal in Italy. As ever with Isner , a tie breaker is not far away.
39th v 16th in the rankings. 5 sets in the Australian Open in 2010 and 3 sets in Roma in 2012.
Seppi could take a set today. As Isner tends to go to tiebreakers , it is not inconcievable that Seppi could take a tie breaker. 7-6 and 7-5 in 2012 when these 2 met.
1pm - Jelena Jankovic v Sesil Karatantcheva - 1.33 Jelena.
25th v 106th in the rankings. The last head to head, for Sesil, came in 2005 so is redundant.
Jankovic went to the quarter finals in Strasbourg but retired it seems. A niggle? Sesil recently lost to Sam Stosur on clay and went out in the 2nd round of the Miami Open.
Lay Jankovic if she wins the first set. She retired in Strasbourg,so the lay would be based on that.
2pm - Grigor Dimitrov v Jack Sock - 1.28 Dimitrov
11th v 37th in the rankings. 2.7 for 3-0 Dimitrov
4-1 in head to heads for Dimitrov.
In 2014, Sock won the first set and Dimitrov won the next 2 sets.
Dimitrov reached the quarter finals in Madrid and lost to Nadal. He went out for Fognini in Italy .
Jack Sock won the US mens clay court championship final, went out to Tsonga in the 2nd round, and 1st round in italy and Nice.
Sock has taken a set at least off opponents in the last 3 matches. I would not therefore back Dimitrov 3-0 today. I do expect Dimi to win eventually and would lay 3-0 sets if Dimi wins the first set.
2:15pm - Belinda Bencic v Daniela Hantuchova - 1.41 Bencic
35th v 59th in the rankings. 1-1 in head to heads. 6-1 7-6 to Bencic on hard court in 2015. The 2nd set was nice and close and suggests we lay Bencic 2-0 sets especially if she wins the first set. This will be as a trade. If Daniela can take a set to a tie breaker, the odds will rise dramatically.
2:15pm - Serena Williams v Andrea Hlavackova - 1.03 Serena
1st v 190th. This should be 2-0 at 1.15 . Yet again, lay 1.03 shots . The downside is minimal and the upside is massive and Serena might tear one of his biceps or get a niggle in one of his leg muscles. I expect Mike Tyson's twin brother to win with ease.