The newly promoted done tremendous and gave 110% again. Famalicao beat Sporting Lisbon. Add that to Granada beating Barcelona and Union Berlin beating Dortmund. I mention this because a certain Brescia are meeting a certain Juventus this evening. Do you smell an upset or will common sense prevail? The value is in the upset. Logic is with Juventus.
We also have the League Cup today which is an eminently tradeable competition. I will try and be awake for that. I hope some of you guys, in my potential absence, will use DRT Facebook to share your thoughts.
ENGLISH FOOTBALL LEAGUE CUP
19:45 kick off
- So....how do I approach League Cup matches. Firstly I acknowledge that some Premier League managers (Fergie a famous example) had a healthy disdain for this competition and would do everything in their power to fain interest but engineer an oh-so-unlucky 1-0 loss to get the friar tuck out of there at their earliest convenience. Secondly, I do note what I call 'gaps in the leagues'. A big gap in the league is to be welcomed. Lastly, team news is key. As I alluded to, some Premier League clubs see this competition as an irritation. We are likely to see peripheral squad players tonight.
- All that said, the in-play stats will reveal the attitude of these big sides.
- A quick thank you to those posting at the DRT Facebook page. I hope you guys will be there tonight for this eminently tradeable competition.
Portsmouth v Southampton - 1.77 Southampton
- South Coast derby of sorts.
- League One v Premier League. There's that healthy gap in form. But the 1.77 quote suggests the market is not wholly taken with the Saints.
- Portsmouth went out in extra time last year after playing just one match. That was a similar story in 2016. Either they don't want a cup run or they're just not good enough to get past that first hurdle.
- New manager for Saints and his first League Cup so a big question mark regarding his attitude. He put together a recent solid run only to be trounced, at home, by Bournemouth in another South Coast derby.
- In 2017, Saints were undone by Man Utd. In 2018, they beat Brighton, got past Everton in extra time, and lost on penalties after a 0-0 v Leicester. So far this campaign, a 0-1 win v Fulham might suggest an ability to cope with lower league opponents away from home.
Watford v Swansea - 1.66 Watford
- Premier League v Championship so not a hugely noticeable gap in form.
- Noticeably Swans' last 3 defeats in the league cup came at the hands of Premier League opponents at home.
- Wins for Watford in 2018 v Reading, a 2-2 draw losing on penalties to Spurs and a 3-0 home win v Coventry.
- No ultra strong angles here. Use the in-play stats to justify the odds.
Crawley Town v Stoke - 1.98 Stoke
- League Two v Championship.
- In 2015, 2016, and 2017 Crawley Town lasted just one match in the League Cup.
- Stoke are struggling in the league. In 2017 and 2018, Stoke lasted 2 matches in the League Cup. If I was the Potter's manager, I'd get the hell out of this competition and try, at least, to stay in the English Championship! To think that Stoke used to be regular Premier league.
- Stoke did go through on penalties away v Leeds in their last round.
Colchester v Tottenham - 1.23 Tottenham
- League Two v Premier League. Now that's a 'gap in the league'.
- Only 1 win recently for Colchester in the league cup came at home v Swindon.
- Tottenham last year in the League cup tended only to meet Premier league sides. They have only lost to Premier league opponents. We expect an away win. Do check team news for Spurs. Likely a big shake up in the squad.
Preston v Man City - 1.14 Man City
- It tends to be clean sheet wins for Man City in the League Cup.
- Championship side Preston have tended to concede 2 goals at least in the League Cup.
- A simplistic angle and an expectation for at least 2 goals from Man City. Given their record for clean sheets, if Preston score first, are they really going to follow up with a 2nd goal?
Luton v Leicester - 1.56 leicester
- Championship v Premier League. Newly promoted Luton and newly managed Leicester makes this a tough match to evaluate. Is Brendan 'Ted' Rodgers up for the Cup? He has been in Scotland so long that there is no record for us to work from. Team news important. This Leicester are solid having just beaten Tottenham in the Premier League at the weekend and if Rodgers is up for it, I will expect a positive result.
Sheff Wed v Everton - 1.79 Everton
- Oh no, not another fecking Sheffield team, the Everton manager will be musing.
- Championship v Premier League.
- A 0-2 loss v Sheffield United for Everton sees their manager under pressure. Something is wrong. How can you have a team with Kean, Iwobi, Richarlison and Calvert-Lewin and be struggling to score even one goal away from home?
- Sheff Wed lost to Wolves last year in the League Cup.
- We are getting into 'must win' territory for this Everton manager or he may have to join the queue behind Ole for the P45. Everton were knocked out of the League Cup by Chelsea and Southampton (on penalties) recently.
Arsenal v Nottm Forest - 1.46 Arsenal
- A very tradeable match for the Arse v Aston Villa in the league at the weekend.
- Noticeably in the League Cup, the only teams to have beaten Arsenal recently have been Manchester City and Tottenham.
- In 2017, Chelsea beat Forest in the Cup. They beat Premier league Newcastle 3-1 at home in the cup. Apart from that, all other wins were v non-Premier League teams.
- There is a feeling that Arsenal enjoy a cup run. Will their manager, 'Dick' Emery shuffle the pack. Note the huge importance of Aubameyang. He scored yet another winner at the weekend! Premier league v Championship.
ITALIAN SERIA A
18:00 - Verona v Udinese - 2.66 Verona
- +2.5 goals: Middle-third promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 51% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Udinese away matches against promoted teams. Udinese have lost 8/11 away matches.
- The odds suggest no trading angles here unless one appears in-play.
- Draw, win, 2 losses for Verona plays a win and 3 defeats for Udinese.
- Neither side has scored that 2nd goal this season. Any 0-0 at halftime did see at least a goal 2nd half.
- Bar that, little to entice after 4 matches.
20:00 - Brescia v Juventus - 1.59 Juventus
- Match outcome: Juventus have won 8/9 away matches against promoted teams and they have won by two or more goals in 6/9 such matches. Middle-third promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 51% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15.
- Granada v Barcelona......Union Berlin v Dortmund.....and we have it here. A newly promoted side, at home, meeting one of the elite in their league. We will likely see this Brescia side suddenly play above themselves today. Granada beat Barcelona by the way. Union Berlin beat Dortmund too!
- Brescia's 2 0-1 wins came away. They lost 3-4 at home v Bologna in a game where they led 3-1 and their red card changed the match.
- 3 wins and a 0-0 v Fiorentina (pre-Champions League) for Juventus.
- Can the unthinkable happen here? If you think so, then the value is in laying any Juventus lead. Surely the Old Lady won't go the way of Dortmund and Barcelona....will they?
SPANISH LA LIGA
18:00 - Valladolid v Granada - 2.44 Valladolid
- The market suggests trading angles may be tough to come by.
- Only 1 win for Valladolid came away. Only one home match was a 1-1 draw v newly promoted Osasuna. They play newly promoted Granada today, fresh from beating Barcelona at home.
- Granada are loving it in the Primeira Liga. 4-4 away at Villareal, 0-1 loss to Sevilla, and 3 wins to nil v solid yardsticks Espanyol, Celta Vigo (both away) and Barcelona at home.
- On this basis, newly promoted Granada look well drilled defensively and look to have goals in them. Yes the market is non-committal but it looks rather obvious based on the form to date.
19:00 - Betis v Levante - 2.04 Betis
- 1st goal: Real Betis have scored first in 8/11 home matches against middle-third teams while Levante have lost 10/13 away matches. Real Betis have won the first half in 7/11 home matches against middle-third teams.
- Only 1 win for Betis this season came at home v Leganes. 1-2, 2-1, 1-1 at home. Both teams are scoring. Both teams scored in 4 matches and then we had a 0-0 last match away to newly promoted Osasuna.
- Levante are unbeaten at home with 2 wins and a draw. 1-0 loss v Alaves and 3-2 loss v Real Madrid away from home.
- 2 of the lesser lights in the league. 0-3 loss and 4-0 loss for Betis v Levante last season. No strong angles in for me bar the home both teams to score pattern (small sample of 3 matches) for Betis.
20:00 - Barcelona v Villarreal - 1.33 Barcelona
- HT/FT: Barcelona have had W/W double results in 10/13 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams while Villarreal have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 trips to Big Two teams. Barcelona have won 11/13 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
- We are arguably entering 'must win' territory already for Barcelona. What a poor season, compounded by a 2-0 win for Granada last match. Yes, Messi and Suarez were injured early doors but they were available for the Granada loss.
- 5-2 wins in both home matches suggests at home is where we'll find the readier points.
- Barcelona, note, have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches and lost only one. Angle in?
- Villareal started the season with 2 draws and a loss away to Levante. 2 wins now v Leganes and Valladolid.
- The last time they met the Big 2 under the new manager, they lost 2-3 to Real Madrid.
- I would love Barcelona to continue their stuttering and concede 2 goals! Are we going to see them win this 'must win'?
FRENCH LIGUE 1
18:00 - Dijon v Marseille - 2.26 Marseille
- 1st goal: Dijon have conceded first in 8/10 home matches against top-six teams while Marseille have won 10/11 away matches against bottom-six teams. Dijon have lost 7/10 home matches against top-six teams.
- No win yet for Dijon this season. All defeats bar a 0-0 at home v Nimes last match.
- Dijon failed to score in 4 matches this season. If they score, and score first, will they really score a 2nd goal?
- Marseille lost their opening match and remained unbeaten afterwards. 3 wins in 4 for Marseille . 0-0, 1-2 win, 3-4 win. Please note that these 2 away wins were derby wins (Cote D'Azur derby wins v Nice and Monaco). Both teams scored in 3 of Marseille's last 4 matches.
- Dijon must(ard) win soon. Will it be today? Marseille look in reasonable nick but is their form flattering given 2 of the wins came in local derbies where Marseille are expected to play above themselves? I would tentatively side with Marseille and look to lay Dijon if they scored first.
20:00 - Monaco v Nice - 2.04 Monaco
- Match outcome: Monaco have lost 10/19 home matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 15/19 Nice away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Local derby so please note that.
- No win for Monaco this season. 3 draws in 4 matches. 0-3, 2-2, 3-4 at home for Monaco. Conceding 2+ goals. Will they return to form in this derby?
- All Nice wins have been 2-1 and all Nice losses have been.....2-1.
- 2-1/1-2 anyone?
- 1-1 and 2-0 loss for Monaco v Nice last season.
- On form, Nice may concede but not lose. But the derby factor may make it difficult to read.