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UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

20:00 - Napoli v Barcelona - 2.24 Barcelona

  • The first of 2 legs. New managers both sides and their first venture into the Champions League. So I cannot possibly research or read how these managers will approach this first leg. I do note that Napoli's Gattuso has engineered a 1-0 win v the likes of Lazio and Inter Milan and a 2-1 win v Juventus. All 3 sides usually scoring freely. Is this going to be the approach this evening?

20:00 - Chelsea v Bayern Munich - 1.89 Bayern

  • Odds-on favourites Bayern Munich take on newly managered Chelsea. From Derby to the Champions League, how ill fat Frank cope?
  • Chelsea are unbeaten in 5 matches in the Champions League. They did score and concede in 4 of those 5 matches.
  • Loss, Draw, Win at home for Chelsea.
  • 6 consecutive wins in the CL for Bayern, scoring 3+ goals in 5 of those matches. Bayern are in the type of goal scoring form to dismantle Chelsea, but we have noted in Champions League matches where we expect goals, that the first halves have been 0-0's. 2nd halves have seen 2+ goals.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Luton v Brentford - 1.61 Brentford

  • 1st half outcome: Luton have drawn the first half in 9/14 home matches while there have been -2.5 goals in 11/18 Brentford away matches. Brentford have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Luton - 24th

  • 2 1-0 wins last 3 matches.
  • 2 wins and a loss last 3 at home.
  • No draw in 10.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten the top 6 home or away.
  • 71% of goals scored and conceded at home came 2nd half.

Brentford - 4th

  • 2 wins and 3 draws last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • 7-0 win v Luton last time these 2 met.
  • 3 wins and a 0-0 away v bottom 5.

Conclusions

  • Surely bottom of the league is gettable. Lay Luton if Luton score first given their 2 1-0 wins recently.

Huddersfield v Bristol City - 2.2 Huddersfield

  • 1st goal: Huddersfield have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-half teams while Bristol City have won 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Bristol City away matches against bottom-six teams.

Huddersfield - 21st

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • 47% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Have beaten 5th and 8th at home but lost 5-2 to Bristol earlier this season.
  • 62+% of goals scored and conceded at home came 2nd half.

Bristol City - 7th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 away matches.
  • No draw in 17 matches.
  • 41% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 2 losses home and away v 15th and lower. 3-2-2-2-2-0 goals scored away v 17th and over.
  • 67% of goals scored and conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Strong 2nd half scoring and conceding for both sides so lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Bristol City tend to score 2 goals v 17th and lower and that, if continuing, is a good foundation today.

Cardiff v Nottm Forest - 2.48 Cardiff

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/11 Cardiff home matches and in 8/11 Nottm Forest away matches against top-half teams. Nottm Forest have drawn the first half in 11/20 away matches.
  • No research 2.48 the favourite.

QPR v Derby - 2.4 QPR

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 QPR home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/9 Derby away matches against bottom-half teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 11/16 QPR home matches.
  • No research 2.4 the favourite. I will chat about it in the DRT Facebook video.

20:00 - West Brom v Preston - 1.71 West Brom

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 8/14 WBA home matches and +2.5 goals in 13/20 WBA home matches. Preston have conceded first in 10/20 away matches.

West Brom - 1st

  • 4 wins and a 2-2 last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 home matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v the top 18 - scored and conceded in all of those matches.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.

Preston - 6th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • 3 draws and 3 wins last 6 away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
  • Only 1 win v top 17 away.
  • 10/15 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Preston are in good form but what stands out is they have only 1 win v the top 17 away. West Brom have, though, been in poor form at home - only 1 win in 6 at home. But if they continue to score 2+ goals today, that could see them right.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

19:45 - Motherwell v St Mirren - 2.08 Motherwell

  • Match outcome: Motherwell have won 10/13 home matches against bottom-six teams while St Mirren have lost 6/8 away matches against top half non-Big One teams. Motherwell have scored first in 8/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Motherwell

  • 2-0 and 0-3 wins already this season.
  • Did lose to 9th and 11th at home, the only home losses v 5th and lower.
  • No win in 5 matches.
  • 61% goals scored, 70% goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

St Mirren

  • Since 27th November, only 2 wins, 1-0.
  • Only 1 away win was a 0-1 v 11th.

Conclusions

  • St Mirren's form is so poor that they are opposable? Motherwell have the double over St Mirren. If St Mirren wins, it tends to be 0-1 so lay them if they score first but take insurance out on the 0-1.