The market was right last night. 4 unfathomable matches and so it showed in the final scores. Whenever you see a favourite at odds of 2.4 or higher, that favourite is a favourite because, well, there has to be a favourite!
The Champions League is readable and I will do a Twitter live chat @drtclub. The Championship is tough to read. I have focused on the shorter odds matches.
17:00 - Spartak Moscow v Maribor - 1.27 Spartak Moscow
- Maribor are the team these other 3 in Group E give a spanking to.
- The Group is wide open between Liverpool, Sevilla and Spartak Moscow. Note Liverpool and Sevilla meet each other which presents Spartak with an ideal opportunity to at least leap-frog Sevilla and even end up level on points with Liverpool (result pending in that match).
- Both teams have scored in all of Spartak's group matches. A 1-1 draw v Maribor needs to be improved upon.
- Solid 1-1 v Liverpool and a 5-1 win v Sevilla suggests they should feel confident.
- That draw for Maribor was the only positive this campaign.13 goals conceded in their 3 other matches. If Spartak are as solid as they were v Sevilla, we should see a home win.
17:00 - Besiktas v Porto - 2.56 Porto
- Like last night, we see another market with a 2.4+ odds favourite. This suggests that this match will be tight.
- Besiktas remain top of Group G regardless of today's result.
- 1-3 Besiktas the last time these 2 met but as I say the market does not feel confident in a repeat.
- 3 wins and a draw for Besiktas. 2-0 v Besiktas and 1-1 v Monaco at home.
- This is a key match for Porto. 4 points shy of Besiktas. If Porto can win, they close the gap to 1 point with a match to play.
- Away from home, 0-3 win v Monaco and 3-2 loss to Leipzig, it seems a deliberate ploy for Porto to attack from the off.
- Look to a more competitive Porto tonight who I expect to score. Besiktas need a draw only this evening and will maintain a 4 point gap going into the last match.
- That I suppose is why the market is so non-committal.
19:45 - Sevilla v Liverpool - 2.58 Liverpool
- As with the Besiktas match above, the market cannot split these 2 sides.
- Only 1 point separates these 2 in Group E and with Spartak Moscow only 2 points shy of Sevilla, this match could be critical in determining automatic qualification from this group.
- A draw is tolerable but a win ideal.
- Sevilla have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 Champions League matches.
- In this group competition, Sevilla have scored 2,3,1,2 goals. A 2-2 draw with Liverpool at Anfield. Sevilla shockingly lost 5-1 to Spartak Moscow but beat them in the return home match 2-1.
- 2-2-3-2 goals scored by Sevilla in recent home Champions League matches. Note the only team they kept a clean sheet with was Maribor.
- 2-4-2-1-7-3 goals scored by Liverpool this Champions League. 2 consecutive clean sheets came only v the weak link Maribor.
- Liverpool have conceded in their away matches (bar Maribor).
- We could see both teams score today. What chance another 2-2 ? I will take that position today given the need for a win (and the hope of a comeback from either side if they concede first).
19:45 - Manchester City v Feyenoord - 1.13 Man City
- Those who read the research at the weekend and followed the live chat know that we targeted Feyenoord and layed them at odds of 1.1 and shorter as they led 1-0. Final score? 1-1.
- This is a weak, out-of-form, Feyenoord side who should be dominating in Holland.
- Feyenoord are yet to score a point in Group F whilst Man City have a perfect record.
- 0-4 the last time these 2 met. Man City have not scored less than 2 goals this Group Stage. 1.13 odds fits in with a 3/4 goal haul.
- Feyenoord have conceded between 2-4 goals in their 4 defeats. They did score in their last 3 defeats.
- Easy home win. Anything else, get stuck in. I expect 3/4 goals from Man City today. Feyenoord were unable to score against them first match but have scored in their last 3 defeats.
19:45 - Napoli v Shakhtar - 1.46 Napoli
- The other 2 teams in Man City's group. It is ......Shakhtar who are 2nd on 9 points, with Napoli 3rd on 3 points. Yes, I would have expected this the other way round, particularly as Napoli are so solid domestically.
- Napoli tend to avoid the draw in the Champions League. But 3 losses and a win is not what they had in mind. Napoli have goals in them but are conceding 1 or 2 more than they score in this competition.
- 2-1 Shakhtar in the last head to head.
- At home, Napoli beat Feyenoord 3-1 and lost 2-4 v Man City. If Napoli can continue to score 2 goals at least at home, they have a chance today.
- Shakhtar have had a great run. A rather inevitable loss to Man City but 3 other wins saw both teams score. Shakhtar's only away match in this group was a 1-2 win v Feyenoord.
- This is a must-win for Napoli. Napoli have 2 matches remaining. If they win these 2 and Shakhtar lose their last 2 then Napoli could nick 2nd spot on goal difference. They must take 3 points off Shakhtar this evening.
- I like Napoli's 2 goal pattern at least at home and that suggests we oppose any Shakhtar lead today.
19:45 - Monaco v Leipzig - 2.4 Monaco
- A 2.4 odds favourite . Yes, the market foresees a tight match.
- Monaco have had a terrible Champions League campaign in Group G.
- That said, bar runaway leaders Besiktas, If Monaco win their remaining 2 matches (and Leipzig and Porto do not), Leipzig could actually go 2nd.
- Leipzig are on 4 points and are more likely to realistically compete for 2nd in this group, than Monaco.
19:45 - APOEL v Real Madrid - 1.19 Real Madrid
- Group H is between Tottenham and Real Madrid, as Dortmund continue their careless season. This is a must-win for Real Madrid given that Dortmund and Tottenham could slit each others throats.
- APOEL's only positive results have come v Dortmund, 2 1-1 draws. Importantly, they lost 3-0 v Real Madrid and Tottenham.
- Real Madrid dropped points only against Tottenham.
- I do expect an away win today. best case for APOEL would be a 1-1 as they managed against an admittedly poor Dortmund.
- 3 goals best case for Real Madrid this evening.
19:45 - Dortmund v Tottenham - 2.26 Dortmund
- Group H is between Tottenham and Real Madrid. Dortmund and APOEL cannot improve their positions (realistically....).
- If Dortmund win tonight and win their next match, and Tottenham lose their remaining 2 matches, then Dortmund can get 2nd spot.
- This is a really poor season for Dortmund domestically, compounded by yet another 2-1 defeat v Stuttgart.
- 2 3-1 defeates for Dortmund v Tottenham and Real Madrid. 2 draws v APOEL. Dortmund are scoring and conceding.
- On that form, we must lay any Dortmund lead in this match.
- Tottenham are in great form in this Champions League with 3 3 goal wins v Dortmund, APOEL and Real Madrid.
- The only dropped points for Tottenham came v Real Madrid (1-1).
- So, expect both teams to score and, on form, Tottenham not to lose.
- Mathematically though, Dortmund are not out of this run for 2nd spot. It is unrealistic but still mathematically possible.
- Dortmund may be gung ho this evening knowing 3 points is key with only 1 match remaining. BUT Tottenham play APOEL in their last match.
19:45 - Aston Villa v Sunderland - 1.74 Aston Villa
Aston Villa (5th)
- Only 4 defeats all season. Going for promotion.
- Lost their last home match.
- 3 home wins prior to their home loss.
- Unbeaten v 20th and lower home and away albeit at home 1-0 and 1-1.
- Scored first in 5/8 at home.
- Only 1 win.
- 5 score draws in their last 7 matches. Competitive without winning.
- 1-2-2-3-0 scored recently away. 0 was v Boro in a derby.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- No halftime draw away.
- Not beaten a top 11 side home or away.
- 8 of 12 goals scored away came 1st half.
- Sunderland will be competitive but they simply cannot take that further step and turn a score draw into a win.
- On this form, I would suspect Sunderland remain competitive today without the win.
- With only 4 defeats, the probability is that Villa will draw or win.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Lay Sunderland if Sunderland scores first.
19:45 - Brentford v Burton - 1.47 Brentford
- 2-1 and 3-5 Brentford in the last 2 head to heads.
- Only 1 loss in 10 matches came last match, away from home.
- 5 draws and 2 wins last 7 at home. Not losing but dropping points with those draws.
- 3 goals scored in each of their last 2 home matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at home.
- Unbeaten v teams below them home and away.
- Scored 2 or 3 goals v bottom 4 teams.
- 7 goals scored at home last 15 mins of the away matches.
- Only 3 wins.
- Failed to score in 6 away before a 0-1 win last away match.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- 5 0-0's at halftime away.
- Not beaten a top 16 team home or away.
- On form, Brentford should be eyeing a win, even a win to nil.
- Expect 2/3 goals from Brentford
- Do note the late goal scoring from Brentford at home and keep the faith if this is 0-0 or 0-1 late on.
19:45 - Derby v QPR - 1.9 Derby
- 2 consecutive 1-0 wins for Derby in 2 head to heads.
- Only 4 defeats.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- 2-5-1-2-2-2 goals scored at home recently.
- No 0-0 at home.
- Wins v 10th, 11th, 14th and play 15th today.
- Only 5 wins all came at home.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
- Scored and conceded in 6/7 matches v top 10 teams.
- Note QPR have had a recent away habit of scoring and conceding without winning - this suggests laying QPR if QPR scores first.
- I like Derby's recent goal scoring at home. If they score 2 goals again today, that should be enough.
- I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on QPR.
19:45 - Bristol City v Preston - 2 Bristol City
- 3 consecutive Preston wins in head to heads.
Bristol City (4th)
- Only 2 defeats so a surprise not to see an odds on quote for Bristol City. Is this down to head to heads?
- Failed to score in 2 of their last 3 home matches. Add that to another 0-0 last match (away) and Bristol City have had a reputation for being frustrating in front of goal.
- Only 1 home loss.
- No win in 7 matches.
- Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
- 3-2-2-2-0 scored away recently. Interesting.
- Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- Not beaten a top 9 team away.
- 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Preston have failed to score away v 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th, and there have been 0-0's v 6th and 7th away.
- I would take a chance and back 0-0 pre-match given Bristol City can blow hot and cold. Slight risk as sights are lowered for Bristol City.
19:45 - Sheff Utd v Fulham - 2.16 Sheff Utd
Sheff Utd (2nd)
- No draw.
- 11 wins in their last 14 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- Only 1 home loss.
- Been a bit tight in home wins. 1-0 v 9th; 0-1 v 12th; 1-0 v 13th; 1-0 v 16th; 2-1 v 19th. So yes, they are winning but it requires a working defence.
- No 0-0.
- Scored first in 6/8 at home.
- Led at halftime in 5/8 at home.
- Only 4 wins, scoring and conceding in 3 of the 4.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Conceded in each of their last 12 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 away.
- Lost to 1st and 5th away.
- Note Sheff Utd have been winning, but just about winning. Will that be the case today? They tend to score first at home and lead at halftime so there may not be a trading angle today.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market on that basis.
- Fulham have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches. That may be dangerous for Sheff Utd with their 3 1-0 wins at home. Yes they won 2-1 v 19th and that might be the case today if they are to win.
- I would lay Fulham if Fulham score first given that they have kept only 2 clean sheets.