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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, October 24, 2017

I am prioritising league matches ahead of cup matches today. Especially the English League Cup, where Premier League managers are in a race to exit it, looking as if they made the effort. You know, it looks a chock-full coupon this evening, full of interesting angles. German Cup, Spanish Cup, English League Cup will all be best served via the in-play stats and that is what I intent to do this evening. See you at around 19:30 on Twitter @drtclub.

ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP

19:45 - Arsenal v Norwich - 1.34 Arsenal

  • The last 2 premier league head to heads were tight at 1-1 and 0-1 Arsenal.

Arsenal

  • 6 wins and a loss to Watford recently. Good form.
  • 6 consecutive home wins in all competitions. 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • No draw in 8 League Cup matches. 3 wins to nil in 4 matches.
  • Arsenal actually have a poor home record which tells a story. They are not keen on this competition.
  • Since 2011 at home, Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss Win.
  • They only beat Doncaster 1-0.

Norwich

  • Unbeaten in 9 matches in all competitions.
  • 5 consecutive away wins in all competitions, saw 3 0-1 wins.
  • Unbeaten in 9 League cup matches. The only way they were beaten was via penalties.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 league cup matches and a recent 0-2 win v Everton catches the eye.

Conclusions

  • A very interesting league cup match in which I think Arsenal's odds are too short against a Norwich winning away and only losing v pens in their last 9 league cup matches.
  • To get value I would lay Arsenal if Arsenal led.

19:45 - Leicester v Leeds - 1.57 Leicester

Leicester

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches in all competitions came v Liverpool and Swansea.
  • Have scored at home in all competitions in each of their last 17 matches so expect a Leicester goal.
  • Teams beating Leicester at home in 2017? Chelsea (twice), Man Utd, Tottenham and Liverpool.
  • Leicester are unbeaten in 6 league cup matches, 3 of which went to extra time or penalties and were losses to Leicester.
  • This is the pattern at home 2 extra times and a win last 3 home matches.

Leeds

  • 4 defeats in 4 matches in all competitions.
  • Only 1 win in 5 away matches.
  • Since 2015, only Liverpool have beaten Leeds in the league cup.5 matches did go to extra time and penalties.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of 5 matches, the exception was the Liverpool match.

Conclusions

  • In 2017 at home, it takes a big name to beat Leicester. Leeds are not a big name (well they used to be back in the day!).
  • Both teams have a good league cup record and tend, since 2015, only to go out in extra time or penalties. I would not therefore discount a draw and I would expect Leicester, at the very least, not to lose today.

19:45 - Swansea v Man Utd - 1.55 Man Utd

  • Alex Ferguson treated the League Cup with disdain.
  • 1-3 and 0-4 the last times United visited the Swans.

Swansea

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches in all competitions.
  • 4 defeats in 5 matches at home.
  • Only 1 draw in the league cup since 2010. Can we safely avoid the draw this evening?
  • Since 2014, Man City, Hull and Liverpool have beaten the Swans in this cup.
  • Only 1 home loss in the cup since 2009 came last match, a 1-2 v Man City.

Man Utd

  • Only 3 losses since May 2017.
  • Lost to Huddersfield latest.
  • It takes a good un to beat Man Utd away, like Barcelona, Real Madrid and, um, Huddersfield.
  • 6 wins in 7 League cup matches. both teams scored in the last 3.
  • Hull beat United 2-1 in January 2017.
  • 3 losses in 4 aways in the league cup.

Conclusions

  • The Special One will not be crying were United to crash out. It seems they target away matches to make a quick exit from the League Cup. Recent defeats v MK Dons especially catch the eye.
  • We will see a large number of fringe players this evening for Man Utd which relays their attitude here. There is a quandry. United to not tend to do consecutive defeats. Remember they lost to Huddersfield last away match.
  • United lasted until January 2017 last League cup. Do we expect them to go deeper?
  • Lay any late draw based on the Swans?

19:45 - Bournemouth v Middlesbrough - 1.81 Bournemouth

  • Results shared in head to heads last year.

Bournemouth

  • Only 3 wins in 12 matches in all competitions.
  • Last 3 wins have been 2-1.
  • Only 1 win in 7 home matches.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's at home, one was a league cup 0-0 which ended with a 99th minute Bournemouth winner.
  • Only 2 defeats since 2014 in the league cup came v Liverpool.
  • 3 of the last 6 matches went to extra time. 2 extra time matches in the last 3.
  • 2 consecutive extra times at home sees 3 home league cup matches without a win.

Middlesbrough

  • No win in 5 in all competitions saw 3 score draws.
  • Only 3 away wins in all competitions since August 2016.
  • Unbeaten though in 5 aways seeing 2 wins and 3 draws.3-0-2-1-2 scored recently away. A concerted effort for goals away?
  • Only 1 loss in 11 league cup matches was v Everton.
  • 2 consecutive wins to nil v Scunthorpe and Aston Villa.
  • Only 1 loss in 12 aways.
  • 4 extra times in 6 away league cup matches.

Conclusions

  • Middlesbrough could be more competitive tonight. Look at their 4 extra times in their last 6 aways. 3 wins only since August 2016 away is dire stuff but vast recent improvement sees 5 unbeaten away and 2 of those 3 wins so Boro have obviously worked at something away from home.
  • I could see this ending a draw. 2 consecutive extra times at home for Bournemouth.

19:45 - Bristol City v C Palace - 2.74 Bristol City

  • A match to gloss over. The league cup is tough enough without looking into a 2.74 the favourite match!!

19:45 - Man City v Wolves - 1.17 Man City

  • A very interesting match with both teams riding high in their prospective leagues.
  • All about records tonight. Aguero can be City's all time scorer with a goal and they can record a 12th consecutive win so there are incentives.
  • Be wary that City may field academy players this evening.

Man City

  • 11 consecutive wins.
  • Unbeaten at home since 6th December 2016.
  • Since 2015 in the cup, they have only lost to Everton and Man Utd away from home.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • 7 wins and a 0-2 loss at home in their last 8 home league cup matches.
  • Have conceded in their last 4 league cup at home.

Wolves

  • New manager working like a charm. Top of the league.
  • Only 2 defeats this season.
  • Only 1 away loss this season.
  • Since 2015, only Newcastle and Middlesbrough have beaten Wolves in the cup.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets in the cup.and the last a 0-0.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats ended with a win v Premiership Southampton.

Conclusions

  • Team news vital for City to justify such short odds. They do tend only to lose to north west rivals in the league cup and then away from home.
  • Newcastle the last team to beat City at home in the league cup.
  • We have the added factor of aiming for a record breaking 12th win City.
  • City may concede a goal as they tend to do in the league cup at home. Ideally Wolves score first to allow a value trade (in which case 3-1 and any other home would appeal).

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Inter v Sampdoria - 1.51 Inter

  • Sampdoria won the last 2 head to heads.
  • Inter go top temporarily with a win.

Inter Milan

  • Unbeaten.
  • Only conceded at home in the Milan derby.
  • Failed to score last match, a 0-0.
  • Not played the current top 8 at home.
  • Scored first in every home match and led at halftime in 3/4.

Sampdoria

  • Only loss away v Udinese.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 6 of 8 matches.
  • Not played a top 8 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • Neither side has met a top 8 side (Inter at home) and Sampdoria overall so you could argue this is their first tester.
  • Inter Milan have done something. New signings? They are a lot more resilient this season. They tend to score first at home.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Inter leading in 3/4 at halftime although as I say this is a sterner test.
  • Sampdoria are scoring goals  (scored 2+ goals in 6 of 8 matches including Fiorentina, Torino and AC Milan) but Inter do look far better this season and should simply outscore Samp.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Hamilton v Partick - 2.64 Hamilton

  • After 3 score draws, Partick won 2-0 in the last head to head.
  • 10 matches into the season and these are bottom 3 sides.

Hamilton

  • Scored and conceded in each of their last 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of 5 at home. One win was a 3-0 v 9th.
  • 2-2 draw away v 11th. Are the lower reaches of the league within Diddy David Hamilton's grasp?
  • All over 2.5 goals bar the first match of the season.
  • That was the only match they failed to score in.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 6 goals conceded at home between 16th - 30th minute.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored at home first half.

Partick

  • Only win came last match at home.
  • No clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 0-0-1-1 scored away.

Conclusions

  • When bottom 3 teams meet there must be an expectation from the managers that they can end their woes against fellow strugglers.
  • Strictly on form, both teams are likely to score. We are likely to see a goal before halftime.
  • A slight nod towards Hamilton given their win at home v Dundee FC and 2-2 draw away v 11th. That said, Dundee FC was the sole win this season for Partick.
  • Do note the peculiar conceding for Hamilton 16th-30th minute. Hold out if you want for 0-0 to the 15th minute, then lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Hibernian v Hearts - 2.06 Hibernian

  • These 2 have only recently met in the FA CUP with Hibs remaining unbeaten and winning the home encounters.
  • Mid table both sides after 10 matches.

Hibs

  • Only 2 defeats came at home v Hamilton and Aberdeen.
  • 4 score draws in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score only in that last match, 0-1 Aberdeen.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of 9 matches.

Hearts

  • Hearts have played all bar 2 opening matches away from home so have had a tough opening set of fixtures.
  • Defeats away came v Celtic, Motherwell and Dundee FC.
  • Failed to score only once away, a 0-0 v Rangers.
  • Scored and conceded in each of their last 5 away.
  • 5 goals conceded away in the last 15 minutes of 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Hibs have FA Cup head to heads (and recent ones) to draw upon where they win at home and draw away.
  • Both teams could score today based on the first 10 matches although 2 1-0 scorelines have crept into Hibs last 3 matches.
  • Note Hearts are late conceders of first half goals. If 0-0 coming to the 30th minute, take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • This match could be one to back 2-1 and 1-2 pre match if these 2 keep up their both teams scoring patterns and based on Hearts 3 2-1 scorelines away v 4th, 8th, 9th and 10th.

19:45 - St Johnstone v Ross Co - 2.36 St Johnstone

  • 2-4 Ross County and 1-2 St Johnstone in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 2.36 odds again relays lack of market confidence in picking a side here.

St Johnstone

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Last home loss was v Rangers but prior to that, Win, Win, Draw, Win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches, all defeats.
  • A solid look to the home form, bar that loss v current 3rd placed Rangers.

Ross County

  • Only 3 wins all season, 2 wins in 3 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • All defeats v the current top 7 sees St Johnstone in 6th.

Conclusions

  • 2 of the lesser lights in the SPL. Not enough matches for me to be ultra confident but Ross County are showing a losing pattern v the top 7 sides, home and away.
  • Of course, if that continues, then it is advantage 6th place St Johnstone who, themselves, have failed to score in 3 matches and have 4 defeats in 5 matches BUT they have only lost to 3rd placed Rangers this season and won their other 3 home matches.
  • So a tentative nod towards the home side not to lose. Dare I remind you 2.36 fav is no fav at all as far as the market is concerned.