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Predominantly a cup day today so I will prioritize the league football, albeit lower leagues than I'd usually focus on.

ENGLISH LEAGUE 1

2 un-appetising matches as far as the market is concerned! I will research despite this and the fact the leagues are lowly.

19:45 - Plymouth v Walsall - 2.38 Plymouth

  • The home side has won each of the last 5 head to heads, albeit stretching back to 2011.

Plymouth (21st)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (36%).
  • v 9th and lower at home, lost only 2 matches in 10 - failed to score only once in those matches.
  • Only 2 home clean sheets.

Walsall (15th)

  • Only 3 wins in 16 matches.
  • Did win their last away match.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 9 matches.
  • Noticeably 5 wins away all came v 18th and lower.
  • 68% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Note the form. Plymouth only 2 losses in 10 v 9th and lower at home.....suggests they could cope with 15th.
  • But then we have Walsall, 5 away wins all came v 18th and lower away....meaning they are playing 21st today, a side in a position in which they collect their away wins.
  • For me it is Walsall who slightly get the nod with that consistent winning form v 18th and lower. Note the word 'consistent'.
  • But I freely acknowledge 2.38 the favourite in a League One match makes for a toughie. Ordinarily I leave these leagues alone.

19:45 - AFC Wimbledon v Fleetwood Town - 2.62 AFC Wimbledon

  • League One and 2.62 the favourite. I'll get me coat!
  • The last 4 league one head to heads have seen only 1 team score. Fleetwood, Fleetwood, AFC last 3 head to head winners.

AFC (24th)

  • We saw with Nurnberg at the weekend that we should be naturally inclined to oppose bottom of the league. 2.62 odds though suggests the market cannot immediately dismiss AFC.
  • 2 losses in 6 matches, a possible sign of recovery.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Loss at home again signs of recovery?
  • Only 2 clean sheets since 21st August 2018.
  • Wins at home v 10th, 20th and 21st were 2-1. Played only 3 teams v 6th-14th at home. 0-0, 0-0, 2-1 v 8th,9th and 10th at home.
  • 10 of 14 home matches saw both teams score.
  • Opponents have scored first in 9/14 at home.

Fleetwood (12th)

  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Only 1 win in 12 away matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away (43%).
  • 3 wins away v 7th, 16th and 20th.
  • Losses away v 21st and 22nd were 2-1.
  • Lost 0-1 to Wimbledon earlier in the season.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • With only 2 clean sheets since August, surely AFC are vulnerable to conceding. That's the first angle. They play 12th today and are unbeaten at home v 8th, 9th and 10th. Both teams may score in AFC home matches so if AFC score first, and if they continue to concede, then lay AFC if AFC scores first? This fits in with Fleetwood's 2 2-1 defeats v 21st and 22nd.

ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO

19:45 - Yeovil v Lincoln - 2.08 Lincoln

  • 0-2 Lincoln and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Yeovil (20th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • 2 of only 3 wins since 22nd September 2018.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (36%).
  • Only 1 win at home v 22nd and higher.
  • 1-0 losses home and away v 2nd. Signs of a tight match today?

Lincoln (1st)

  • Only 4 defeats, 3 were 1-0.
  • Failed to score in 3 defeats.
  • Only 1 loss since 3rd November 2018.
  • Scored in each of their last 11 matches.
  • 100% win record away v 16th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded in 7/8 matches home and away v 18th and lower.

Conclusions

  • The market is not too confident on top of the league, not even an odds on quote. Look though at the form v 18th and lower, scoring 2+ goals and winning away.
  • I would take that form. Lay Yeovil if Yeovil scores first - given that both teams to score pattern for Lincoln v 18th and lower. Yes, Yeovil are winning recently but only 1 home win v 22nd and higher.

19:45 - Forest Green v Grimsby - 1.81 Forest Green

  • 0-3 Grimsby and 1-4 Forest Green in the last 2 head to heads.

Forest Green (7th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches came last match.
  • 2 wins at home and a loss last 3 matches at home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 3 losses at home came v 2nd, 6th and 22nd. 2 of the losses v top 6 at home.
  • Conceded 2 goals only once at home v 2nd.
  • 8 of 13 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Grimsby (15th)

  • 3 consecutive losses ended 4 consecutive wins.
  • Only 2 away wins v 16th and higher came v 4th and 8th.

Conclusions

  • If Forest Green continue to be hard to score 2 goals against, then I must favour them today. So lay Grimsby if Grimsby scores first.

SPANISH COPA DEL REY

20:30 - Getafe v Valencia - 2.66 Getafe

  • this is the first of 2 legs . Add in the fact that it is 2.66 the favourite and I will leave this to the inplay stats. I do prefer the 2nd leg as we then have the first leg result to work from.

ENGLISH FOOTBALL LEAGUE TROPHY

This is not the league cup so I will not research, suffice to say I would note these 2 matches.

19:45 - Bristol Rovers v Port Vale - 1.99 Bristol Rovers

19:45 - Sunderland v Man City u21 - 1.6 Sunderland

I like the latter match in particular. Sunderland are in decent nick because they are in a lower league.
  • Only 2 losses in 26 matches for Sunderland in all competitions.
  • 5 1-1 draws in 7 matches though.
  • Only 1 home loss for Sunderland since 19th August 2018.
  • Sunderland are unbeaten in the EFL Trophy with a 0-0 and 4 wins. 3 consecutive clean sheets and predominantly playing under 21 sides.
  • This is enough to suggest Sunderland can get a positive result today.

ASIAN CUP

13:00 - South Korea v Bahrain - 1.3 South Korea

  • South Korea have a good Asian Cup record, 7 wins and 2 draws in 9. 3 2019 wins to nil v Philippines, Kyrgyzstan, and China.
  • Bahrain's 2019 Asian Cup matches came v UAE (1-1), 0-1 loss (Thailand), 0-1 win (India).
  • I take the South Korea win v China and the Bahrain loss to Thailand as key here. China beat Thailand at the weekend. So this collateral form is in South Korea's favour.