Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I am sorry I am a little light research-wise with the Europa League and Champions League at this stage of the competitions. There really is little to get our teeth into. The usual rules apply therefore - use the market and in-play stats to justify the favourites. There are a lot of short priced away sides today. And a couple of matches in which to try out the 20 minute 0-0 technique.

UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE QUALIFIERS

16:00 - FC Avan Academy v Lincoln Red Imps - 1.22 FC Avan Academy

  • Noah will be delighted with the performance of Avan, aka Ararat Armenia. He watched the home legs from the Ark.
  • Impressive 1st leg in the Champions League v Swedish Champions AIK but AIK came through on aggregate after an impressive win at home.
  • Avan now relegated to the Europa League and the odds look to be right against the Gibraltese side.
  • All I can say is to use the in-play stats to confirm the odds.

16:45 - HB Torshavn v Linfield - 2.66 HB

  • 2.66 favourites in the Europa League. Only the brave (or foolish) will be trading this one. If you are tempted please use the in play stats. I am taking the market hint here. 2.66 = no go zone.

16:55 - Shkendija v F91 Dudelange - 1.77 Shkendija

  • Macedonia v Luxembourg and you'd think anything Luxembourg would be opposable from a footballing perspective?
  • Shkendija are another victim of the Champions League, beaten over 2 legs by Estonians Nomme Kalju. Hardly solid form is it?
  • Dudelange drew their 2 Champions League matches but their home draw was a 2-2, the away a 1-1 so they failed via away goals v a Maltese side.
  • I'm going to stick my neck out here. Neither of these will be in the Europa League Final next year. A match which makes little appeal unless the in-play stats bring the match alive.

19:00 - FC Santa Coloma v FC Astana - 1.22 Astana

  • Andorra v Kazakhstan.
  • It looks a day of Champions League victims demoted to this Europa League. Santa Coloma lost to a Kosovan side.
  • Astana lost to Cluj. The market is really emphatic here considering Astana are the away side. So use the in-play stats to justify the odds.

19:30 - SP Tre Penne v FK Suduva - 1.17 FK Suduva

  • San Marino v Lithuania here and as above. Emphatic odds for a first leg away side. So take the hint via the in-play stats.
  • Expect 3/4 goals from Suduva if they play as per 1.17 shots. The adventurous amongst you might want to back 0-1, 0-2, any unquoted in the halftime market if the match is 0-0 after 20 minutes.

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUALIFIERS (CL)

  • First legs today.
  • I research early and Betfair included all matches under today's date. This has now been corrected so only Plzen, Saburtalo, PSV and The New Saints kick off today.

18:00 - Plzen v Olympiakos - 2.58 Plzen

  • Some big names appear today in the Champions League. The market cannot split these 2. I would note Olympiakos at home in this competition. No immediate angles.

18:00 - Celtic v Nomme Kalju - 1.05 Celtic

  • This is a Celtic who can beat Barcelona at home in the CL so this Estonian outfit should be put to the sword. Remember the 20 minute rule. Back 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted in the halftime market if 0-0 at 20 minutes.

18:00 - BATE Borisov v Rosenborg - 2.26 BATE

  • Soccerway has this down as 24th July so apologies if it is not on today's coupon. Betfair is showing as 23rd July.
  • Belarus v Norway.
  • Both leagues established, up and running this season.
  • BATE's losses last season in the CL came home and away v PSV so there is a hint that they could perform better v apparent lesser lights Rosenborg.
  • 3 draws and a loss at home for BATE though sees them stumbling.
  • They scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 CL home matches.
  • Rosenborg found Celtic trouble in 2017 and 2018.
  • Celtic are a little better than BATE.
  • If BATE score first, a suggestion to lay them given that both teams to score and score draw sequence?

18:00 - CFR Cluj v Maccabi Tel Aviv - 2.16 Cluj

  • Soccerway has this down as 24th July.
  • Romania v Israel.
  • Cluj lasted only one round last year v Malmo. Already this season they beat Astana.
  • Maccabi were last in the CL in 2015 and carry a 6 match losing streak into this year. No recent CL form for us to work from.

18:30 - Saburtalo v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.29 DZ

  • Saburtalo are an absolute unknown to me. They come from Georgia and I have never heard of them before.
  • DZ are the Croatian powerhouses whose season has just started.
  • Faith in the odds via the in-play stats here.

19:00 - The New Saints v FC Copenhagen - 1.28 FC Copenhagen

  • Wales v Denmark.
  • TNS got threw v a Kosovan side after drawing the home leg 2-2 and winning the away leg 0-1.
  • FC Copenhagen were last in the CL in 2017 so that form may not immediately be reliable today. Follow the market here again as we see another short priced away side.

19:00 - PSV v Basel - 1.57 PSV

  • The Swiss season has begun. The Dutch is yet to start.
  • PSV expect to go deep here. In 2018 they admittedly did not win but were playing the likes of Barcelona, Inter Milan and Tottenham in the group stages.
  • They scored in 5 of their last 6 home matches and remember played teams far better than Basel.
  • Basel played some solid sides in the CL last season such as CSKA Moscow, Basel, Manchester City and PAOK so may surprise.
  • Another for the in-play stats!

SWEDISH SUPERETTAN

18:00 - Jonkopings Sodra v Vasteras - 1.66 Jonkopings

Jonkopings (6th)

  • 2 wins and a 2-2 last 3 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • Only home loss v 9th.
  • Not conceded first half at home.

Vasteras (10th)

  • Only 4 defeats, 2 came away.
  • 2+ goals scored in last 4 matches.
  • Scored in all 4 defeats.
  • Away defeats v 2nd and 8th. Beat 4th and 5th away.

Conclusions

  • By my reckoning, Vasteras cannot be immediately dismissed. The market has done just that. What is with them generally scoring 2+ goals away v the top teams? How about beating 4th and 5th away and meeting 6th today.
  • I certainly think they can score today. If you are with the market, then lay Vasteras if they score first.