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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 25, 2015

Well, the Irish Premier League was surprisingly readable after only 3 matches as Cork won with ease and Longford scored 2 goals against a Bray side yet to score this season. Stick Bray in your notebooks. Teams do not go through the season without scoring. International Break all this week so there will be no live chat at the weekend. A pity as we were on fire this weekend gone, in particular Saturday where live chatters made a nice profit from minimal outlay.

5pm - Georgia v Malta  - 1.43 home

Standout Stats

  • No head to heads since 2011. Head to heads were surprisingly tight back them and prior to 2011.

Georgia

  • Only 3 wins in 18 matches in all competitions were against Liechtenstein, Saudi Arabia and Gibraltar. How do Malta fit in?
  • Beat Malta 1-0 at home back in 2010.
  • Recent friendly wins have come against Moldova, Albania, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein and Saudi Arabia.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 at home in friendlies.

Malta

  • Only 3 wins in 21 matches in all competitions came against Liechtenstein, Armenia and Faroe Islands.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 aways.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 friendlies, with 2 1-0 losses v Gibraltar and Slovakia.
  • Recent wins in friendlies came against Luxembourg, San Marino and Liechtenstein.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Malta are a small step above the minnows and tend to beat them. Georgia I would say are a slight level above Malta and should not lose today despite head to heads being tight, albeit from 2011 and earlier.
  • Malta have had a real struggle scoring so doubtful there will be any DRT.
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5pm - Swaziland v South Africa  - 1.23 away

Standout Stats

  • 0-3 to South Africa in recent head to heads came in a friendly. All 3 goals came away from home

Swaziland

  • Only 4 wins in 21 matches, 3 of them were 1-0 v Lesotho ( twice), and Botswana.
  • No win in 14 at home, failing to score in 9 matches. Did not score more than 1 goal in recent home matches.
  • Only 2 wins in recent friendlies against the teams above.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 home matches.

South Africa

  • Since May 2014, only 2 losses v Algeria and Ghana.
  • Only 2 losses in 11 away matches were v Nigeria and Algeria.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 friendlies was against Brazil.
  • 1-0-2-1-1 scored in recent friendlies.
  • 4 draws in their last 5 away friendlies.
  • Unbeaten in 8 away friendlies.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Swaziland are poor and should not win at all.  South Africa have 4 draws in 5 away matches and this is a sequence which could end today. Lay the late draw.
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6pm - Reggiana v AC Milan  - 1.33 away

  • Lega Pro v Seria A.
  • Reggiana did draw 1-1 with Sassuolo in a friendly but that was back in 2011.
  • AC Milan have scored 2+ in 5 of the last 6 friendlies.
  • Not much else to go on.
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7:30pm - Germany v Australia- 1.19 home

Standout Stats

  • A famous 1-2 win for Australia the last time these 2 met in 2011  . Usually at home though, Germany score 4+ goals.

Germany

  • Since June 2013, only Argentina and Poland have beaten Germany.
  • This is a home game for Germany - sometimes they have neutral venues.
  • Germany in friendlies are nowhere near as consistent as they are in competitive matches.
  • Since 2012 at home, only France, Italy , and Argentina ( twice) have beaten Germany.
  • In the last 15 friendlies, Argentina ( twice ) and USA have beaten Germany in extremely competitive high scoring matches.
  • France and Argentina ( twice) are the 3 teams since 2012 to have beaten Germany at home in friendlies.

Australia.

  • Recent decent form in Asian competition but my Sunday league side would look good against Oman, Kuwait, UAE et al.
  • Only 3 wins in 13 friendlies were against Canada, Costa Rica and Saudi Arabia.
  • Only 2 wins in 10 away friendlies. FAiled to score in 6 of their last 9 away friendlies.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Team news key here and a surprise to see Australia so poor in friendlies. Experimentation perhaps?
  • It takes a big boy to beat Germany, and with home advantage they should win. Tough to get any real solid angles into the match.

7:45pm - Scotland v Northern Ireland  - 1.76 home

Standout Stats

  • These 2 last met in 2011 , a Scotland 0-3 win. This may look like a home match for Scotland but NI is but a ferry ride away so there should be a cracking atmosphere.

Scotland

  • Scotland have been tough to beat of late. Only Germany and England have beaten them since September 2013.
  • Scotland's last 5 wins were all to nil, 4 were 1-0.
  • The teams who have beaten Scotland at home have generally been top notch  - Netherlands, Spain, Wales, Belgium, England.The Wales match was like today's match, a "home" nation and gaelic derby.
  • In recent friendlies, Brazil, USA, and England ( twice) have beaten Scotland . Not a bad bunch to lose to.
  • Unbeaten in 6 consecutive home friendlies until a loss to England

NI

  • NI don't tend to win that often, in all competitions. Recent wins v Hungary, Faroes and Greece sums up NI's capabilities really.
  • Since October 2010, away from home, NI have only won 2 matches, v Hungary and Greece in Euro qualifiers recently.
  • No win in 18 friendlies, failing to score in 15 of those matches.  Failed to score in their last 5 matches.
  • Have not scored in their last 12 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I'd have to favour Scotland here. It is eye-catching to note that it takes a big team to beat them. NI failing to score in 12 aways suggests they may look to showcase new players and experiment in friendlies given the sparcity of the players they have to choose from.
  • NI will score away at some stage in a friendly, and the longer the sequence,  the near we get to that sequence ending.
  • Unlikely to see a DRT if NI continue to fail to score.
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